BIGH2001

I don’t know if I trust anyone in charge to make the right decision on striking that balance. I don’t know what kind of business you own but if it is public facing at all you are still going to have a large subset of the population who will be scared of their own shadow even after we are officially told we can go back to “normal.” I think that the media coverage of it has been over the top and fear mongering. Again, I get that we had to be warned so some of it was necessary but people have been given no hope. Its a dangerous thing.

How long are you willing to do it?

There's not really been high transmission outside of NYC, Detroit and New Orleans. Either we didn't act too late or there's something else going on. I haven't really read about the hospitals being overwhelmed, most are operating under capacity right now and laying off workers. There are predictions out there (including the infamous IHME model) that assumed social distancing and they still went way overboard. They have since significantly revised their projections.

Yes, our economy is fuged. Do you have a job or a family?

That's a cute response but it doesn't address the issue. All of the things I've read suggest that the most effective strategy is suppression which is to stay under lockdown until a vaccine is developed. Because that's not possible, the next step is repeated mitigation which involves multiple lockdowns, on and off, until a vaccine is developed. We've extended the curve but at what cost? We are going to go right back to lockdown when it flares up again?

And you mean the growth curve reduced from the predictions that were wildly inaccurate to begin with. Remember the Imperial College model?

Helped what? Do we have immunity? A vaccine?

Yeah those contradictions going on all over the place are tough to reconcile for me. We are in a depression now either way. Might as well keep soldiering on down that track.

We were promised overwhelmed hospitals a month ago, told we were two weeks behind Italy and we were fuged, there was nothing we could do. April 3rd: Ohio prepares for coming surge https://www.wfmj.com/story/41962824/governor-dewine-says-state-is-preparing-for-surge-that-is-coming April 9th: Ohio has flattened the curve! No surge! https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/you-have-squashed-this-ohio-has-flattened-the-curve-but-were-not-out-of-the-woods-yet March 27th: New York Needs 40,000 ventilators https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/cuomo-refutes-trump-insists-ny-needs-up-to-40000-ventilators-i-operate-on-facts.html April 6th: Nevermind, we are good. https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/06/cuomo-ventilators-new-york-coronavirus/ March 19th: 25 Million Californians infected in the next 8 weeks! https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-coronavirus-numbers-newsom-trump-15144169.php April 6th: California sends 500 ventilators back because they don't need them https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/06/california-sends-500-ventilators-back-to-national-stockpile-1272393 April 14th: California looks to release restrictions, has 22,000 confirmed infections https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/california-gov-gavin-newsom-unveils-guide-to-lifting-coronavirus-restrictions.html I could go on and on but I'm calling bullshit on this whole thing. Social distancing hasn't been going THAT well.

More are going to die if we reopen or not. It happens every day. I know that we are paying special attention to this virus but do we worry about other causes of death in the same way? I mean we have been making this calculation for years. We let people drive cars even though there is a risk of being involved in a crash. We let people buy guns even though some of them could turn out to be school shooters. Why would we intentionally crash our country's economy over this? Not to mention that the doomsday scenarios haven't exactly played out to date. There are about 100 people who have died from this in North Carolina. That's .00001% of the population.

I can pull things out of my ass all day. If this were a board game that’s a great idea. Do “scientists” ever operate in the real world where people have bills and mortgage payments? I’d rather just take my chances with the virus.

Does that make you happy?

NYC is fuged

I hope so.

That’s a false dichotomy. I believe that by June 12th there will be different rules for how we deal with this threat. It’s reasonable to ask everyone to stay home for a month or 6 weeks. After we get more data and have ramped up the ability to treat the virus I don’t expect it will be reasonable to have everyone under orders to stay home in June.

That is a morale killer for sure. June 12th.

Maybe, in varying degrees. By the fall, I am hopeful that we will be better prepared to stem the outbreak with better testing, tracing and treatments. Fauci said as much on Sunday.

I may be exaggerating, however, the testing in North Carolina is limited to only a few groups of people right now (elderly, healthcare, and severe symptoms aka hospitalized). That means 1. not every symptomatic case is tested and 2. There are no doubt a good number of asymptomatic carriers in circulation as well.

More like 34,000. Those are confirmed (hospital or severe symptoms) cases

I know there's a substantial number of people rooting for the world to end, but there is no way Ferguson can now claim only 20,000 will die because of the measure that have been adopted in the UK. They have only had the measures in place for like two days. It's nothing more than a total walk back. His original report suggested the only way to contain the virus to such a low death level would be to undergo 18 months of pure suppression (i.e. lockdown).

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/forecast-of-british-coronavirus-deaths-revised-um-downward.php For those who relied on the Imperial College doomsday report. It seems the author has revised his predictions significantly.

But everyone knows that about us. China deliberately concealed a lot of information related to this outbreak and has never acknowledged that fact. So fug them.

China is so full of poo. Add a few zeros on the end of their case number.

Don’t think that will happen at least not entirely. The military will be visible during this, especially in larger cities and outbreak zones. I foresee their role being more assisting in keeping people safe (handing out food, etc). and less law enforcement.

What do you mean by martial law? Do you think the military is going to show up and start shooting people on site?