tukafan21

If you had asked me 20 minutes ago, I'd say there was a 100% chance he gets in next year if he didn't this year. But I'm not so sure now, as there are at least 2 guaranteed 1st ballot guys next year in Brees and Fitzgerald, which only leaves 3 more spots open and still a big backlog of guys who clearly should be getting in. If Kuechly's short career kept him from being a 1st ballot in a 3 man class, I'm not so sure he's a sure thing next year now.

Actually they picked zero, as Sharpe wasn't a modern candidate but on the senior candidate list

Uh.... what now?!?! I can't remember ever not seeing 5 modern era selections, with such a back log of worthy candidates, why did they only put 3 guys in this year? Kuechly is a 1st ballot guy who I could see not giving 1st ballot due to the shorter career, but not if they only selected 3 modern era players, I could have understood him getting bumped into next year, but this is baffling for him to get bumped with a not full class. Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt are a clear HOFers, how is neither getting in with 2 open spots? That also seems like it's a bad sign for Smitty's chances of ever getting in, if they leave 2 spots open and don't put either of those guys in either, I'm not sure he'll be able to get across the line when more HOF worthy WRs start becoming eligible each year moving forward.

I get so frustrated when anyone brings up the combine and factoring it into their draft thoughts, I genuinely think it's pointless, and if anything, hurts more than it helps. I couldn't give a damn how fast you are running in a straight line in your underwear, I don't care what you weigh or bench press, I don't care how high you can jump two footed from a non moving position and slap some sticks. None of those things directly translate to the field, none of them are even the same once you put pads on. It would be like testing NHL players slap shots while wearing shoes and standing on a hardwood floor instead of skates and on ice (bad example, but I think the combine is so flawed that it's hard to come up with good metaphors). Players can "fudge" their combine results by spending the 3 months leading into the combine solely focusing on specific combine testing. Whether it's someone like Bryce last year, who clearly put on a bunch of bad temporary weight so they could alleviate a particular concern of teams (and then doesn't do physical tests because they know they'll struggle due to the weight). Or the guy who spends hours every day perfecting their getting out of the blocks technique to improve their 40 time to change teams opinions of them as there is nothing about it that then translates to the actual game. Sure, it can show their work ethic, but in the end, it still doesn't translate to an NFL game. And if they don't spend the time on that because they're too busy working on their actual craft of being a WR, then it doesn't tell you they have a bad work ethic when their time struggles either. If you have 3 years of video evidence of a player doing something, why would them running a 4.9 or a 5.3 40 time change what you think of that player, when in the end, all that could come down to was how good that player was at firing out of the blocks and getting up to speed from a position no football player lines up in? If you have years of tape of an OL throwing players around, but they struggle to put up great numbers in a traditional bench press, why are you then going to down grade them when there is no time in a football game that you are lying down on your back and seeing how much dead weight you can push straight up over and over again. Decades ago, before every college game had a stupid amount of cameras so you can see every rep of every player from multiple angles, I can see how it would have been beneficial. But not anymore, I think too many teams are putting too much weight into the combine and it shows when all they do is pick high RAS guys who don't pan out (hello Carolina Panthers). This whole argument has nothing to do with my guy, but I have seen so many people say they need to see T-Mac's 40 time to know if they'd like him at 8 or not. To be that's such a baffling thing, you've seen his tape, you either like him or you don't, him running 0.3 of a second faster or slower for something that is only about 5 seconds, from a non football starting position, shouldn't change your feelings towards him one way or the other.

Tiring because I keep proving your talking points wrong with stats, actual data, and what the "experts" said about both players at the same point in their football careers? You're dying on the hill of "Evans prime was as a true elite player" which just by itself, woefully incorrect, T-Mac comparisons aside. I'm not going to go through every player's seasons since Evans came into the league, but I'd be willing to bet money that Evans' best statistical season wouldn't crack the Top 15, maybe not even the Top 20, of individual WR seasons in that same time frame. His BEST season was 96 rec, 1,321 yds, 12 TDs... which likely would have only been tied for the 3rd best WR season this year alone with Amon-Ra's 115, 1,263, 12 stat line and behind Chase/Jefferson's 127/103, 1,708/1,533, 17/10 lines. You're also basically arguing against every player because every player COULD turn out to be a bust, but there is nothing in T-Mac's film or draft profile that suggests he is going to be a bust in general, but even more so when you directly compare him to Evans as a NFL draft prospect as the only knocks you could put on T-Mac is the exact same negatives Evans had. You keep leaning back on what he's done in the NFL, which is just asinine to use when comparing players as prospects. It would be like saying Josh Rosen wasn't a better prospect coming out of college than Tom Brady. If you disregard what either did in the NFL, there isn't a single scout or analyst that ever would say Brady was a better prospect. And yes, I realize the extreme of that example, but the concept is the same, you can't look at a single thing Evans has done in his NFL career if you're trying to just compare them as prospects coming out of college.

Yes, Evans is bigger and stronger, but T-Mac has better hands and more shiftiness (can't think of the proper term there, but you know what I mean). Cool, Evans had a huge game against a #1 ranked team, that doesn't mean he did better against better competition (it doesn't mean he didn't either, but one game doesn't make a career or prospect). Again, T-Mac had solidly better stats in college than Evans had (and that's before even mentioning that Evans had a literal Heisman winner as his QB), so pulling out a single game doesn't mean much (and I'd say the same thing if it was reversed, I don't put much stock into a single game for anyone). Also, you say you're giving the speed a push because we haven't seen T-Mac's combine time yet. So how about this from an article from before this season that said T-Mac's top game speed during his first 2 years in school topped out at 21.8 MPH. Which btw, would have come in at tied for the 7th fastest player speed in the NFL this past season. And for comparisons sake, from a few initial searches, it looks like Evans' top game speed in his career was 20.6 MPH. It's like I've said too many times to count. No, T-Mac doesn't have elite short distance speed, he's 6'5", it would be crazy if he did. But once he gets into his strides, he's shockingly fast for a player of his size and routinely runs away from defenders after the catch (he was 5th in the Big 12 in YAC this year). It's right there in his tape if you spend the time to watch all of it and not just his contested catch highlights.

So you're saying you'll base your opinion of his NFL prospects on his timings at the combine more than the 3 years of tape on him? I honestly couldn't care less about what he does at the combine, and I say that for EVERY player at EVERY position. The combine is the most antiquated and useless tool for evaluating prospects these days. More players blow up at the combine because they're physical freaks, but end up busting because it doesn't translate to the field. Hell, how many players have we taken over the years because of their RAS score from the combine, only for them to end up as just awful actual football players? To me, the combine is good for two things and only two things. Directly comparing QB pure arm talent since it's the only time everything is equal for them. Where they're throwing the same passes, to the same WR's they don't know, and doing it right after each other so it makes it easy to compare their arm ability. And EVERYTHING that happens off the field that us fans don't even get to see, as all the interviews teams have with players can really tell them a lot about who they are as people, and what their mental knowledge of the game is as the teams go through mock film sessions with the players. And I'm not even going to get into the Hunter thing, as most analysts don't rate him over T-Mac if purely going on him as a WR and disregarding him as a defensive player. Plus, he's going to end up as a DB in the end anyways, it's his better side of the ball and he is very slender, I don't think he'll last long at the next level as a WR, he's already taken enough hits to be a 3 year NFL vet, before he even shows up to the draft.

You literally haven't said one thing yet to explain your views on Evans being a better prospect. T-Mac had better stats and has less negatives in his draft profiles when comparing the two, but you still keep saying that. If anything, they both had the same speed/separation question marks, but T-Mac is universally lauded for having unreal hands while that was a question mark for Evans coming out. So, please explain then what makes T-Mac a lesser prospect than Evans and you can't say a single thing about Evans long term health to allow him to compile a HOF resume in the NFL as that's a ludicrous argument to use when comparing them as prospects, like you keep claiming Evans was the better prospect.

You know what... just did a little more research and just saw this breakdown of T-Mac's weaknesses, just thought it was fair to put both sides out there........ Monotone mover with pedestrian speed -- cannot separate vertically or pull away from the pack. Unsudden acceleration. Stiff hips. Will have to make a living in traffic at the next level -- will struggle to separate vs. quick-twitch NFL cornerbacks. Did not run a full route tree and could require patience learning the nuances of refined route running. Backyard element to his college success -- must become savvier instead of depending on superior size and improvisational production. Can be hotheaded and lose control of his emotions. Basketball was first love. Oh... shoot, you know what, I made a mistake, I accidentally copied and pasted another one of Evan's draft profiles coming out of school, my bad.

Yep, I've never hid the fact that I went to Arizona and love him because of that. But that doesn't alter my views on him as a player, I've watched every snap of his career, I know his game better than any other person on this site. Not to mention, not a single person here can say I am just a homer, look at the negative things I've said about the Panthers this year. Hell.... look back at the threads talking about T-Mac and I'm constantly criticizing Arizona's football team this year as well. I call it like I see it, and if I go a little over the top on defending T-Mac, it's because too many people on here come out with drastically insane takes that are clearly born out of looking at his height and/or a 2 minute highlight video that generally shows his crazy contested catches (because they genuinely are crazy and belong on his highlight reel), and not having actually watched enough of his real tape, not just the highlights.

Good lord, T-Mac not having the separation ability of these quick twitch 6' WRs doesn't mean he has separation issues. I also can't for the life of me understand why people are so focused on the 40 yard dash in today's day and age, it literally means absolutely nothing, it's a straight line run, with no defenders, no pads, and is significantly dependent on the player's ability to fire out of a track stance, something no player ever starts a play from and something the taller players tend to struggle with just due to physics. So, if T-Mac comes out and runs a 5.52, combined with his better college stats than Evans had, does that somehow completely change your opinion on him because he's now "faster" than Evans was coming out of school? For what it's worth, I just went and looked up a Walter Football's draft profile for Evans, and here were his negatives.... Quicker than fast Doesn't always get separation Drops some passes Could stand to improve his hands So, basically the same negatives people on here feel about T-Mac in regards to being quicker than fast and separation "issues" which again, I don't use that as a fault on these type of players as they bring other positives that the smaller players who excel in that area just can't provide. Except the difference is nobody out there has ever said T-Mac has to improve his hands, it's literally the opposite, his hands are lauded as next level. Now let's go look at T-Mac's negatives from the same website's draft profile...... Lacks elite speed That's it, literally that's their only listed negative for him (I'm not saying he doesn't have others, in fact I've noted others, but this is the same site and they don't seem to have the same concerns you have). I feel like you're knighting Evans based on his HOF statistical career and retroactively saying that meant he was a better prospect coming out of college than T-Mac, with no actual facts, data, or game tape to back up that claim.

Exactly I don't know why it's so hard to understand that Evans had an elite career, a HOF career, but he was never truly an elite player at any given time during his career. He had a couple years where he was right there on the boarder of great to elite, but even then, I can't not fall back on, two 2nd team all pro's and never been a 1st. This isn't the pro bowl voting where it's a joke, even if you disagree with who was left off an all pro team, it's hard to argue removing those who beat them out. If those voters never saw him as a Top 3 WR in any season and only twice saw him as a Top 6 WR, how are you going to say he was ever a real elite player?

Appreciate it And yea, I get people laugh at my long winded posts, but it's like you said, I lay out my full argument in them with details as to why. It's not my fault most people on a message board like to just say we should draft/sign/trade for X player and if you don't agree, you're dumb and I'm not going to explain why I think that way.

In a WR re-draft Wilson isn't getting drafted over any of these guys... Jefferson, Chase, Amon-Ra, AJ Brown, Puka, CeeDee, Nabers, Thomas Jr, McLaurin, McConkey, Harrison Jr Then there would be a legitimate debate between Wilson and all of these guys where some would go before him and some after, based on personal preference... London, Aiyuk, JSN, Flowers, Devonta Smith, Olave, Moore, Pittman, Collins, Waddle, Dell, Pickens, Odunze And that's not even considering guys who may be better players than Wilson still, but just wouldn't be drafted over him in a WR re-draft because of age/injury concerns like.... Tyreek, Diggs, Evans, Godwin, Adams, Ridley, Kupp Again, I have nothing against Wilson, I'd love to have him on our team, but in no world can you trade the #8 pick for him and give him a big extension when if the alternative would be taking T-Mac and having the player with the higher ceiling on a rookie contract.

I have nothing against Mike Evans, it's that he keeps saying it's ridiculous for me to think T-Mac will be a better player than Evans, based on Evans totality of his career statistical output. They're not the same thing, at all. Basically what he's arguing is that it would be insane for someone to say any RB coming into the league is going to be better than Frank Gore. There are going to be LOTS of RBs over the years who are better than Gore but will never make the HOF. Or how about comparing a QB to Rivers or Eli? There are going to be a lot of QBs that you'd predict will be better, and for a period of time will be, but they won't be able to do it long enough to have the same career as those guys. Longevity of great play does not equal an elite player, it equals an elite career. If you're building a team for one season, health aside and looking at peak performance, there are way too many WRs over the last decade that I'd take over Evans to consider him a true elite WR in my mind. For example, I looked it up, here is where he has finished every season ranked in Receptions and Yards 2014 - 36th in Rec and 19th in Yds 2015 - 30 and 11 2016 - 6 and 4 2017 - 23 and 15 2018 - 17 and 3 2019 - 36 and 13 2020 - 32 and 18 2021 - 28 and 22 2022 - 25 and 13 2023 - 24 and 9 2024 - 28 and 23 He's played 11 seasons, only twice finished higher than 23rd in receptions and 3 times in the Top 10 in yards, 5 of the 11 outside the Top 15. Outside of 2016 and 2018, he really wasn't ever an elite WR outside of being an elite red zone threat. Evans was a great WR who had an elite career, not an elite WR

Then in regards to your continued refusal to separate Evans' career numbers, which are more due to long term health than sustained elite play, from who he was as an actual player at any given moment.... As I said the other night, I'll give you Evans' elite TD production, but also as I said, that's where T-Mac would be most likely to replicate Evan's NFL game, considering how great of a redzone weapon he's going to be. Even if he doesn't become a huge yardage guy, he's going to score a poo ton of TD's with his size and hands. But you really need to stop talking about Evans' 12,000 career yards as some proof of him being an actual elite WR on the field of play and not when looking at an overall career statistical output. Evans' 3rd best yardage season out of 11 seasons was 1,255 in 17 games. His 3rd best reception season was 79 catches, he's never had a single 100 catch season (his best was 96). He was never a 1st team All Pro and was only a 2nd team AP twice, which means 9 of his 11 seasons, voters didn't ever have him as a Top 3 WR and was only even Top 6 twice. It's not a knock on Evans, he's a HOFer, but he will get into Canton because of his long term sustained great play, not because he was ever a true elite WR for more than maybe 1 or 2 season's of his entire career. Mike Evans is the Frank Gore of WRs As I said the other night, saying X player will be better than Y player, isn't saying X player will have a better career than Y player. The only thing you can predict with long term health and availability is in the negative, you can predict someone will struggle with it if they already have (which T-Mac hasn't). But trying to predict who will be able to play for 10+ years without ever getting hurt vs someone who is going to be truly elite for half the time but not the other due to injury, is a literal crap shoot that isn't predictable. Hence me saying T-Mac will be better than Evans is me saying in a vacuum he'll be a better player, but if he'll have a better career it will come down to how long he's able to sustain being a better player than Evans, which is unpredictable for any player at any position in any league. If you view Evans as being a legit true elite WR outside of maybe 2 seasons, then that's the hangup, and really, it's on you, because again, 2nd team all pro twice, never first, hard to argue against that even before you dig into the numbers themselves, which don't support your argument either. 5 of Evans' 11 seasons have been between 1,001 and 1,051 yards. If each of those 5 seasons ends up at 999 or less yards, there is a very different narrative on Evans, in that he was a true elite red zone weapon, but only a pretty good WR outside of that. The 11 years of 1k narrative is HUGE to what his legacy is, it's undeniable.

Just in terms of comparing them as prospects.... I'm not going to try and pretend I remember Evans' draft profile from a dozen years ago, so just looking at stats after you remove T-Mac's Freshman year, where he still had 700 yards and 8 TDs (and only because Evans redshirted and then only played 2 years in college). Evans - 151 catches for 2,499 yards, and 17 TDs T-Mac - 174 catches for 2,721 yards and 18 TDs So I'm not sure how you can say definitively Evans was a better prospect than T-Mac is, especially when Evans wasn't a speedster anyways (ran a 4.53), which is really the only knock people have on T-Mac, and then T-Mac had better stats across the board.

Throw every current WR in the league into a new draft of only WRs and I honestly don't think Wilson is getting taken in the Top 15, certainly not in the Top 10. If you want to argue that Wilson's floor is higher than T-Mac's because he's already proven to be a 1k yard WR in the league, I'll accept that on the basis of proven vs potential alone. But T-Mac's ceiling is 100% higher than Wilson's and it's not even close.

So, two issues with that, the first is that the 50/50 ball (in general) is probably not T-Mac's best asset (although it is his 3rd). And I say that "in general" because the deep ball is his best asset, which yes, part of which is the 50/50 aspect of the type of deep ball he specializes in. The bigger issue is this... who the F*** on our team the last 2 years is a player Bryce would ever trust to throw a 50/50 ball to?!?! That's not Thielen's game and it sure as hell isn't a pass Bryce is going to throw to XL, Coker, Johnson, or Chark. T-Mac has 2 things that could be argued as his best assets. His best being the deep ball and the other being his catch radius (with a close 3rd on contested catch ability). There are two types of deep ball specialists in today's game, the Tyreek type who can run past the defense and the QB throws it as far as possible for them to run under, and the Mike Evans type where the QB chucks it and it's up to the WR to out jump and high point the ball over the defender. T-Mac is the latter and Bryce doesn't have the arm to properly use the former. Hence why T-Mac's best ability, those deep jump balls, are PERFECT for Bryce, who can throw it 50-60 yards in a heave, but can't just out throw the defense for a speedster to run under it. His catch radius is also a PERFECT fit for Bryce, again, because he doesn't have a rifle for an arm, but he's great at placing the ball where he wants with touch (it's actually probably Bryce's best asset). Bryce throwing those high and outside throws towards the sideline paired with T-Mac's size, catch radius, and hands would be a lethal combination, particularly on 3rd down and in the Red Zone.

What's embarrassing is that you can't separate Evans' totality of his career statistics with any individual season(s). Evans is a HOFer because of his consistently great play, but he has maybe 2 actual elite seasons in his career. Also that you can't seem to separate using one aspect of a particular player's game and saying someone is the best prospect at doing that since then, despite not even claiming that he's better than Calvin at said aspect of his game. You hate when I say that about T-Mac having the best catch radius as a prospect since Calvin... so tell me this... what WR prospects have had a better catch radius than T-Mac since Calvin? You hate that I use Calvin's name, even though I've never once compared T-Mac to him on the whole and am likely correct that since Calvin came into the league, if only looking at catch radius (the only thing I've ever compared T-Mac and Calvin with), T-Mac would be the best since then.

Explain this part. Because I don't think you logically can, as I've pointed out numerous times, what T-Mac does best is actually a PERFECT pairing for Bryce. You go first as I'm very curious what you're going to say, I'll then counter.

My thoughts on T-Mac are completely irrelevant to the point I'm making at the moment. Yes, I think T-Mac will be a better prospect, some may not agree, but that's a different discussion. Right now it's pointing out that people here are WAY over valuing what Wilson is as a player and what his future potential is. He's very good, he's a #1 WR, but I don't think he ever has Top 10 potential in him. I'd be okay with trading the 8th pick for Wilson if T-Mac is off the board by then. But even saying that, as much as I'm anti taking a raw prospect edge rusher at 8, I'd rather do that than trade that pick for Wilson and then give him an extension. 3 years in the league, hasn't missed a game, but the 2nd most yards he has in a game in his career is 115 yards. In what world is that a Top 10 WR?!?!?!?!

How am I glossing over that? I'm not saying he's a bad player, I'm saying there are others better than him and he's not a Top 10 WR in this league now or even in the next handful of years. Look at the QB situation just this past year for rookies in Nabers and Thomas, neither was good and you could argue Nabers' was worse than Wilson's. If you want to just compare rookie seasons, I'd say even with a better QB, McConkey had a more impressive rookie season given it was a run first offense and he had better statistics despite missing a game. Thielen had 1,014 yards last year with maybe the worst QB play for any team in the league over the last decade. 1k yards doesn't mean the same thing that it used to with the 17 game schedule and pass happy offenses in today's game. And again, that glosses over my big issue with him, he's not a game breaker in the mold of a Jefferson, Chase, Nabers and he doesn't have the size to be a red zone monster either. So his upside is capped because of both of those things. He's very good, he's a #1 WR, no doubt about that. But he's not a Top 10 WR and I don't think he even has that potential in him when you look at the rest of the young WRs in the league right now, too many of them bring things to the game that he just hasn't shown the ability to do yet.

laugh at how long my posts are, but when people say "so and so player is going to be a Top X player" with such certainty and zero analysis to back it up, I'm going to take the time to do said analysis to show how incorrect they are. It's easy to have different opinions on prospects, it's easy to do it on current players too. But when people talk about a specific already in the league player as being this stud elite WR, and 5 minutes of research can show a dozen guys of similar age who have already been better than him and still have their prime years ahead of them and another handful (or two) with almost identical output so far, yea I'm going to lay that all out there, even if it's a lot of information to read through. Talk about Wilson being a #1, that's fair, but to talk about him as some legit elite Top 10 WR in this league is literal nonsense when you look at his output so far compared to other WRs.