Week 9 WIN agains the Packers - Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

12 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

You always do great work with these, dude. Kudos again

Thanks @Mr. Scot and @heelinfine for the kind words.  I'm glad others enjoy these threads.  They've been a bit random the past few weeks, and I've been relying too much on Twitter and others' analysis.  I hope to add some more original tables and charts later in the week... 

[Datawire]

Good stuff for sure. Thanks.

[KB_fan]

One thing I still can't get used to this season is our points per game numbers.  They're the highest in team history, as this chart from Sporting Charts shows.  Our defense isn't being historically "stingy" but the point differential is very nice.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/teams/364/carolina-panthers/#Points%20per%20Game$SeasonMax=9999&SeasonMin=1990

 

[KB_fan]

If you're interested in stats & analysis, there's an excellent discussion going on about the fact that we're near the top of the league in scoring so far this year.

I've posted a number of comments there with some stats.  I'll cross post several of those comments here below, but the whole thread above is interesting for the context of the discussion.

[KB_fan]

I've been doing a little work on a kind of "mid-season review" looking at the "best & worst stats" so far.

I'm not done yet, but here are some of the categories related to offense & scoring where we are top 5 or bottom 5 in the league.   In many cases I've put the comparison stat from the 2014 season.

The "Best" list is a really amazing list.

Most of these data are taken from the Team Rankings site or Sporting Charts.

 

Offense – best

1^st – Rushing Offense (142.3 yds / g)        /  2014:  130.9 yds / g

1^st – Rushing Att / Game (33.6)                  / 2014:  30.2

1^st – Rushing 1^st downs/game  (8.1)          / 2014:  7.5

1^st – Rushing Play % (50.95%)                  / 2014:  45.22%

1^st – Rushing Big Plays (34)

1^st – Toxic Differential  (28)                          / 2014:  12

1^st – Net Turnover Points (46)                     / 2014:  9

2^nd – Yards per Point (12.6)                          / 2014:  16.4  [lower is better]

2^nd – Passing Yds / Completion ( 13.1)        / 2014:  10.7

3^rd – 4^th Down Conv. % (80%)                      / 2014:  53.85%

3^rd – Give Away Points (15)                          / 2014:  75

4^th – Points per Game (28.5)                        / 2014: 21.3

4^th – Avg Scoring Differential (+7.9)             / 2014: -2.1

4^th – Points per Play:  (.432)                         / 2014:  .318

4^th – Points per Play Diff. (0.149)

4^th – Defensive TDs per game  (.4)              / 2014:  .1

4^th – Turnover Differential (+6)                     / 2014:  +3

5^th – Offensive Points per Game (26.1)        / 2014: 20.1

5^th – Defensive Points per Game (2.6)         / 2014: 0.8

5^th – Take Away Points (61)                          / 2014:   84 

5^th – Yards per Play differential (.6)              / 2014:  -.2

5^th – Penalties (50)

 

Offense - Worst:

28^th – 3^rd down conversion % (33.98%)         / 2014:  42.29%

29^th – Passing yards % (60.36%)                  / 2014:   62.57%

31^st – Passing completions/game (16.5)        / 2014:  20.4

32^nd – Passing completion % (53.66%)         / 2014:  60.03%

32^nd – Passing play % (49.05%)                    / 2014   54.78%  (note this is not necessarily "bad" - it just shows that we're running the fewest passing plays as a % of overall plays)

[KB_fan]

I would say that one thing the defense is dong best is forcing turnovers and limiting points on our give aways.  That's probably what's making the difference in our point totals. 

We have forced 18 take aways (4th best in the league) and scored 61 points.  We've given up 12 giveaways (right around the middle of the league - tied with other teams), but have ONLY ALLOWED 15 points on those 12 giveaways.  THIS is where the defense is excelling, and the offense is doing a pretty good job of turning take aways into points.

We LEAD THE LEAGUE in Net Turnover Points with 46.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-takeaway-giveaway-statistics/2015/

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-net-turnover-points-statistics/2015/

[KB_fan]

I've put together a series of table to compare our takeaways & giveaways from 2013 - 2015.  You can see we're forcing more take aways per game, and scoring a marginally higher number of points per takeaway.

We're giving away the ball at a marginally higher level in 2015, but we've dramatically reduced the number of points we're allowing our opponents to score compared with 2014.  The result is we're netting an average of nearly 6 points per game due to points scored off of turnovers. 

[KB_fan]

Nice film analysis of Funchess' two big catches against the Packers, by Panthers Mike Craft:

http://www.panthers.com/media-vault/videos/Self-Scout-Funchess-Plays-Big/1326f0e1-36ed-4f94-89e8-889124cd0416

[KB_fan]

BBR has Snap Counts posted:

blackandbluereview.com/week-9-snap-counts-panthers-vs-packers/

Here are the notes:

—Ryan Kalil didn’t miss a snap just two weeks removed from a high ankle sprain.

—Jonathan Stewart has played at least 50 snaps in five of the Panthers’ eight games.

—Devin Funchess saw a slight uptick in playing time, going from 10 snaps in Week 8 to 18 against the Packers.

—Brenton Bersin has played six snaps with no targets since Jerricho Cotchery returned from a high-ankle sprain in Week 6.

—Daryl Williams is still waiting to make his NFL debut on offense.

 

—Kurt Coleman has played 610 of a possible 611 snaps this season.

—Roman Harper saw 100 percent of defensive snaps for the first time this year.

—Luke Kuechly sat out just one play despite tweaking his ankle twice.

—Ryan Delaire has made one tackle in 119 snaps since his five-tackle, two-sack debut at Tampa Bay.

—Shaq Thompson’s five snaps were his fewest since he played 17 in Week 1.

—A.J. Klein has seen just 18 snaps the past three weeks as the No. 3 linebacker.

[KB_fan]

In the "Carolina Panthers #4 Scoring Offense" thread, there's been a discussion about the fact that our offense is scoring so well even though Cam's completion % numbers are way down.  One commenter wondered about yards per completion.  Is Cam throwing deeper and is that the difference why we are scoring more even with fewer completed passes?  Yes, that is clearly part of the equation.  Here's the research I did and my response in that other thread:

***

Ok, following up on @Marguide's thoughts about yards per completion...  I spent a little time comparing passing stats from this season and last season.  In some cases too I could pull up stats from mid season last year.  (The Team Rankings site let's you search for a team's stats as of a specific date in a given season - very cool.)

My comments follow the table.

There is evident improvement in yards per completion, yards AT the catch (receivers running deeper routes), yards AFTER the catch.  Also our scoring efficiency is improved in both passing and overall.

Sacks are way down.  But drops are up.

And look at "passing big plays" (data from sporting charts).  We have almost as many passing plays of 25+ yards through 8 games of the season as we did for the entire year last year.   So, yes, we're throwing the ball deeper, and our receivers are getting more YAC.

Very very nice.

[KB_fan]

Yesterday or the day before, there was a thread talking about Graham Gano's performance.  Over there I posted Gano's current stats re: FG% PAT% and Touchback %.  Figured it would be worth pulling them in here too.  They're not specifically "week 9" stats, but season-to-date stats...

***

Gano's at 80%  (16/20) on FGs this season and 3 of his 4 missed attempts were in our 1st two games when there were several blocked kicks.  He'd been perfect on FGs ever since until last night.

Here are the FG stats for us and all our opponents so far this season:

(note: clicking on the picture will make it easier to read).

And as for PATs, Gano is 24 of 26 for a rate of 92%.  Our opponents are 13 of 16 for 81%.

 

Oh and Kickoffs for Touchbacks:

Gano led the league in 2014 with a 74% touchback %.  He's currently 13th in the league this season at 62%

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/kickoff-touchback-pct

So, no, his stats are not leading the league this season, but they're average to above average, and I'm fine with that now.  You take away those blocked FGs early in the season, and Gano would be 18 of 20 on his FGs (90%)

 

We're in the top 10 in average FGs made per game - an average of 2 made per game.  https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/field-goals-made-per-game

We're 25th in overall FG conversion %   https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/field-goal-conversion-pct

But, excluding blocks, Gano is 13th.  https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/field-goal-conversion-pct-net-of-blocks

[KB_fan]

David Newton has a mid-season review:

Here's a portion of it.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/186732/carolina-panthers-cam-newton-exceed-expectations

A look at the highs and lows the first half of the season for the Carolina Panthers (8-0) and what to expect in the second half:

Midseason MVP: This is a tough one. Quarterback Cam Newton gets credit for leading an offense with a rag-tag group of wide receivers. Kawann Short is playing like the best defensive tackle in the NFL. But I'll go with cornerback Josh Norman. His four interceptions, two returned for touchdowns, set the tone for the fast start. That teams are avoiding him now is taking away half the field and giving defensive coordinator Sean McDermott more options than ever.

Best moment: The come-from-behind win at Seattle to go to 5-0. Newton never has been better than in leading the Panthers to two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the 27-23 victory. His 26-yard touchdown pass to tight end Greg Olsen with 32 seconds left set off a celebration normally reserved for playoff games. This ended a four-game losing streak to the Seahawks and ended much of the talk that Carolina's record was the product of an easy schedule.

Worst moment: The awkward collision middle linebacker Luke Kuechly had with Jacksonville running back T.J. Yeldon in the Sept. 13 opener. Kuechly was placed in the concussion protocol and missed the next three games. He might have missed four had Carolina not had a bye during his recovery. It was a scary hit for the team's defensive leader and a reminder of why the league has a stricter protocol to protect the players.

One reason to be optimistic: Carolina's record over the last six games of the season since 2011 is 18-6. This team consistently has gotten better at the end of the season under coach Ron Rivera. Newton is a big reason. Only Tom Brady has more December wins than Newton's 14 since Newton came into the league in 2011. His quarterback rating and completion percentage consistently has gone up at the end of the season.

 

[KB_fan]

More about the Packers than the Panthers, but there's an interesting article at PFF documenting Aaron Rodgers recent passing struggles.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/11/10/pro-why-aaron-rodgers-will-overcome-back-to-back-losses/

Here's a snippet:
 

Quote

 

[Rodgers recent drop in passing grade] stems from a problem of his receivers not getting open and him not trusting his receivers in tight coverage to catch contested balls.

The interception in the Panthers’ game is an example of his hesitation to trust his receivers to get open. Randall Cobb ended up wide open on a well-designed play, but Rodgers never gave it a chance, looking away before the pick by Thomas Davis. Rodgers had the time in the pocket with good protection in the scheme of the play. While he was pressured, Rodgers allowed that pressure to happen because, even he admitted, something “scared” him.

 

 

Again later in the article, it talks about receivers getting open, and Rodgers needing to gain confidence in them in the wake of Jordy Nelson's absence.

Quote

If Rodgers can learn to trust in his WRs, and head coach Mike McCarthy schemes plays to break open his receivers, the Packers’ offense will start clicking again.

There's much in the article that sounds very familiar to us Panthers fans, but although Cam's passer rating is way lower than Rodgers', I would argue that Cam IS now really trusting our somewhat motley crew of WRs and they are doing a much better job of getting open, and it's beginning to be evident in our offensive success.  Long may it continue.

Anyway, mostly I linked this article since I find it interesting that the stat gurus at PFF would focus so much on something that can't really be QUANTIFIED:  the chemistry between a QB & WRs and that "trust" factor.  I think we miss that too often, and it's probably one of the big reasons we didn't go out and trade for another WR.  At this point, the chemistry Cam has built with our existing WRs should begin to really bear fruit.

[KB_fan]

I forgot to link this yesterday.  An article at 538 talking about possible statistical data to explain the Panthers' 8-0 success this season when no pre-season statistical modeling suggested anything close to this outcome.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-explains-the-carolina-panthers-rise

Improved pass rush is one factor they focus on.  Here are a few excerpts:

 

Quote

 

Only Carolina, who was essentially a .500 club over the preceding four years (and worse than that last year) seems to have taken the NFL completely by surprise. Based on our preseason Elo ratings — FiveThirtyEight’s favorite system for estimating an NFL team’s skill level at a given moment — there was a 1.8 percent probability that the Panthers would be 8-0 through Week 9. By contrast, New England had a 6.6 percent probability of being unbeaten at this stage.

The Panthers have improved their rating by 116 Elo points (the equivalent of 4.6 points of per-game scoring margin) since the start of the season, and, according to our simulations, they’re on track to win 4.6 more games than was projected before the year. That’s an unusually big jump. But the manner in which Carolina has improved is also unconventional. While the typical big first-half Elo gainer¹ does it with a significantly improved passing game, the Panthers’ aerial attack is virtually the same as it was last season — league average, basically, in the eyes of expected points added (EPA).²

 

 

 

Quote

 

Although quarterback Cam Newton gets the headlines for the Panthers’ offense, which has improved its overall EPA by about half a standard deviation since last year, almost all of the change is owed to a more efficient rushing game. (Newton himself is on pace for about the same production in the rushing game as last season.) Of all the teams who improved their Elo as much as the Panthers have, only about 14 percent did so with a passing attack that, like Carolina’s, didn’t improve relative to the league. Generally speaking, to win more games in the NFL, you need to throw the ball more effectively.

That is, unless you improve your pass defense — which is exactly what the Panthers have done this year. Using the EPA grades I introduced last week, which rate teams on a scale in which 100 is average and one standard deviation is 15 points, only four defenses have improved more against the pass than Carolina’s has this season:

 

	PASS DEFENSE
TEAM	2014	2015	Δ GRADE
Denver	111	138	+26
Washington	65	91	+26
N.Y. Jets	89	113	+24
Philadelphia	97	120	+23
Carolina	102	125	+23