And the analytics say.....

[heelinfine]

Im so sick of all the people that think that analytics and advanced metrics are the be-all and end-all. 

This year it has been used ad nauseam to validate a popular narrative or discredit opposing points of view.

[!stUp]

[KB_fan]

6 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

The Panthers are the most productive team in the 2nd quarter in the NFL since the merger with an increase in scoring margin from the end of the 1st quarter to halftime of 133 points. Only 13 teams since the merger have eclipsed the 100 point mark in 2nd quarter scoring margin.

For some perspective, the Panthers have a scoring margin of +176 points at the half this season. The Cardinals are +79 at the half.

Love those momentum stats.

Here's more.  It's just mind blowing.

http://espn.go.com/blog/carolina-panthers/post/_/id/18912/three-things-panthers-must-do-to-support-roman-harpers-argument-they-are-the-better-team

Quote

Start fast: Carolina has outscored its past five opponents 111-17 in the first half. That includes a 31-0 blitzkrieg of Seattle in last week’s divisional playoff game. The Panthers ranked second during the regular season with an average of 6.6 points in the first quarter. That number goes up to 7.7 in home games.

 

[-13 Amp-]

2004 Steelers were 15-1 lost champ game to the pats

[Semaj]

Interesting that all 3 guys picked Carolina in the game 

[Verge]

Am I incorrect in thinking that the last couple of years, the number one seeds in the playoffs met in the superb owl? 

[KB_fan]

For REAL Analytics, here's your article.  Football Outsiders has an AMAZING game preview of the CAR vs AZ matchup for the stats geeks.  I really enjoyed reading it.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2016/2016-nfc-championship-preview

Perhaps the most encouraging section was that the most obvious weakness of AZ defense is one of our offensive strengths this year.  RED ZONE performance:
 

Quote

 

Arizona's defense did have one clear weakness according to DVOA, and it was the same weakness that the Cardinals had on offense: the red zone. The Cardinals' DVOA dropped from third in the league to 23rd once the opponent reached the 20. Arizona struggled in the red zone against both the run and the pass. On the other side of the ball, this is a battle of relative weakness vs. relative weakness, but the Carolina offense excelled in the red zone. Of course, part of that is Cam Newton's running ability, which really opens up a lot of options (including the option!) for the Panthers when they get close to the goal line. Newton was a big reason why Carolina finished second in converting short-yardage "power" runs this season. Newton had exactly half of Carolina's 50 power runs, and he picked up a first down on 23 of them, a conversion rate of 92 percent. His teammates converted only 64 percent of these runs. (Arizona, by the way, was slightly better than average defending short-yardage runs on the whole field.)

Yet as good as they are running in short-yardage situations, the Panthers were even better passing than running when they got inside the 20, ranking third in red zone pass DVOA but 11th in red zone running. It helps when your best receiver is your big tight end.

 

 

The other section that is interesting is the discussion of Arizona's HUGE reliance on the blitz, and the fact that Cam has had major success against the blitz this season.  Here's an excerpt:

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So what does this constant blitzing mean for this Sunday's NFC Championship game? Well, blitzing Cam Newton was a very popular strategy for NFL defenses this season, but "popular" is very different from "successful." Essentially, if the Cardinals hold to their usual modus operandi, they'll be playing right into Newton's strengths.

Newton was blitzed on 39.7 percent of dropbacks this season. Among regular starting quarterbacks, only Cleveland's Josh McCown was blitzed more often. Except when opponents blitzed Newton, he actually got better. Against five pass rushers, Newton completed just as many passes but threw them deeper for more yardage. Against a big blitz of six or more, Newton's completion rate went down, but his average yardage was still higher than it was against four pass rushers, and he did not throw a single interception.

Cam Newton by No. of Pass Rushers, 2015
Pass Rushers	C%	Yd/At	NetY/P	T   D	Int	QBR
3-4 rushers	61.1%	7.48	6.53	16	7	68.9
5 rushers	61.6%	8.49	7.53	12	3	78.4
6-7 rushers	53.4%	7.78	6.62	7	0	84.5

 

[Jangler]

Analytics or numbers double talk makes me think of Pat Paulson