kungfoodude

Given how all caps he got, I am assuming Stafford bored out his sister or wife or sister/wife.

Well, let's say we hypothetically still have our first round draft pick and STILL take a QB in the draft. Maybe not a reasonable scenario but a possible one. Like I said, I wouldn't pass judgement on what we are going to do until I see what the plan is. Then we can debate whether or not we agree with the direction. Me personally? I have always liked Stafford and I'd be glad to have him, as long as we don't sell the farm to get him.

Yeah but we also have no idea about what the scenario is going to be. Perhaps he loves Saleh and wants the Jets or no one? Or maybe Miami? It's kind of absurd for people(including OP) to be so definitive about a scenario that is entirely theoretical. It's like trying to solve for a multi-variable equation with only one factor known. Conventional wisdom would dictate that Watson's value should be historically high. But that is also not factoring in that he has a no-trade clause, that's not factoring in how long the Texans take to blink(imagine a world where they don't blink until after the 2021 Draft and now teams have established QB positions), that's not factoring in the unknown salary cap for 2021 due to COVID, that's not factoring in the fact that this is the Texans and perhaps they are just fuging stupid and bungle this. I don't think you can say with any certainty what will or won't happen. Too many factors involved.

Not to mention 5th all time in career passing yardage in NFL history.

I am open to whatever works, essentially. Obviously the preference would be to snag a QB in this draft that inevitably becomes "The Guy" and we ride off into the sunset with our new franchise QB. However, we all know that drafting a QB is a crapshoot, hence the reason why we have only had one in our entire franchise history. So that rookie to build around may also be the thing that sets us back on the path to RE-rebuilding if we don't get it right. Stafford and Teddy are apples to oranges comparisons. Matt Stafford could potentially enter next season as the third highest active leader in passing yardage in the NFL and currently on pace to eclipse Aaron Rodgers if he plays the same length of career. I'd equate Stafford much more to someone like Matt Ryan than Teddy Bridgewater. Would I take a 32 year old Matt Ryan right now? Absolutely. Especially with perhaps 6-8 years more of playing life left in him.

Well, I mean Brett Favre's was only 3.3%. He's a gunslinger. Philip Rivers is only 2.6%. He's a gunslinger. Jamies Winston's is only 3.4%. He's a gunslinger. Baker Mayfield's is only 2.9%. He's a gunslinger. INT% isn't a good stat to isolate to interpret if a player is a gunslinger, IMO. Hell, watch Trubisky play and it immediately becomes obvious he's a gunslinger. He takes far greater risks than a game manager would or just a more conservative QB. I'll give you a good example of what I mean. If you look NFL Next Gen Stats metric called "Aggressiveness" he was the fourth most aggressive QB in the NFL this season(21.2% of his completions/incompletions to a receiver that had a defender within 1 yard or less). In 2019, he was 13th. In 2018, he was 8th. In 2017, he was 19th. So, outside of his rookie year, he has been one of the most consistently aggressive passers in the NFL. Again.....a gunslinger. He also shares some of the other gunslinger traits....those crippling INT's that lose games. Being insanely hot or cold, depending on how his gambling is paying off. He is a gunslinger, same as Winston is. The question is whether that is something Joe Brady can deal with. I can give you this one tidbit, his former understudy Joe Burrow did finish #3 in the NFL in Aggressiveness rating last season. So.......maybe Winston or Trubisky are worth a shot for us.

He does have all this leverage but that doesn't mean he will use it. We simply cannot know what he will do until he does it. Maybe as mad as he is at the Texans he doesn't want to go scorched earth and fug them that hard? Maybe he just wants to leave the Texans and doesn't care where(I kind of doubt that scenario)? He isn't a free agent but he does actually hold most of the cards in the forced trade scenario precisely BECAUSE of that no-trade clause. But, we have no idea when/if/how he decides to play those cards. I have never waivered from saying this is all speculation. I'm just painting the various scenarios that COULD happen and the ones I think are most LIKELY to happen.

It's a short term fix with long term potential that is much greater than with Bridgewater. Stafford is only 32, he's an established NFL QB that has had some very good results. He's probably in that group underneath the elite guys, so he still has the potential to make that jump in some sense. The big bonus is that if we decide to get out of his deal, there are no dead money ramifications to us. We could get out at any point in 2021 or 2022 with little to no cap hit. Again, depending on price, he is probably cheaper than he would be on the free agent market. It's also not a bloated contract. Teddy is due $23 mil in 2021 and $26 mil in 2022. Stafford would be owed $20 mil in 2021 and $23 mil in 2022. He's actually cheaper than Teddy, although, as you pointed out that doesn't account for how much cutting Teddy will hit our cap. I am definitely not against getting a guy like Stafford. I just need to know the scenario to decide whether I agree with it or not.

There is literally no telling. Remember, all this trade talk is 100% theoretical based on him being very upset. He may not even want to get traded at all. Until he or his reps or people near him start whispering to reporters about his intentions, this is all speculative. I can tell you where I THINK he SHOULD go but I have zero idea what his desires are for his career path. I couldn't even begin to accurately surmise that. And "for what?" That can't be known until the scenario is known. What if he says, "Anywhere but Houston?" Well, that means the bidding war is on and it could indeed be at the extreme prices that some have speculated. What if he says, "Only *insert 2-3 teams*." Well, now you have a pared down bidding war. Could get extreme if one team really, really wants him and is willing to do anything. What if he says, "Only *insert team*." In that case, the only real threshold is whatever the minimum Houston is willing to let him go for is before they say, "fug it, we'll wait until next offseason or until an injury happens." In this case, it's all about what Houston actually thinks they can get and what they are willing to accept.

Yeah and that carotid stun scenario that they were talking about. That is completely plausible.

That depends on the resources spent. Stafford's money owed is extremely cheap for a player of his caliber. So if you could get him for a 3rd round pick(just throwing out an example), I'd make that trade in a heartbeat.

It's only marginally more than he made in 2020($9.8 mil). I suppose they could just hold him hostage for that length of time but they would essentially be establishing a permanent place as the worst franchise in the NFL. I sincerely doubt you will see any sort of player that isn't just chasing an easy paycheck want anything to do with them. He isn't destitute and I highly doubt the franchise wants to continue to lose money in a pointless and vindictive pissing match. I also don't think that ruining the career of one of the leagues budding stars would go over well in the league offices. Like I said, Watson has the bulk of the leverage here. The Texans may not realize that because they are a terribly run organization but if he decides he isn't playing there anymore, there isn't a lot they can do about it.

Every guy on that board is going to command a big price. IMO, if you make a move to get a "damaged goods" candidate, it needs to be on a Jameis Winston/Cam Newton kind of one year deal. So, guys that might be worth a look under that cheap scenario: Jacoby Brissett - Honestly, not an upgrade over Teddy. I'd pass. Mitch Trubisky - Not a great scenario up in Chicago for QB's. Talented gunslinger with the classic boneheaded play syndrome. I'd be down to take a flier on him for a cheap deal. Ryan Fitzpatrick - Not really given a fair shake in Miami once the decision was made to start Tua. The classic boom-or-bust journeyman. The issue is that he might not come at a cheap price given he is 39 years old. Jameis Winston - Yet another maligned gunslinger. Very talented but can he run this kind of offense? I'd be willing to give him a 1 year deal....for the right price. Those are the mildly interesting options that I saw.

His contract is only for 2021 and 2022. I think the Stafford scenario makes the most sense if we decide to take a QB at #8. That's a much more valuable "bridge" QB than Teddy was, and for essentially similar money. The obvious downside is that we get pounded on dead cap(again) if we cut Teddy.

He would lose money but he also has the remainder of his career to recoup those losses. That isn't to discount how much he would lose(roughly $10.5 mil in salary plus whatever the fines would be). Consequently, the Texans stand to lose draft compensation, salary cap space(and rollover space), and essentially put their entire franchise on pause. I just believe if Watson ends up limiting the places he is willing to go, those teams(or even worse for the Texans THAT team) will know the competition is smaller and not get too wild. But, that's also assuming that one team may not sell the entire farm to get him. Tons and tons of "what ifs" for an entire scenario that is essentially a "what if."

That is the standoff portion. Watson can tank his value by saying, "I will only play for X team(or teams)." The Texans can say, "fug you, you'll sit for a season." In the end, it is really only the Texans that lose on that move though. I think they blink first. I still believe if a trade happens it will be for far less than the current speculation is. Precisely because of that no trade clause.

Remember that Watson can tank his trade value with that no trade clause. It isn't a "free market" trade scenario

About the same price as Teddy too.

The choked out explanation is completely ridiculous. Go try and choke someone out in .5-1 seconds.

He did have Antonio Gates and Keenan Allen. Certainly not the WR corps that Big Ben had but he has definitely had some talent around him. That is what always made San Diego such an interesting case, it wasn't for lack of talent the franchise consistently fails. It's because it's a poorly run organization.

Eh, trading him to move up in the draft I am not sure I would be willing to do. That's one of those you have to be REALLY sure that you are getting "The Guy." If you end up trading a top 2-3 RB in the NFL for a bust QB........that is a hard one to ever live down as a GM and/or GM/coach. I definitely wouldn't want to trade CMC away for nickels or a gamble but for an established elite QB, I wouldn't hesitate even for a fraction of a second.

I mean....fair point but there really aren't a lot of great cases of a QB "carrying" a team to the Super Bowl. The one that definitely sticks out would be 2015 Cam, right? That was largely the greatness of him that season that propelled us to those heights. It isn't like his supporting offensive cast was much.

I mean, Rivers had a lot of great talent in San Diego so I don't know that I would agree that his supporting cast was always inferior. That is why I referenced them squandering so many HOF careers. I fear we will see similar with Justin Herbert. I think Rivers and Big Ben are close, each with some positives and negatives to support their cases for being better.

They were breastfed.