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Cam Is My 11th Ranked QB of 2012 w/ QBA of 58.42. Peyton is 1st with 66.68 QBA


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#1 fieryprophet

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 02:23 AM

http://50.116.44.142...&type=all&min=3

Also of note is that today's game is Cam's first ever upset win, where his QBA was lower than his opponent but he still won. He has been on the flip side of that five times in his career, so it was great seeing the team finally pull one out without him needing a big game.

Finally, starting from the last Tampa Bay game on Cam averaged a QBA of 65.45, compared to 52.95 up to that point. In other words, he went from playing like Jake Locker to playing like Peyton Manning.

http://50.116.44.142...-12-30&type=all

#2 teeray

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 02:31 AM

I'll take it. Good job BTW.


































nerd
  • Dex PIE'd this

#3 The Special One

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 02:34 AM

I'll take it. Good job BTW.


































nerd


haha

#4 fieryprophet

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 02:37 AM

I am a nerd :(

But thanks, overall I'm very happy with how my metric has turned out. It finished 8 games ahead of passer rating and is essentially tied with ESPN's QBR despite them spending millions and including a bunch of number manglers in their system.

Also, if the QBA differential is to be believed Denver looks like the best shot to win it all this year.

#5 Guest_Irv_*

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 02:37 AM

I'm sorry but i can't be the only one that feels like QBA ratings is a load of horseshit

#6 The Special One

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 02:39 AM

I'm sorry but i can't be the only one that feels like QBA ratings is a load of horseshit


haha

#7 fieryprophet

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 02:40 AM

I'm sorry but i can't be the only one that feels like QBA ratings is a load of horseshit


What makes you think that? You can see how the formula is calculated right here: http://50.116.44.142/qba/about/

(And I wrote the damn formula :P )

#8 teeray

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 03:00 AM

I am a nerd :(

But thanks, overall I'm very happy with how my metric has turned out. It finished 8 games ahead of passer rating and is essentially tied with ESPN's QBR despite them spending millions and including a bunch of number manglers in their system.

Also, if the QBA differential is to be believed Denver looks like the best shot to win it all this year.


I don't get ESPN's QBR.

I think their "clutch" weight is over weighted or something.

For instance. When we beat the poo out of San Diego, Cam completed just under 60% of his passes for 231 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. We dominated the game and converted 7 out of 14 third downs and Cam had a QBR of only 53.4

It actually hurts a QB to beat the hell out of someone. If it is a close game your QBR will go way up but if even you dominate you will have an average QBR unless you score like 35+ points.

I think their "clutch" thing fugs it up.

#9 fieryprophet

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 03:10 AM

I don't get ESPN's QBR.

I think their "clutch" weight is over weighted or something.

For instance. When we beat the poo out of San Diego, Cam completed just under 60% of his passes for 231 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. We dominated the game and converted 7 out of 14 third downs and Cam had a QBR of only 53.4

It actually hurts a QB to beat the hell out of someone. If it is a close game your QBR will go way up but if even you dominate you will have an average QBR unless you score like 35+ points.

I think their "clutch" thing fugs it up.


Their clutch mangling also made it seem like The Golden Calf of Bristol was outplaying Aaron Rodgers last year. It's a stupid attempt to answer the flawed question "but isn't a 10 yard completion on 3rd and 9 better than a 15 yard completion on 4th and 20?"

Guess what, for one play, maybe, but for an entire game, no. Good quarterback play means succeeding a lot of small plays and a few big ones, not subsisting entirely on a diet of "clutch" plays. Not only will the numbers eventually balance out but you actually introduce more statistical randomness by overweighting inherently infrequent plays.

#10 Marguide

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 03:12 AM

Just so I understand, are you judging the effectiveness of your QBA by whether or not the team with the higher rated QB wins?

If so, can you share with us the thought process behind that? While it looks to be a very good predictor, it is just surprising to me that QB performance alone would correlate so well with wins.

Or am I just totally off base in how I'm looking at your data?


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