SCO96
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Everything posted by SCO96
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Good point. I think we're ok at cornerback. We held our own against arguably the most explosive offense in the NFL with our best CB on the bench. We have several guys that can play SS as you pointed out. We need a Ball-Hawking guy to man the FS position. We know these guys don't grow on trees, but it would be nice to find a guy with great instincts that is good in pass coverage and could get us about 5 INTS every year.
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The information/formula in my post comes from a defunct football site website, Cold Hard Football Facts.com. It was hosted by Kerry Byrne back in the day. I think the website closed down around 2016-2017 so I'm unable to directly access information from their webpage. I had to use Chat GTP to search the internet for the information/formula. The data is solid. After the MNF game I'll post some information about these passing stats. I can guarantee you that nearly every team with a +10 to +20 PDR is in the run a playoff spot and those in with a negative PDR are in the bottom third of the NFL in winning percentage.
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Another major stat is defensive passer rating differential. This is calculated by the following formula. Passer Rating Differential = (Offensive Passer Rating) − (Opponent Passer Rating Allowed) 61.2 = (Bryce's rating 147.1) - (Stafford's rating 85.9) If a team has a +10 differential they have a 70-75% chance of winning A team with a +20 differential has 85-90% chance of winning A +25 to +30 differential has a 95% chance of winning. According to Chat GPT A passer rating differential of +25 or higher is one of the strongest predictors of victory in a single NFL game — more reliable than turnover differential, rushing yards, or total yards Bryce played well overall today, but a lion's share of the credit goes to the defense for their ability to force Stafford in several uncharacteristic errors to keep his QBR under 90 today. If the team is going to be successful going forward, Bryce is going to have to play like this from week to week or the team needs to bring another QB who is up to the task.
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I have strong reservations committing to Young as longer starter with a 2nd contract. If I were GM, I'd follow the above scenario and let the chips fall where they may. Who knows, a legitimate threat to his starting job could if ignite a fire in Bryce and make him a better player. He's never really had to fight to win the starting job.
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Normally I'd be inclined to agree with you, but not this time. That Saints loss was our most embarrassing defeat of the year. We got thumped by the Jags, Pats, and Bills this year...but all 3 of those squads are playoff caliber teams. We lost to a 1-8 Saints team at home against while they were starting a rookie QB. I have a feeling that lost still stings and I feel pretty confident we are going to beat the hell out of those guys when we see them again.
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His playing style today reminded my of Bob Sanders, the Colt safety from the Manning/Dungy era. Whenever he was healthy the Colts defense played at another level. The only SB those two won together was when Sanders was healthy at the end of the season. He was a hard-hitting playmaker that set the tone for the entire defense. After 2006, he seemed to always be banged up and couldn't finish the season. Colts were never as good defensively once he became injury plagued. If Ransom could play like Bob Sanders did in his prime, and stay healthy throughout his prime, his presence alone could make us a top 10 defense.
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This a perfect example of just how misleading statistics can be sometimes!
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Stafford cost the Rams the game today. All of 3 of his turnovers were back breakers for LA and they lost the game. On the other hand Bryce has a couple of nice TD passes and made several critical completions that extended some drives and ultimately iced the game with the last completion to Coker. He also didn't make any major mistakes or turnovers that really hurt the team. In that sense he outplayed Stafford. If you swapped their stat-lines the Rams win this game. That said, in no game situation would I ever take Young over Stafford. Watching Stafford zip those passes all over the field actually made envious during the game. I actually agreed with one of your posts under another thread. Bryce still hasn't proven he can effectively throw against a strong zone coverage. He seems to be most effective against one on one coverage...and even then its usually outside the numbers and not over the middle of the field. I have a hard time seeing him improving on this due to his height and subpar arm, but it would be nice if he could.
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To be fair, when Keyshawn was speaking he also said that the above scenario is most affective when the team is solid on both sides of the ball. He mentioned his 2002 Tampa team that won the SB with Brad Johnson as their QB but was known for their smothering defense with Brooks, Sapp, Rice, Lynch, and Barber. Still, you really can't argue with what Keyshawn said. If Bruce put the above stat-line up every week, had a run game that averaged over 4.0 per attempt and 120 yds per game, with this year's defense, NO TEAM IN THE NFC WOULD WANT TO PLAY US IN THE PLAYOFFS
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I wouldn't say that Dowdle can't be a number 1 back, but you're right about the hits he takes. Rico is fun to watch, but he RUNS HARD. The punishment he takes (and dishes out) takes it toll over the course of the season. He needs to have his carries monitored throughout a game/season. I think the same can be said for Chuba. Chuba didn't look that explosive earlier this year and we now know that he wasn't fully healthy. He looks healthy again its showing on the field. Dowdle looked like the best back in the NFL for several weeks. He's dropped off a bit and now he seems a little banged up. I think both guys will look good after our upcoming bye week. I think Canales used both backs well today. They combined for 35 carries and 141 yards on the ground and 4 catches for 62 yards and a TD.
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Check out the final stat line for Young C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT SACKS RTG 15/20 206 10.3 3 0 2-12 147.1 Stafford: C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT SACKS RTG 18/28 243 8.7 2 2 2-16 85.9 About a year or two ago I heard Keyshawn Johnson make a statement that I have never forgotten. I don't have the exact quote, but I'll paraphrase. You don't need your QB to throw for 300 yards every week. All you need is: 1) A guy who can drop back 20-25 times per game and not turn the ball over. 2) Pass for approximately 200-220 yards per game 3) Make about 2-3 explosive pass completions per game 4) Put over 21 points on the scoreboard for most weeks. Bryce did all of the above and we won. I'd like to add that he won the crucial Yards/attempt battle today as well. A passer who averages 7.0 yds/att is a solid player. Stafford score was 8.7, which is way above the normal. He only lost today because of the turnovers. Bryce averaged 10.3! That's an elite performance for 20 drop-backs.
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Official Week 13: Rams @ Panthers Gameday Thread
SCO96 replied to rodeo's topic in Carolina Panthers
This teams playoff fate is going to rest on Bryce's shoulders. When he plays well, we play well. We have beat 3 of the best offenses in the NFC (DAL, GB, and LA) this season. When he sucks, we suck...as evidence by our loss to the 1-8 Saints at home to a rookie quarterback. In typical Carolina fashion, I still think that loss is going to cost us a playoff spot this season. We're probably going to finish 1 game behind Tampa in the standings. -
Official Week 13: Rams @ Panthers Gameday Thread
SCO96 replied to rodeo's topic in Carolina Panthers
I just checked the box score after the TMAC TD Young: 14/19/ 196, 10.3 per attempt , 3 TDs, 0 INT, RTG 146.1 As I said earlier, when Bryce plays like this we usually win...or are completive in the loss. -
Official Week 13: Rams @ Panthers Gameday Thread
SCO96 replied to rodeo's topic in Carolina Panthers
We've been saying how bad the scouting department has been in Carolina for years. It's amazing how many players we've passed over and how many busts we drafted instead. -
Official Week 13: Rams @ Panthers Gameday Thread
SCO96 replied to rodeo's topic in Carolina Panthers
The holding penalty and that sack may end up costing us this game. -
Official Week 13: Rams @ Panthers Gameday Thread
SCO96 replied to rodeo's topic in Carolina Panthers
We have a very "inconsistent" QUARTERBACK. When Bryce gives us a competent performance on the field we usually win...or are at least completive in the loss. When he has one of those sub 150 passing days less than 6.0 per attempt we usually lose. Nuff said. -
Official Week 13: Rams @ Panthers Gameday Thread
SCO96 replied to rodeo's topic in Carolina Panthers
Our lack of pass rush is showing up big this game. I think our depleted defense is doing pretty good all things considered. We can't expect to easily find Hall of Fame talents like Kevin Greene or Julius Peppers in the draft. Those guys are SPECIAL. But, imagine if we had a Lamar Lathon, Charles Johnson, Greg Hardy, or Mike Rucker coming off of the edge. This would probably be a top 10 defense if all the starters are healthy. -
Under no circumstances should he play this week. I think we have a a bye after we get crushed by the Rams this Sunday. He needs 2 weeks minimum after an injury like that. As someone stated earlier, it might not even be a bad idea to shut him down for the season if he's having difficulties after the bye week.
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That depends on which Jameis shows up: The one who throws 30 TDs in a season, or the one who throws 30 INTs in a season. Oh wait, Jameis did accomplished both feats in 2019 . On a serious note, Jameis would be fun to watch in this offense. He'd put up some big numbers throwing to TMac, Legette, and Coker and our TE's. You just have to be prepared for him to break our hearts on a fairly frequent basis.
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This perfectly sums up our situation. Under Tepper's watch we went from from long-term MEDIOCRITY to long-term FUTILITY. Extending Bryce will only make extend the worst era in Panther history. He needs to let Canales and Morgan bring in a new starter NEXT SEASON.
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In a meeting with reporters in 2019 (about a year after he bought the team), Tepper said he “will not stand long-term mediocrity.” ESPN.com+2https://www.wbtv.com+2 He expressed frustration that the Panthers had never posted consecutive winning seasons and said he “despises mediocrity … especially when it never seems to end.” https://www.wbtv.com In a transcript, he emphasized that he wants to build a standard that will be “built and sustained … sustained excellence.” Carolina Panthers+1 After a particularly bad loss, he also said, “long-term mediocrity … would not be tolerated under his watch.” ------ If our owner doesn't see that Bryce's performance through his first 3 seasons is an example of "long-term mediocrity, then he really doesn't understand the meaning of the term. He'd be making a very unwise decision if he forces Morgan to pick up that 5th year option.
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I'm not sold on Bryce, but I have to give him his props for yesterdays gutty performance. As to why he plays well against the Falcons (at least on the road for the past 2 years), I wonder if it has something to do with the environment. The Falcons play indoors so he doesn't have to deal with any inclement weather which always benefits a QB with mediocre/subpar arm strength. When he played them in Charlotte earlier this year the highest temperature was 87F (average temp of 76F)
