mrcompletely11

edit from the over: 17 teams 35.5 for an average of still 2 wins

active, hell no. Random bets, sure maybe 2x a year

Again setting in a parking lot and trying to do the math, it looks like 15 teams went under for 33 total an average of 2.2. Pretty close to the over And I thought this entire discussion was how vegas viewed us and may have to happen in regards to the expectations for us to win the division or win the wild card. I am not married to these numbers so they could be wrong and I will double check once I get a bigger screen and a calculator. But it seems the average of how vegas is right/wrong is around 2 wins either direction. Still pretty damn good for 32 teams in my book.

doing the math in my head off my phone it looks like 15 teams went over 2.5 1.5 .5 2.5 1.5 2.5 2.5 3.5 KC .5 3,5 Vike 1.5 1.5 4.5 Eagles 3.5 I will double check the math when I get back but that appears they average for the 15 teams over is 2.3. So slightly less then half the league went over for an average of 2 extra wins. So I would say A)Vegas is pretty good at this and B) my overall general statement even if we beat the expectations and we fall to the average its going to be really hard to win the division or make the wild card. COuld it happen sure, do the stats and historical performances match up. Nope I hope I am wrong but I have watched this team far too long for them to surprise me in a positive way Edit to say: The 3 teams that went over 3 wins were 3 of the best teams in the 2022 regular season

That what I was asking you? What is a fair assessment to say Vegas is generally right about the win totals?

It depends on what you are calling right. Dead on the win totals? One off? Two off?

Right. Beating the expectations by 3+ is pretty rare. Even if we beat it by 2 (which it appears the more likely scenario) I still dont think 9 wins gets us either the wild card or division simply based on history. But I will be clear 9 wins in 2023 would be fuging awesome and would set us up perfectly for 24. That said I think we win 7 maybe 8 games at most.

I was using the 3 more wins then expected in regards to the playoffs or winning the division talk. My bad if I wasnt clear but I think to win the division or make the wild card we more then likely have to win double digit games. Sorry if that wasnt clear. But the overall premise was that more times then not vegas is pretty fuging close about how our season plays out and from the initial scan of other teams in other years its pretty close as well. Like I said once things slow down I will try and import expectations vs wins and see what the averages are and some of the variances to get a better understanding.

They have been pretty damn on the nose with us in recent years. We have exceeded expectations 2x in 6 years by 2 and .5 games. Vegas knows what they are doing. Could we make a crazy jump, sure anything is possible. Once I get to work I might start importing the past vegas win totals vs actual wins and I can run the numbers of how many teams exceeded their win totals and what the avg may look like so we can get a better idea. But thinking this team can win double digits may be a foolish proposition. Eyeballing this from last year going into week 18 I dont see a team that has beat the expectation by 3 https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/nfl-win-totals-tracking-entering-this-week-sgc/ from the 21-22 season just 2 teams beat expectations by 3. Bengals Cowboys. https://www.wynnbet.com/articles/win-total-results-for-all-32-nfl-teams-in-2021/ It can be done but the odds are long. As I have said many times now the 24 season is when I think we make a move. Bryce gets experience, we load up the defense and make the leap year vegas wins 17 9 11 18 9 7 19 8 5 20 5.5 5 21 5.5. 5 22 6.5 7 23 7.5

my man

again, if you disagree you can put your money down on it either way, Ive said since the draft this is a 7, 8 win team. Vegas agrees, if you are way more optimistic then you can win some money but they have been dead balls accurate in regards to us in the past 3 years or so. Vegas has a method and I wouldnt bet against it

vegas doesnt guess, its based on facts and metrics, they have been pretty spot on in regards to us for the past 3ish years. So I keep telling all the guys that think we are winning the south put your money where your mouth is, its right there, 7 wins

damn

I didnt think he was worth a first, but damn sure worth a 2nd and its fuging criminal we didnt take him in the fourth.

vegas has us at 7.5 wins. Thats facts

Its almost if that the plan is to build the team around bryce.....hmmmmmmm.........so you might just say we are in a rebuild mode. Interesting

The Colin Cowherd? Stop the presses

compare his stats to d brown and get back to me

::sigh:: I really dont give 2 shits about what you need figure it out yourself

dexter lawrence nods approvingly

san fran tampa dallas bills jets steelers

Its the nfl and injuries happen as we are already seeing. And if you are counting on a 34 year old part time pass rusher to be your 2nd best then that kindof proves my point.

I agree we should try and stash him but I honestly believe he would get scooped up rather quickly

Aging mlb, no linebacker depth to speak of, absolutely no corner depth and absolutely no pass rush depth. Couple all that with a thin injury prone wideout room and little to no oline depth and a rookie qb and my bro that is the epitome of a rebuild

Damn where was mr in on every deal? Id roll the dice on him for a 6th or 7th