AU-panther

gloves, and small hands, and short arms are things that matter in theory but if in practice the results are fine then they really don't matter. If the ball gets to the receiver with good accuracy, timing, and velocity the fact it came from a gloved/ungloved hand is irrelevant.

I didn't say anythign about passing on anyone, but this idea that a top 10 pick guarantees you top-3 type of talent at any position is just wrong. Speaking of slater, is he top 3, everyone probably thought Sewell would be, that is 2 of your top 3. That means only one of the three top tackles in this class can be. See, the math doesn't really work does it? Casual fans always have unrealistically high expectations of draft picks. I'm not saying any of these tackles will or won't be, I actually really like this tackle class, but statistically speaking the chance of a top 10 tackle becoming top-3 talent is more unlikely then it is likely.

How long of a career do most top 3 LTs have? 10-15 years? During that time how many LT prospects are drafted in the top 10? As you can see the math doesn't add up, they can't all become top 3. The fact is the chance of any LT drafted becoming top 3 at their position is the exception, not the rule. Fans have a bad habit of convincing themselves that every top-10 pick is a future hall of fame player.

there is some logic in that. Throw Howell in that also. Between those 4 you would think at least one will be there at 15-20, and history tells us its a gamble anyway. but what often happens is the teams will evaluate all of them and at some point one or two will become a lot more desirable to them so the teams will be scared to trade down.

its not even Pickett so much of the idea that they might not convince themselves that will have another chance to draft a QB this high again. I don't see Rhule, or Fitterer, or Morgan working on the assumption they will have a top-5 pick next year, or probably even top-10. I think we can all agree they have been pretty aggressive this offseason, right or wrong they are expecting to be better next year.

yep, and I've seen a few anylyst who really like him. Honestly this is an odd QB class, its truly going to be "beauty is in the eye of beholder." I think there is going to be a huge variance among the QBs rankings on different teams' boards. I could easy see Pickett, Willis, or even Howell going 1st. People probably think I'm crazy saying Howell, but he was really highly thought of going into the season. Teams don't get caught up in the moment as much as fans. Teams probably already had a pretty high grade on him. I think PFF has him as their top QB, prospect as well. Like you said it only takes one.

the arm thing is overplayed by this fanbase. Pickett doesn't have an elite arm like a Cam or Allen, but who does, but he has an above average arm that can make all of the throws. This idea that he is some low ceiling, Bridgewater clone is just wrong. Bridgewater was a risk adverse prospect with probably a below average arm. People act like Pickett is some undersized, weak armed, unathletic prospect and he isn't. He has good size, 6'3" around 220lbs, above average athlete, above average arm. If I remember correctly I saw a tweet one time that he actually led all college QBs in passes and TDS over 20 yards, that in itself isn't indicative of low ceiling. The biggest issue with Pickett isn't tools, its the fact he had one great season and that scares people. Also the hand size is a concern for some, just like arm length for tackles some people shy away from that. If Pickett had multiple seasons like 2021 he would be the top pick in the class, its not the tools holding him back. He might very well not work, but lets be honest the vast majority of QBs don't work out.

I believe there will be some teams out there that have Ridder higher on their boards than what most fans think. Some team might get him at 25 and in reality, have him as QB2 on their board and be ecstatic about the pick.

I'm usually as skeptical as anyone when it comes to news but it very well could be true like you say. A lot of us fans want to wait until next year to draft a QB in a more talented class but a lot of fans are also expecting to to be drafting in the top-5. I feel pretty confident in saying that Rhule, and Fitterer, and Morgan aren't expecting to be drafting in the top-5 next year based on all of the moves they have done the offseason. They might very well be wrong, but they don't' have that mindset. What if end up drafting 12-15 next year, at that point we might end up with QB5. This year at 6 we could easily get QB1. It is not crazy at all to believe that they might like the top QB in this class as much as the 4th or 5th QB in next years class. Here again they might be wrong, but its not crazy to believe they are thinking that way.

do you really think they are doing all of this to make Cam successful?

I'm not saying he should be the pick, or shouldn't be, but if the goal is to win now and save a job, I could see him being the pick.

pure speculation on my part Does the Bozeman signing provide a clue? After the Corbett signing I was thinking an O-line like this: LT(pick 6), BC, Elflein, Corbett, and Moton. Was actually pretty happy about this. After the Bozeman signing though maybe the line looks like this: BC, Elflein, Bozeman, Corbett, and Moton. What is the chance we have convinced ourselves that BC is "good enough" that we can now use the first pick on a QB? Showing progress with a rookie QB would definitely be one way to keep your job, and they have definitely spent some resources on the O-line to help whatever QB succeed. Like I said this is all just speculation, maybe they just move Elflein to a backup job, maybe the line will be LT(pick 6), BC, Bozeman, Corbett, and Moton.

not to mention all of these moves being made might be to help the QB drafted this year succeed

we didn't get a top-5 pick this year with one of the worst O-lines in the league. he was here this past year also and we didn't get a top-5 pick with the earlier mentioned terrible O-line. I'm not saying we are a playoff team, also drafting a LT this year and maybe a QB next isn't a terrible idea but counting on a top-5 pick is a bit foolish, or at the very least risky.

even if it isn't meaningless there are more things to consider. Cleveland just released Tretter, who by most accounts is a top-10 center, for cap reasons. His salary this year was going to be around $8m. #6 pick is going to cost $8m a year, why would you use an $8m pick to draft a guy that at best saves you about $8m in free agency. If he turns out average you are losing value. A top-10 LT or edge will cost you $20m in free agency, if you draft a LT and he turns out just average you are still adding value at $8m. People get caught up with this idea of importance, you also have to look at replacement cost. Positional value relative to winning and losing on the field isn't the same as positional value relative to cap dollars. another way to look at it: Lets assume Cross and Linderbaum both turn out good. Draft Linderbaum for Center and sign Armstead for LT, total cost will be around $28-30mm Draft Cross for LT and sign Tretter for Center, total cost will be around $16-18m. You just saved $10m that you can spend on another player.

like I said earlier, there is no miracle involved. With a basic understanding of the cap and simple math it was all predictable. Also there are other teams over the cap also, who will also restructure and cut players to get under the number. TB is still $21m over and I'm sure next off season there will be other teams over the cap at some point who will have to restructure players. As Panther fans we tend to notice the Saints. Looking back some of the early teams that DG had were some of the most leveraged teams I've every\ seen. There was literally almost nobody left to restructure or cut to create cap space. Basically the credit cards were maxed.

If they are talking about Davis, he is a 340lbs DT who ran a fast 40 at the combine and tested unbelievable well, limited snap guy in college though. People are hoping he becomes Vita Vea. Before the combine was considered more of a late 1st type of guy, not #6 overall. His teammate is actually moving up draft boards somewhat and might go a lot higher than a lot of people think Travon Walker Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

Personally I would like to find a LT, but this idea of "one of the top 3 tackles" might be a bit overplayed by us fans. There is a very good chance that the Panthers or any team for that matter might have a gap between OT2 and OT3. Board could be something like OT1 >OT2> DE2> CB1>>>>OT3. In theory in that situation you would try to trade down if you are determined to fill that need but trading down is easier said then done.

nice work^ and like you said you can easily add 2 voidable years. 3yr/28.5m can easily be turned into a 1st year cap cost of around $4m

They could still restructure/cut guys like Jenkins, Davis and Roby and come up with another $20-25m

agree, this idea that Loomis is some genius that can do things that no other GM can is ludicrous. They are doing the same thing other teams do and to be honest its simple math, most fans just don't want to take time to figure it out, same could be said about the media. When everyone was reporting them to be 50-60 million over the cap and wondering how they were going to get under you could look at their books and predict the moves. Even without cutting players most teams usually have a few players in the current year with large current year salaries that can restructure. For example Roby has a $9m salary this year, they could easily convert it to a signing bonus and free up $8m this offseason if they need it. Also fans have a habit of seeing what they want to see, they see the Saints adding certain players but they don't notice the guys that the Saints have had to release or let go over the years. They don't notice the amount of dead money that the Saints carry at times. What has helped the Saints more than anything over the past 5 years was their 2017 draft class, which might go down as one of the best draft classes ever that didn't include a QB. Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, and Kamara were all good players on really cheap rookie deals. Even Hendrickson who didn't play much early, started games during his 4th year and then signed a good size free agent deal last year which will now get the Saints a 3rd round comp pick.

It does matter what position you pick because the #6 pick averages $8m a year. If he turns out to just be average you just lost value because centers are cheap on the open market. Look at Tretter being released by the Browns. What makes more sense? Draft a center and pay him $8m a year and sign Armstead to play LT at $20m a year in free agency. Draft a LT and pay him $8m a year and sign Tretter to play center at $8m a year in free agency. You just saved $12m you can spend to upgrade your team at a different position.

Why would you spend $8m a year on a player who might become a good center when a proven good center just hit the market because he was a cap casualty because he was due around $8m? Another way to look at it: Pay Armstead $20m to play LT and draft Linderbaum to play center at $8m or Pay a FA like Tretter around $8-10 a year, or less, to play Center and draft a LT such as Cross to play LT at $8m a year. You basically just saved $10 to $12 million that you can spend on another free agent.

and this is why you have to be carefull about drafting a center at #6. Jones is one of the better centers in the league and just got a deal for $7m a year. The #6 pick will get a deal at almost $8m a year, if you draft a center that high he better be elite or you just lost value on a cost controlled contract.

there is a large contingent around here looking for a sure thing, that might never happen