• The historic probability of drafting a five-year starter at a particular playing position in a Value Group, divided by
• The historic probability of drafting a five-year starter at that same playing position in all later
Value Groups, times
For example, 64.0% of wide receivers drafted in the first 13 selections have gone on to become five-year starters while 13.0% of wide receivers drafted after that have achieved that status. So the Urgency Index is 492, calculated as 64.0%/13.0%, or 4.92, multiplied by 100.
The following table shows the Index for each playing position in the first six Value Groups. There is no Index for picks 190 and later (Value Group 7) because there are no later draft selections to consider.
draft value chart.jpg 55.06K 79 downloads
A higher Index means that history suggests there is more urgency to draft a player at a given playing position in that Value Group. An index of 100 means that players drafted later have had the exact same level of success as those drafted in the current Value Group. An index of less than 100 indicates that players drafted later have actually had more success than those in the current Value Group. The Index is only used within a Value Group. That is, it is meaningless to compare the Index for selections 1-13 to the Index for selections 14-40 because the numbers are not comparable. The sole purpose of the Index is to allow comparisons WITHIN a Value Group.
As an example of how the Index would be used, consider a team that needs help at both linebacker and wide receiver and is drafting in the top 13 selections. In this example there are equally rated players available at both linebacker and wide receiver. With no other considerations in play, the wide receiver would be selected first because wide receiver has an Index of 492 versus 405 for linebacker. This means there is a greater chance of drafting a linebacker who starts for five years later in the draft than there is for a wide receiver.
The more data points there are, the more meaningful the Index. Quarterback has relatively few data points, so the Index approach may be less meaningful there. Plus, a team should never wait to draft a game changer at quarterback and a team would be unlikely to resort to the Index in that situation anyway.
our positions seem to match up well with our needs, particularly our 2nd round pick. Unfortunately 14 is right on the cusp of two groups, oh well.