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If first round QBs are "destined busts" as people like to refer them to...
By
frash.exe,
in Carolina Panthers
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Even limited as he was I still don't think they have replaced his production, and not just the sack stats. The games Clowney missed it was very obvious what his value still was. Risky move but whatever. They only had 32 sacks last year and if that drops then it's going to get ugly. I see the improvement in run stopping but not in pass protect in any way. -
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Sorta related. I just looked up a stat: Success rates for NFL draft's second rounders. I was surprised that it is 49%. The success rate for first rounders is 58%. Here success does not mean those that did not bust, it means that roughly half of the players selected in the second round become full-time starters at some point in their careers. Busts do that too. However, considering the fact that a first round talent is worth up to 1800 points (first overall pick) more than the first pick of the second round and as low as 350 points (last pick in first round) higher than the last pick in round 2, it seems there could be cases in which it would be to your advantage to trade out of round 1 and draft two or three second rounders for the value. Of course, the elite players are likely to be gone, and some positions overwhelmingly suck after round 1 (traditionally, like QB or LT, for example), but if you need to find starters at positions like DT, G, LB, S, C, TE, RB, etc, there could be a time when you trade back for more starters. I was surprised that the margin between rounds 1 and 2 was only 9%. While I realize that some of you sofa scholars are thinking, "Well duh? Trading back gives you more players." as you wipe the Cheetos off your shirt. Not the point. The point is you have to consider the draft,the needs (and the number of them), and you need to scout the second and third rounds like you do the first, the cap, and the long-term impact. If you can find 2 players with a 49% chance of becoming a starter, are you better off than drafting one player who has a 58% chance in the long term? So if I traded away my first rounder for two second rounders (a trade most teams would make) regularly, when I got 10 second rounders (by trading 5 first rounders), 5 would be starters. If I did not trade and kept my 5 first rounders, 3 would be starters. Furthermore, their rookie contracts would be much cheaper than the 5 first rounders.
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