Comparing Carolina & Seattle - Pre-game Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

I'm sure there will be tons of pre-game matchup and analysis articles & statistics comparing the Panthers & the Seahawks...

Here's a thread to post ineresting statistics, observations & analysis.   I'll try to do some original charts & analysis this week in addition to posting articles, tweets, etc. with interesting facts & stats.

[KB_fan]

First up, and what prompted me to start this thread, an interesting article comparing Cam & Russ:

http://espn.go.com/blog/seattle-seahawks/post/_/id/17441/how-seahawks-russell-wilson-stacks-up-to-panthers-cam-newton

Excerpt:

Wilson also averaged 8.33 yards per attempt (fourth) compared to 7.75 for Newton (seventh), so this is not a case of one quarterback dinking and dunking. Both guys have shown they are capable of pushing the ball downfield.

Wilson averaged one explosive completion (20-plus yards or more) every 8.05 attempts. Newton averaged one every 9.52 attempts.

In the first meeting back in Week 6, the Panthers produced four explosive pass plays, while the Seahawks had five.

Against the blitz

	Passer rating	NFL rank
Russell Wilson	109.7	6th
Cam Newton	111.8	3rd

Both quarterbacks put defensive coordinators in a bind. Do they try to prevent Wilson and Newton from leaving the pocket? Or blitz to try to produce pressure?

Newton was blitzed on 39.7 percent of his dropbacks, second most among quarterbacks. And he did damage on a consistent basis, throwing 19 touchdowns and just three interceptions when opponents sent five or more rushers.

Wilson was also very good against the blitz, but he faced extra pressure less than Newton (29.0 percent; 21st).

The Seattle and Carolina defenses have picked their spots when it comes to sending pressure. The Panthers ranked 17th in blitz frequency during the regular season, while the Seahawks ranked 26th. It would be a surprise if either team strayed too far from those numbers Sunday, given how well Newton and Wilson have performed against the blitz.

From the pocket

	Passer rating	NFL rank
Russell Wilson	118.6	1st
Cam Newton	99.8	9th

This one goes hand in hand with the category above and helps explain why both guys have been so good this year. Often when quarterbacks use their athletic ability, critics assume they can't operate from the pocket. But that's not the case with Wilson and Newton.

Wilson's 118.6 passer rating from the pocket was the best single-season mark of any quarterback in the past three years. Newton was also top 10 in the category at 99.8, after finishing 22nd (85.7) in 2014.

Both players can run, but they don't have to run to be effective. If given time, they can do damage from the pocket.

Rushing

	Attempts	Yards	YPC	TDs
Russell Wilson	103	553	5.37	1
Cam Newton	132	636	4.82	10

The Panthers use more designed runs than the Seahawks, but as we saw Sunday, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will still call on the read option with Wilson.

The big number that stands out here is 10 -- Newton's rushing touchdowns. Those were all from inside the red zone. In the entire NFL, only Pittsburgh's DeAngelo Williams had more red zone rushing touchdowns than Newton. He's a weapon when the Panthers get close and a big reason they scored touchdowns on 68.3 percent of their red zone trips, the second-best mark in the league.

[FootballMaestro]

If we're going to go by stats, instead of film analysis.

There was another comparison by ESPN on Newton and Wilson.

In it, they pointed out the disparity between Wilson and Newton's "In The Pocket TD" vs Out Of The Pocket. After, they went on to discuss both in the pocket, and what it meant, what they thought.

I'm only saying that, cause Passer Rating doesn't tell it all (Wilson's propensity to roll out and bootleg, then throw floaters on so many of his TD's).

[IGSaint]

Great thread KB_fan. 

[KB_fan]

Here's the link to the Sporting Charts site match up stats between Panthers & Seattle

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/teams/matchup/364-carolina-panthers-vs-361-seattle-seahawks/

I'll post screen shots of these charts soon.

[KB_fan]

Here's a comparison of overall offensive stats for the entire regular season:

CURRENT:

 

Interestingly, Seattle is one of the few teams for which I actually saved screen shots of the match up stats prior to our week 6 game.  Here's what our stats looked like prior to our October game with the Hawks:

WEEK 6:

 

Both offenses improved over the course of the season in terms of overall rank (yards per game) and scoring.  Both stayed very strong in rushing...  Our 5 point scoring advantage looks like it could be a huge factor.

More offense stats details below.

 

[KB_fan]

Here are a lot more offense stats.  Pretty even.... we lead in 9 categories, they lead in 10 categories.  Our scoring efficiency is key.  We score more touchdowns per game, both passing & rushing.  More rushing big plays.  Ball security, turn overs & the Oline play are likely to be big factors as well.

CURRENT

 

Here's what those matchup stats looked like in October:

WEEK 6

Our scoring efficiency and 3rd down efficiency have improved markedly, as has our % caught and drops %.

 

 

 

[KB_fan]

To make it easier to compare our offensive stats from what they were prior to our game against Seattle in Wk 6, versus our end of season stats, here's a side-by-side look:

We improved in 11 of 19 categories over the course of the season

Per game stats are based on 4 completed games prior to our week 6 matchup with Seattle. 

[KB_fan]

Here's what that same comparison in terms of offensive stats looks like for Seattle between week 6 and the full season stats.

Not surprisingly given Seattle's poor play early in the season, they improved in 13 of 19 offensive stats.  Per game stats for week 6 are based on 5 games played.

[X-Clown on 1]

Not to jinx it, but Cam has not thrown an interception in over a month!  The turnover battle will be huge this game, as it always is when we play SEA.  However, probably the biggest stat that gives me confidence is that in week 6, we were -2 in TO differential an still won.  We take care of the ball on Sunday, and we're looking good.

[KB_fan]

Now for a look at the matchup on defense.

Here's the comparison of the current overall stats & rankings:   Both defenses are very solid, but Seattle edges us out in each overall stat:

CURRENT:

 

Here's what that comparison looked like prior to week 6.  Both defenses have improved, but Carolina's points allowed has increased slightly.

WEEK 6:

 

[KB_fan]

But, while Seattle may "lead" in the overall stats, a closer look at the details, shows Carolina is actually stronger on defense in 8 of 12 categories, with 1 category being even.

Our defense is tops in terms of opponents low scoring efficiency - fueled by our awesome takeaway stats.

CURRENT:

 

Here's what those matchup stats looked like prior to Week 6's game:  We've had big improvements since week 6 in stuffed percentage, forcing fumbles.   I'll post side by side week 6 and full season defense stats comparisons for CAR & SEA below

WEEK 6:

 

[KB_fan]

I'll get to the week 6 vs. full season defensive stats comparison for both CAR & SEA soon, but I need to take a short break.  Before I do, just for the record, here is how the team leaders match up, via Sporting Charts:

[KB_fan]

On to some additional articles previewing the game & the matchup:

BBR: The challenge of containing Wilson

http://blackandbluereview.com/containing-russell-wilson/

EXCERPT:

 

 

Quote

 

Against the pass, Ealy and the front four were able to generate plenty of pressure on Wilson, picking up three of Carolina's four sacks and hitting him three other times. As cliché as it sounds, it really does start up front.

"We have to make sure that all four guys are rushing at all times. It can't be one guy. We need four guys constricting and collapsing the area around the quarterback,” defensive line coach Eric Washington said.

"That's really the plan we have for every quarterback, but it's especially important with a guy with his kind of mobility. We need to keep him in front of us and keep him in the pocket."

Yet that's only half the challenge.

 

THE BACK END

 

Seattle tight end Jimmy Graham is on injured reserve, so the Panthers don't have to worry about him in the rematch, but here's an example of what Wilson can do when guys in the defensive backfield let their man slip for just a second:

http://i2.wp.com/blackandbluereview.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/russell-escapes.gif

"You've got to plaster, man. If the play's supposed to be like three seconds, when the guy gets out, he'll extend that sucker to like 10,” Norman said. "The wide receivers are taught and trained that once the play breaks down, stick and go high. And we've just got to stick and go high with them.

"Wherever they go — if they want to go to the bathroom, we've got to go to the bathroom, too."

So if Norman runs off the field with Seahawks top wideout Doug Baldwin, you'll know why. Against Seattle, if you open the door, Wilson will bust right on through.

"Russell's had a career of doing this and that's one of the key components of when you play him. You have to be fundamentally sound. You have to take advantage of the opportunities, especially in the playoffs,” Allen said. "You never which play is going to be the play that costs you to lose a game. Every play counts.

"You can't say, 'Oh, we'll get him next time.' There may not be a next time, so when you've got to chance to get him on the ground, you've got to make sure you do it."