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  1. I think Payton is still under contract with New Orleans and thus it would be tampering for the Panthers to tal to him directly. It is not tampering to talk to others with a close connection to someone under contract. Payton will want a big market job with a franchise QB. That is not Carolina.
  2. The Dallas Cowboys are being predicted to say goodbye to a major piece of the offense in a trade with the Carolina Panthers. Throughout the offseason, there were questions at the tight end position due to a few factors: veteran tight end Blake Jarwin was released, Dalton Schultz’s rookie contract had ran its course and he was in need of a new deal, and the Cowboys added Jake Ferguson in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL draft. https://heavy.com/sports/dallas-cowboys/trade-rumors-carolina-panthers-dalton-schultz/
  3. Indeed, time will tell. The truth will be revealed. I am optimistic though. That was certainly not the case before the draft.
  4. The truth is that you never really know how these players will play in the future. There are so many variables. However, you can analyze draft results by comparing draft choices to the perceived value that a player brings to the table. It is by no means an exact science. However, I came into this draft depressed and relatively disinterested. I now have a bit of hope and a renewed interest.
  5. This might not initially pass the smell test as there has been a lot of praise of the Ravens’ and Jets’ drafts, neither of which grabs the top spot here. But it does make sense. Those two teams do have two of the three highest totals in capital acquired from the draft, and the big names they’ve added will be exciting for fans to follow. But those players didn’t come for free. The Ravens had to trade away their top receiver for one of those picks, while the Jets had to deal Jamal Adams. The board doesn’t judge the efficacy of those trades and assumes every trade is fair value, though anybody is free to mentally adjust their perceptions of those trades into their calculation of the picks. Instead, it accounts for the fact that the Jets ended up with three first-round picks — and therefore three first-round values. The Jets acquired a good player in Ahmad Gardner, but that player was ranked lower than where the Jets picked, a loss in value (a relatively minor one, but it is worth noting). On top of that, grabbing the 37th-ranked player at 37 overall would normally be a wash. But as it was a running back going to a team not perceived to need one, it hurts the board’s opinion of the draft haul. It looks like a good draft, just not one of the best based on the assets with which they entered the draft. As a percentage of capital had in the draft, the Panthers come out on top having gained value on each of their five picks. While the bonus for quarterbacks and the boon of landing Ikem Ekwonu at sixth overall helps in a big way, they happened to secure players at needs that were important positions and were graded well by experts across the league. The Cardinals in second place weren’t quite as consistent; they lost a small amount of value with Trey McBride, Keaontay Ingram and Christian Matthew, but they more than gained it back with Cameron Thomas, Marquis Hayes and Myjai Sanders. Unusually, the Seahawks placed in the top five — they have typically picked against the board — and their class is highlighted by value picks in Tariq Woolen and Boye Mafe. The Chiefs did even better and only lost value on two of their 10 picks (one of which didn’t impact things much at all, as it was the third-to-last pick in the draft). Karlaftis, Darian Kinnard, Leo Chenal and Skyy Moore were well regarded by the board. At the bottom are the Patriots, Rams, Broncos, Buccaneers and Jaguars. The Patriots are simple to explain: They only gained value with two of their pics, Bailey Zappe and Andrew Stueber, and those were minor value gains at that. Instead, they followed big loss after big loss with the picks of Strange in the first round, Tyquan Thornton in the second, Marcus Jones in the third and Jack Jones in the fourth. The Rams actually had an advantage in this exercise, as it’s easier to gain value when picking later because teams can snap up falling players. But despite not having a pick until selection No. 104, they went well against the board. Logan Bruss was a reach of about 85 spots in the rankings, and Decobie Durant was a reach of about 100. That said, the model is overly harsh to players ranked outside the top 400, and it really shouldn’t be a big issue that a team invests seventh-round picks in players who would be ranked 412th. Really, all this means is that the Rams had only two opportunities to grab value by the board’s standards, and they didn’t take advantage of those opportunities. The Broncos did gain value with Nik Bonitto and Damarri Mathis but had one of the bigger losses of the night when they took Montrell Washington at 162. Picks like Luke Wattenburg at 171 and Eyioma Uwazurike at 116 hurt as well. The Buccaneers had one of the better picks on Day 3 with Zyon McCollum at 157, but their other picks were problems. Camarda was already discussed, but there was also Luke Goedeke, drafted 57th as the 100th-ranked player. Jacksonville’s biggest miss was already discussed, and with only four other picks on hand, it couldn’t do much to make up ground. The Jags didn’t make a single pick with positive value.
  6. Adding up the values of all 262 draft picks, adjusting for need and positional value and calculating it as a percentage return on investment gives us the following chart. 2022 Consensus Board Draft Return RANK ▲ TEAM CAPITAL VALUE NET ROI 1 Carolina Panthers 4001 5489.8 1488.8 137.20% 2 Arizona Cardinals 3194.5 3976.8 782.3 124.50% 3 Kansas City Chiefs 6457 7870.2 1413.3 121.90% 4 Seattle Seahawks 6600.2 7878.4 1278.2 119.40% 5 Baltimore Ravens 8064 9374.8 1310.8 116.30% 6 Atlanta Falcons 6408.5 7081.3 672.7 110.50% 7 Las Vegas Raiders 2374.8 2486.8 112 104.70% 8 New York Jets 8292.7 8671.1 378.4 104.60% 9 Green Bay Packers 6473.8 6714.3 240.5 103.70% 10 Tennessee Titans 5974 6180.5 206.6 103.50% 11 Cleveland Browns 4337.9 4370.5 32.6 100.80% 12 Dallas Cowboys 5177.5 5216 38.5 100.70% 13 Washington Commanders 5008.5 4924.6 -83.9 98.30% 14 Philadelphia Eagles 3963.4 3864 -99.4 97.50% 15 Detroit Lions 7064.7 6887 -177.7 97.50% 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 4217.7 4092.3 -125.4 97.00% 17 Chicago Bears 4919.4 4704.6 -214.8 95.60% 18 Miami Dolphins 1492.8 1402.9 -89.9 94.00% 19 Indianapolis Colts 4231.7 3932.9 -298.8 92.90% 20 Minnesota Vikings 6087.9 5622.7 -465.1 92.40% 21 New York Giants 9433.3 8638.5 -794.8 91.60% 22 New Orleans Saints 4901.8 4285.2 -616.6 87.40% 23 Houston Texans 8625.2 7404.8 -1220.4 85.90% 24 Buffalo Bills 4423 3768.3 -654.6 85.20% 25 Los Angeles Chargers 4014.9 3403.5 -611.4 84.80% 26 Cincinnati Bengals 3748.3 3126.6 -621.7 83.40% 27 San Francisco 49ers 3827.4 3121.1 -706.3 81.50% 28 Jacksonville Jaguars 6849.8 5452.1 -1397.7 79.60% 29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4631.5 3599 -1032.5 77.70% 30 Denver Broncos 4274.6 3135.1 -1139.4 73.30% 31 Los Angeles Rams 2357.6 1608.1 -749.5 68.20% 32 New England Patriots 5433.3 3402.2 -2031.1 62.60%
  7. New Orleans destroying New England in Foxboro should add a lot more luster to the New Orleans win. Win next week on the road in the face of adversity borne of injury and the record qualifiers should dissipate.
  8. I buy into the idea that winning next week gives proper meaning to this week's win. The Panthers have experienced their first real adversity of the season with two key players getting injured. Fortunately, they have extra time to prepare for Dallas and develop a plan to overcome this week's adversity. Also, I believe Dallas will come into next week's game after a short week. The Panthers are 3-0 and have not really put two solid scoring halves of football together in the same game. Perhaps that will come against Dallas.
  9. Beautifully done! Phil Snow has really surprised. Keep up the good work.
  10. Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers W Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons W Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills W W Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals W San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans W W Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts W Los Angeles Chargers @ Washington Football Team New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers W W Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs W Miami Dolphins W @ New England W Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints W Denver Broncos @ New York Giants Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams W Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders W
  11. That makes it five SEC players drafted by the Carolina Panthers.
  12. I love this pick at that spot. Two Gamecocks drafted by the Panthers.
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