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NanuqoftheNorth

"Wheel concept" to replace draft lottery?

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Grantland.com reports that the NBA is set to consider and bring to its owners within the next year a proposal that would radically change the way the draft order is determined. It inolves a cyclical pattern of set draft order, repeating every thirty years. In short, each team would know precisely what pick it will have until infinity.

Grantland obtained a copy of the proposal, which would eliminate the draft lottery entirely and replace it with a system in which each of the 30 teams would pick in a specific first-round draft slot once — and exactly once — every 30 years. Each team would simply cycle through the 30 draft slots, year by year, in a predetermined order designed so that teams pick in different areas of the draft each year. Teams would know with 100 percent certainty in which draft slots they would pick every year, up to 30 years out from the start of every 30-year cycle. The practice of protecting picks would disappear; there would never be a Harrison Barnes–Golden State situation again, and it wouldn't require a law degree to track ownership of every traded pick leaguewide.

Put another way: The team that gets the no. 1 pick in the very first year of this proposed system would draft in the following slots over the system's first six seasons: 1st, 30th, 19th, 18th, 7th, 6th. Just follow the wheel around clockwise to see the entire 30-year pick cycle of each team, depending on their starting spoke in Year 1.

The idea here would be to eliminate tanking. If you knew you couldn't get higher than "X" spot, you wouldn't have incentive to make your team worse or try to lose. There are complications though, setting up situations in which teams would essentially be dying on the vine for six years.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24385704/report-nba-set-to-consider-wheel-concept-to-replace-draft-lottery

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It's better but I still don't know why it has to be so complicated.   I'd rather the bad teams get the best picks with a formula using the previous year and the previous 5 and 10 years.  

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On the other hand, teams that make poor choices with their draft picks will have to suffer the consequences, knowing they won't get another chance at a high draft pick for awhile.

 

Also, luck of the draw will still be involved depending on the level of talent to choose from in any given draft.

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I am not sure that the previous method of just basing order of selection, worst to first like the NFL, isn't the way to go.

 

It is not perfect, but neither is the ping pong or once every 30 year wheel method.

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After reading that grantland article about five times just to try and understand that concept... I have come to conclusion that, that idea is stupid and will not be passed.

 

If you are so hard-headed to where you don't want to implement an NFL style draft, then implement a pre-2013 NHL draft system... the bottom three teams will be included in a drawing to determine the top three teams (held live, not revealed live). Every other team will draft based on record.

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After reading that grantland article about five times just to try and understand that concept... I have come to conclusion that, that idea is stupid and will not be passed.

 

If you are so hard-headed to where you don't want to implement an NFL style draft, then implement a pre-2013 NHL draft system... the bottom three teams will be included in a drawing to determine the top three teams (held live, not revealed live). Every other team will draft based on record.

 

This. There's only one reason not to have an NFL style, and that's for a Stern/NYK/Ewing scenario. If they won't allow an NFL style system, I'd be in favor of the NHL style as a compromise to the current system. 

 

The whole wheel thing is stupid. If there's a draft year where a without a doubt #1 pick is expected to come out, but say the Bucks are slotted for the first pick, that kid may stay in school and come out a year later knowing for a fact that maybe the Lakers have the #1 pick the following season. 

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Awful idea.  If you miss on your #1 pick, or pick #1 in the weak draft then you have done nothing to improve your team and now have to pick 30, 19, 18 the next three years?  Talk about a sure fire way to get a fanbase(s) to give up entirely.  Also, it would give even more power to players like Wiggins, who could now choose to stay in school one extra year if this year's #1 is the Bobcats and they would rather go #1 next year to the Lakers.

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why not just use the average of the last 3 years, with a slight bit of 5 year average, so taht teams that are *historically* bad get good picks?  No GM can convince an ownership group they're going to tank for 3+ years I'd imagine

 

This is an AWFUL idea and would destroy the chance of so many teams to rebuild.

 

Top 3 teams with a lottery isn't bad, NFL system isn't bad either.  But this is an idea that would kill rebuilding processes, imo

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I am not sure how going to a MLB/NFL system would reduce tanking.  If anything I think it would do more to ensure that tanking is a successful tactic.  Now if you tank and have the worst record you improve your chances of #1.  In that scenario if you tank and get the worst record you are guaranteed #1.

 

Maybe adjusting the lottery so that teams that just miss the lottery have better than a 0.3% chance and there is not such an advantage to completely tanking would help?  Worst four records get a 10% chance, next five teams gets a 8% chance, last five teams get a 4% chance.

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