Icege

DB was definitely rusty and wasn't attracting the double blocks that he had in the past. Seahawks fans were saying afterwards that the Panthers found out the hard way that BB3 doesn't play well against the run, but he posted a better run defense grade than pass defense. I'm hoping that with a familiar foe coming up in Arizona that BB3 can settle in more (especially with Turk out for the next few weeks).

How does spending rankings determine sole fault? Outside of the folks that want this to be exclusively Bryce Young's fault, most rational fans understand that the offense and defense combined for a stinker. Bryce didn't play well enough, Nijman didn't play well enough, Corbett didn't play well enough, Legette didn't play well enough, the TEs didn't play well enough, the entire defense minus the CBs didn't play well enough. The only players that played well enough were TMac, Jaycee, Mike Jackson, Hunt, DLew, and Chuba.

I wonder how much of that is a combination of swapping out over half of the starters from last season and one less week of preseason for teams to get on the same page. We usually see defenses ahead of offenses at the beginning of the season, so the defense starting slow is a concern. It was particularly frustrating seeing guys that have been in the system for a year or longer failing to execute. I like Nick Scott as a person and appreciate his ability to communicate the scheme to the others, but Lathan Ransom has so much more upside. Speaking of Ransom, I'm hoping between today and tomorrow to review all of the rookies on defense since they didn't have many snaps to begin with.

I haven't looked at any of the ILBs in this class. Any recs on who to keep an eye on?

There is over 10+ threads to bitch about the offense in. Please keep discussion in this thread on the defense.

Yea, 55%+ iirc I thought we would see more cover 4 and 6 looks like in his first season, but it was a lot of soft cover 3 again

Boo, the formatting is being a pain in the ass and won't let me move the third video listed under "Q1 12:03 - 3rd & 10 from JAX 41" to under "Q3 04:25 - 3rd & 10 from JAX 14"

With there already being quite literally 10+ threads about Bryce I figured there might be a couple of posters that would be interested in talking about another poor performer in Jacksonville: the defense. Morgan made revamping the DL his primary focus this offseason in order to try and fix the historically bad performance that was put on the field last season only for the Jaguars to run for 200yds. With that performance, Evero's defenses in Carolina have now allowed 200+ rushing yards 26 times in 35 games. Even if Etienne's 71yd scamper doesn't happen he would have still averaged 4.8yds a carry. So why is it all of the same, even with different bodies? I don't know yet. That's why we're doing this. Something that caught me off guard from Sunday's game was the Jags' success rate on 3rd down. I'm hopefully not the only one that felt like the Jags were converting on 3rd down at will, but after looking at the box score it appears that on 12 attempts they were only able to convert 5 times for a sub-50% conversion rate. How can that be? When Jacksonville needed a first down on third and long they seemed to get it. Wait a second... 3rd and long? Maybe that was why it felt the way that it did: the Jags were 3 for 6 on 3rd and 7+ to go. They were also 2 for 2 on 4th down. Those type of conversions are backbreakers for defenses, so let's take a look at those conversions to see if there's anything we can figure out. On one end, we have a situation where the defense is at an advantage and another where that revamped DL should be able to show it's value. Q1 13:47 - 4th & 1 from JAX 37 This play felt like a taste of things to come. From their own 37yd line the Jaguars lined up with 2TEs and both WRs to the boundary side. Carolina is in their 3-4 base with a single high safety and showing an over front. It's worth mentioning here that the Jaguars aren't just lined up E-T-G-C-G-T-E... they're lined up T-T-G-C-G-E-E. The Jaguars send Dyami Brown in motion and run the jet sweep to the field side with the two TEs to the right moving out to the right while the rest of the line crashes to the left towards the boundary (and away from where Dyami is running). PJ2 is left unblocked and gets mixed by the fake handoff to the RB. Jaycee and Jackson do their best on the left side vs. the tight ends blocking them while Trevin is in pursuit from behind. Wallace had no idea the jet sweep was happening until it had already happened. He was cheating up and then went left afterwards. Great playcall and design by Coen here. If not for Jaycee knocking Brenton Strange backwards and tripping up Dyami, this might have gone for a lot more. 1A.mp4 1B.mp4 Q1 12:03 - 3rd & 10 from JAX 41 Right after giving up a 4th & 1 the defense gives up another conversion, this time on 3rd & 10. The Jags start come out in the shotgun with the receivers set up in a 2x2 and the RB to TLaw's left. Dyami Brown motions across the formation towards the right side of the field so that the Jags have trips to that side. The Panthers are playing off coverage and are in an over front with two safeties split deep. The ball is snapped aaaaaand... it's cover 3 zone. Panthers are in a dime look with a 3rd safety and Moehrig starts to carry Travis Hunter but doesn't pass him off to Nick Scott. This opens up the spot Moehrig left for Brenton Strange to settle in to catch the ball underneath. Turk Wharton had jumped offsides to start this play as well. Somebody clearly messed up on this play and I think it's Moehrig because I don't think the playcall meant for him to man up on Travis Hunter. The more we do these over the season, the more answers I imagine we'll find as we see repeats. 2a.mp4 2b.mp4 3b.mp4 Q3 04:25 - 3rd & 10 from JAX 14 This and the following offensive drive for the Jaguars effectively killed any chance at trying to catch the Jaguars at 20. Backed up on their own 14yd line on 3rd and long, Jacksonville marches out their 11 personnel while the Panthers have their dime personnel with a third safety. They show an even front and man alignment but with off coverage. Surprisingly, rather than cover-3 we get a cover-6 call. Nick Scott backpedals all of the way from the 26 to the 40 to be the deep half defender as Mike Jackson passes Dyami Brown off to him from the 24 (where the first down marker is). Jackson passed him off because Brenton Strange was coming open underneath to the flat. As soon as TLaw sees the pass off he fires it over to Brown who makes the comfortable catch. Mike Jackson immediately tackles him as Nick Scott hustles over from 10yds away from the play. I think the clear issue here was Scott getting so damn deep. The LOS is the 14, first down at the 24, and he's all the way back at the 40? 3a.mp4 Q4 10:44 - 4th & 1 from CAR 34 The Jags line up with both tight ends inline to the boundary (left) side along with OL6. Nothing fancy here, just a HB dive. BB3 showed good get off here but the center for JAX did a good job bumping him and climbing to the second level to seal off Moehrig. DB got pushed back a little bit by the LT after bumping into BB3 and the RG did his job in sealing ARob off enough. The Jags won in the trenches... not much else to say here. Moehrig could have started coming downhill a little sooner to try and shoot the gap, maybe? Other than that, ARob winning his match up could've prevented it? Regardless, this sucked because it gave the Jags another set of downs to run the clock down with... you know what? Moehrig should've shot that gap. It's 4th & 1 in the fourth quarter and there's enough time to get two or three possessions. He's opposite of the tight ends and Mike Jackson has 1-on-1 coverage on the outside. Moehrig has to go downhill here. 4a.mp4 4b.mp4 Q4 09:16 - 3rd & 8 from CAR 29 And just like the drive to start the game, the Jaguars end the 3rd quarter and start the 4th with a drive where they convert on 4th & 1 and then 3rd and long on the next set of downs with a long drive that ended in a field goal. Jags are in 11 personnel while the Panthers are in nickel with Scourton + Johnson as the EDGEs. Bunch to the right and who wants to guess the play call by Evero? If you guess cover 3, you win! Coen did, and the Jaguars were able to let Brenton Strange settle in right between Rozeboom + Moehrig for a 10yd gain on 3rd & 8 to keep the chains moving. 5a.mp4 5b.mp4 The conversion rate on 3rd & 7 - 10 in the NFL is 34.42%. Not only did the Jaguars convert half of their 3rd and longs, they also had two drives where they converted not only a 3rd and long a 4th down as well. Their first drive to start the game, a 13 play, 55yd drive that took 6:45 off of the clock (and netted them 3pts) and their third to last drive of the game. That later drive was a killer: 15 plays, 49yds, 8:07 possession time. Those two drives alone drained a total of 14:5, an entire quarter, off of the game clock. They only came out of both drives with field goals, but that's still just not going to be good enough results by the defense help this team win games. Evero's scheme works when the team is ahead and teams have to throw the ball more. In a dirty slugfest though? It's not holding up well at all. Combine that with the Panthers' offense starting slow yet again and this might not get better until the team starts playing more complimentary football. It's only week 1 though and there's a lot of football left to go in the season.

You know... I was going to try and focus an all-22 review thread on some of the "major" moments during the game on offense but seeing as how it feels like a lot of the more vocal fans would prefer reaffirming their feelings I'm wondering if focusing on the defense instead would provide better value.

Summary (continued) Continuing on the topic of, "who has developed under Evero?" DJ Johnson, developed or not developed? AC Carter just got here to coach the pass rushers, but DJ Johnson has been here for three years and looks about the same. Jammie Robinson, developed or not developed? Trevin Wallace was atrocious and is a work in progress at best Chau Smith-Wade? Mike Jackson can be argued that he's developed Jaycee Horn has always had the talent, he's just been injured So who exactly has been elevated? Evero is a smart coordinator that knows his system very well, but he hasn't done a good job of developing talent. Was good his first season but regressed mightily in year two. Looks like there's no changes in year three. They have a lot of respect for Evero but do not understand the logic in just staying with the same product. You have to hold players accountable and develop them. Trevin Wallace played 86% of snaps. CSW played 71%. Those are the only two guys with a season or less of experience that got 50%+ or more of the snaps. Scourton got 27%, Umanmielen 12%, Ransom played nine total snaps. Canales is pushing for young guys to get more time but... isn't he the head coach? Yea Evero owns the defense but you're the one being credited for wins and losses. Based on his messaging though it sounds like he's having general conversations about it without really pressing the pedal down yet. Dave is going to wear this loss and how he handles it for a long time. Credit to Canales, they have played most of the rookies on offense. Even Mitchell Evans got reps. If you're playing nothing but vets and they're not getting it done, then what benefit are you getting with the young guys not getting reps? Special teams was one of the biggest concerns because of the lack of talent and a "special teams star" but they had a good day on Sunday all things considered. Kicker was good, kick offs were tactical, and they returned relatively well. Had a punt land on the 2 initially before being downed within the 10. Good opportunity for the pass rush to get right against Arizona after logging no pressures against Jacksonville. MHJ had a good week 1, but Jaycee and Mike Jackson are also playing well in scheme and are bigger CBs McBride might have a day against Wallace/Rozeboom/Moehrig Gotta look out for Budda Baker at safety. Very worried what a mobile QB is going to be able to do to this defense that struggles against the run already. Do they just have Wallace spy Kyler all day so that he doesn't get eaten up by play action? Even if Kyler isn't a top-12 QB, if a team isn't disciplined and gets out of their run lanes/fits then he is going to eat them alive. More of highlighting how big of a problem McBride can be. Jaycee Horn has proven one of the best CBs in the league and reminded us with the insane INT vs. JAX. WRs should be covered. Bryce had success against the Arizona defense last season. That combined with TMac's return to the state (though Tucson is about 90-120min from Phoenix). Could be a close game but if they don't play run defense or cover tight ends well it'll be another game where we look back and go, "Man... what can they do on defense?" The spotlights this season are on Canales, Evero, and Young. Getting a win in Arizona is a good way to shut us up until week 3, but for now it's not unreasonable to lean towards the Cardinals winning this. Alex thinks that Dave has a better day as a play-caller and that the turnovers get rectified. Points at the ugly turnover vs. Dallas and how Bryce bounced back from that to finish the season. Thinks that the Panthers bounce back and win 28-20. Through these first four games of the season, the team really needs to get two wins at a minimum not just for a chance at a winning season but also to be competitive. Fans also need something to look forward to for the home opener in week three. One of the few things to look forward to is TMac looking like a true WR1. This is also just one game. They're harping on the defense because it's been the same for the last three years. Also think it's fair to criticize Canales on playcalling and operation which were both erratic. Bryce Young, despite being physically fine as a passer, everything else was poor but there's also nowhere to go but up. That's what the veterans are clinging to and what the rest of the team needs to cling to. They're not going to get the benefit of the doubt nor should they. Canales + Young need to prove that the last 8 weeks of last season weren't a mirage and Evero just has to stop the run at this point. How they respond in week two will matter tremendously. Done!

Summary Week 1 looked a lot like the last couple of years and that's not good. A whole lot of "blah" all around. Losing Turk might be big. Him not being on the DL was not the reason for JAX's run game success on Sunday, but proved to be a better run stopper than anticipated. Valued part of the overhauled DL and it's never good to be immediately out after going down. Hopefully isn't as bad as anticipated but definitely severe enough for him to be out 4 - 6 weeks. Kaye thinks that Bryce got off to a really good start and that his weapons, sans TMac, let him down regularly though Bryce had his own blunders as well. Also felt that he was much worse after the weather delay. OL wasn't particularly good either. Guys were getting out of the huddle late and snapping the ball with very little time remaining. Extended drives that shouldn't have been that long (goes into detail later about this). Bryce is fine but does have to be better and this did look more like a regressive moment rather than progressive. Might have overvalued the finish to the season due to not having much to play for other than be spoilers. PFF offensive and passing grades were discussed. ADOT: 8.8yds - Not great, but not dump it off Bryce that we saw in 2024 ACP - 70%. (ngl, as much as people complain about BTTs being a made up stat it's very difficult for me to take the adjusted completion percentage stat seriously). 12 pressures - Not a way to operate as a QB. Only took 1 sack officially but this means he has to run around to try and get the ball out on time. 8/15 on 3rd down, over 50% is healthy for an offense All of that said, there was still 3 turnovers and operational issues on the offense (getting out of the huddle late, getting the snap off late, snap issues, etc). Bryce as a passer on Sunday was okay, but as a QB he was not good. Had multiple drives ~5min each when trailing by a score or two. Third drive of the game that took place in Q2 lasted 4:53 the team gained 39yds and got two first downs before punting. Took off roughly 1/3rd of the quarter, effectively running the clock out on themselves. Second one took 5:15 and that led to 55yds net (29yds in actual scrimmage, 26yds from penalties) and was the one that ended at 4th & 1 on the JAX 5. They had another drive that 4:10 where they gained 10yds net and got one first down. How can they operate eating away into their own opportunities? Gave 3 possessions to the opposing team and spent what was basically an entire quarter just burning clock. Poor clock management. What happened on Sunday cannot happen again in Arizona. Game should be close and they cannot afford to squander opportunities especially with a defense that gives up the rushing yardage that they do. TMac looked really good and showed a lot of flash. XL... this is back-to-back really good summers but man you have to have some situational awareness. His rookie season was greatly underrated considering what he did in the first half of it. Bryce had a couple of throws that weren't turnovers that he'd want back ie: slot fade to Renfrow, 4th & 1 ball that he just threw up. Physically he was very effective as a passer, but from the mental/decision making side he was not as good. 4th & 1 from the 5 you need to get, give it to Chuba. Yea they stopped it twice before but if Chuba is the guy that is going to make the offense run you've got to go to him. Neither Mike nor Alex would've gone with an empty set in that situation. Passing game was just not working: guys were dropping passes, mis-running routes, not paying attention properly (like not turning their heads). Wouldn't put that on Bryce given how him and the offense were ineffective for the first three quarters. It was the right call to go for it on 4th & 1. Pivoting to the defense, the run defense is still bad when looking at the numbers. During just the Dave Canales era, the Panthers' defense has allowed 200+ rushing yards nine times (including in seven consecutive games). Even in wins they are getting the ball ran on them heavily. In 35 games as the Panthers DC, Evero's defense has given up 200+ rushing yards 26 times. Only nine games have been under that amount. This scheme does a good job with coverage, especially on the outside, but it's been three years of allowed rushing success. It'd be one thing if they were sacrificing run defense for a pass rush, but not having any pressure in this game while also giving up 200+ yards is very frustrating. Isn't because of being a 3-4 defense, otherwise other 3-4 defenses would have the same issues. Young guys on the defensive side of the ball got very limited opportunities vs. veterans even if the veterans were failing. Evero's history does not play into playing young guys early. DJ Wonnum isn't exactly a Pro Bowl pass rusher that can't leave the field, neither is Pat Jones II, and Nick Scott certainly isn't. If those guys aren't ready, what on the field showed you that the guys that are playing are ready? Moehrig had a rough day in pass coverage. Coen had the TEs targeted often against him. Jaycee Horn + Mike Jackson have been terrific and the scheme benefits them, and while Nick Scott wasn't terrible he's still a replacement level player. A 30yr old safety with limited upside playing on the backend over Lathan Ransom who had a great summer or Demani Richardson who had a great season last year is being antithetical to what Canales says about playing and teaching none guys. Canales said he was going to push for it and people are asking why he doesn't just big boy Evero, but Evero was retained and is the guy for the defense. Scourton and Umanmielen have a lot of potential. Last season's team had no talent on the defense and no depth, but now that they've got these young guys he's not playing them. Hard to be championed as an awesome head coaching candidate if he won't play the kids. "Who have they developed on defense over the last three years?" Yeesh... Mike's got a point. Alex responds that Demani is a guy, but he didn't get to play much at all last week. I'm a little over halfway through but gotta pick up dinner for the family. Will try to finish up tonight or tomorrow morning.

I've watched everybody that says TLaw outplay Bryce also completely ignore Nijman giving up immediate pressures and mistakes by other players on the offense. I have no attachment to Bryce. My attachment is to facts, and the facts are that he dealt with more than TLaw did. As a fellow Clemson fan, I've got a much softer spot in my heart for TLaw and the NCG he won his freshman year than I do Bryce and his rough two seasons to start his career in Carolina. Have you gone back and watched the all-22 with the intent to figure out what was happening rather than sticking with your initial assessment? Give it a shot. It's much more rewarding than making up conspiracies to continue an agenda.

We're all aware of the frustrating Week 1 for Carolina, but there's reasons to see Arizona as a possible get-right game. While this will be Zona's home opener (requiring the team to travel out west), they were barely able to hold on to a lead against the hapless Saints who got a chance to tie the game up with 2min left that ended at the ARI 18. Kyler Murray was 21/29 with 2 passing TDs but for only 163yds (5.6yd AVG) and a QBR of 50.9 (RTG 108.8). He was also sacked five times for 33yds. Meanwhile, Spencer Rattler went 27/46 and was sacked just once for 6yds. Kyler also carried the ball seven times for 38yds. James Conner struggled to get going (12 carries, 39yds) but Trey Benson had a good day thanks to a 52yd scamper (8 carries, 69yds). Arizona has weapons in MHJ and McBride, but the CBs have been playing well enough for McBride to be the true focus of the defense. MHJ had a good game though against the Saints, so hopefully Jaycee + Mike Jackson can disrupt that connection. The Cardinals also aren't a disciplined team... with an opportunity to put the Saints away they gave up a TFL and a holding penalty before having the field goal attempt blocked. Their OL suuuuucks at run blocking and got better pass blocking from their TEs in week 1 than they did from any OL except for Paris Johnson Jr. Isaiah Adams and Hjalte Froholdt especially had issues as did Jonah Williams. If the Panthers' revamped DL can't get pressure against them it might be worth giving the alarm a pull.

I originally thought no in the moment, but after going back and watching the film I can comfortably say yes. TLaw did not deal with nearly the adversity Bryce did. For example, Josh Hines-Allen tallied eight pressures against the Panthers. The entire Panthers' pass rush, on the other hand, had a grand total of six pressures from the group. They got outproduced by two by a single player on the opposing team that was rushing against a back-up swing tackle. Even the craziest Bryce haters can admit that that would cause problems even for prime Cam Newton. I can also admit though that TLaw did not make nearly the same type of mistakes that Bryce did, but that was because of the near lack of adversity faced. Where is the top-10 performance post? I've checked four threads so far and nothing... and why in the world did you take it at face value without doing your due diligence?

It's strange that folks are still caught up on BTTs when the methodology has been shared and we have the game film to back it. This isn't to say PFF is without fault. Their are definitely instances where a grade is questionable, but I've found that more often than not that the film backs the grade. I'm hoping to get through the all-22 for the defense today so I can see what they saw that I didn't in regards to Moehrig. I'm still in denial over his grade, but I've seen a couple of clips as well where he was out of position (and another where a Jags player put him on his ass with a chip).

No they didn't. Bryce's Week 1 QB grades and where they rank against other QBs for week 1: Offense: 71.1 (19th) Passing: 71.8 (14th) Rushing: 56.2 (30th) Fumble: 29.1 (30th) Again... Where in the world are you getting that PFF had Bryce ranked as a top-10 performance last Sunday? You're out here beating the "PFF is fraudulent" drum while doing nothing but sharing fraudulent info yourself.

What other football games did you watch during Week 1? Also, are you saying top-10 overall or for a certain grade? Because... well... they didn't. Offense: 71.1 (19th) Passing: 71.8 (14th) Rushing: 56.2 (30th) Fumble: 29.1 (30th) So what exactly are you talking about? Where does it say he had a top-10 performance last Sunday at QB?

15min just to wait for the usual "BTT is a fake stat" nonsense I can get in any Huddle thread? k

https://www.panthers.com/news/rapid-reactions-panthers-fall-to-jaguars-in-opener Do you have any direct evidence that PFF is cooking up their grades to uplift players that the entire company wants to succeed as you've claimed?

PFR is a solid source but they take awhile to get completely updated as they're just an 11 - 50 employee company based out of Philly vs. PFF who has 201 - 500 employees and NFL contracts. PFR tries to get advanced stats up by Tuesdays @ 6pm while PFF gets them out by noon the following day of the game. Both tend to be finalized by Thursday/Friday, but I've seen PFR do a lot more adjusting up until Friday when I was using them most often before snagging a deal on a PFF membership. Hell, I still use both. Sports Reference LLC by far has the best advanced stats keeping for college that are publicly available.

DCs have got a couple of years of Canales' play-calling now to see what he's doing the same between TB & CAR. Most fans without an anti-player agenda understood coming in that this was going to be a season about developing the young guys (something most fans have been clamoring for since the soft reboots started taking place), but the coaches are in the same boat imo. Not only does Evero need to show that last season was an aberration, Canales needs to show that he has an offensive mind that can compete with some of these great defensive coordinators around the league. I think one of the adjustments for that particular play is going to be having Tremayne (or whoever the WR ends up being) create a contact with the SS before his break to the corner if the CB has outside leverage. I recall seeing the same (or at least a very similar) play drawn up during preseason where XL was breaking open to the corner after getting to the CBs outside shoulder but the ball went elsewhere due to pressure. Shoot... I think this might be the season that I finally challenge myself to try and figure out which plays/concepts we see most often and when. The last decade of reviewing all-22s after frustrating L's has helped me learn so much more about the game.

NFL does not officially track drops on their sites. They get that data from third-parties like PFF and ESPN.

https://pantherswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/panthers/2025/09/08/panthers-pff-grades-jaguars-week-1/86041090007/ Sanders and Dowdle both credited with drops.

Yes, it was a Cover 1 Robber concept. However, by design it's abundantly clear that the Jags had this play call from the Panthers already downloaded. Rather than rotating the safeties, the Jags have Murray tracking XL from the strong safety spot on the opposite side of the field. Oluokun is the robber while Jarrian Jones follows Chuba instead of XL. Endzone angle shows that Brycen Tremayne had Eric Murray covered up while running his route. The below screenshot show how Murray is getting depth while watching XL make his break. After identifying that XL is coming on the crosser rather than flying down the field, Murray begins driving on him. Notice how Tremayne is still overlapping him here from the QB's angle. Arm is in motion. Murray is driving while Oluokun is positioned both to undercut as well as lay the wood should Bryce scramble. I know some folks think that Bryce should've tucked and ran here, but he's got to get to the 26yd line to convert from the 19 while Oluokun is hovering at the 30. MLB is getting there all day before the QB, and for all of the pearl clutching over him being too small to play QB in the NFL idk why folks would insist he run into that ballistic missile. 1INTa.mp4 This was excellent scouting, design, and execution by the Jaguars. I expect a lot of teams to combat the XL crossers in a similar fashion. How Canales & Young adjust to that will be vital to the success of the offense as that's one of the team's go-to chunk plays. 1INTb.mp4

So you think that the play is solely Bryce's fault and that all 31 other QBs turn that play into a passing TD in spite of an incorrect route from WR1, immediate blindside pressure, a lazy route on the opposite side, and WR2 not on the same page as the QB? That's a lot of oversimplification just to be able to blame one player.