kungfoodude

The QB market is crazy right now. Curious to see if it will come back to earth or it just stays this high for a while.

If he flames out, you will be able to tell that our current coaching staff doesn't have much ability to identify QB talent.

I believe in his ceiling quite a bit. I see it as higher than Wilson's. Gun to my head....I probably take Wilson as the safer bet. But, I also have Lance at 4 and he is an extremely polarizing prospect. My big board is a direct reflection of not seeing competent QB play since healthy Cam. That's a long streak of watching a bunch of "who dat" players pilot this sinking franchise.

If you think trading up for a QB in this draft was pricey, it might be even worse next season if the class is projected the way it is currently. All that with the prospect of another 2-3 veteran QB's possibly looking at retirement. The rookie QB situation is always largely hopeful to some extent, even if his doubters are many. It's the fresh, new prospective franchise QB smell. I still think we can end up with an elite player at 8, whether both LT's are gone and/or all top 4 QB's.

If you just look at the history of top 10 QB's who flamed out at their initial stop, the odds of him panning out are fairly long. As I have said a few times in the post-Darnold era, I understand the homerism/"Hope springs eternal" outlook by the majority of the fanbase. I am just in the same position as I was last offseason around this time, seeing a QB I knew was very unlikely to be the answer we needed and wondering how much farther along the rebuilding path we will be in 2021. I will say that I genuinely would rather watch the top 4 guys be off the board at 8 than watch us pass up on one. Not matter how much I will like the prospect we signed, I will dread watching the future of whichever of those guys slips past us. But, maybe Darnold just blows up and proves all this doubt wrong. Wouldn't that be such a nice, easy solution? I just wish I believed in it.

I expect to land a good player at 8. The thing I hope we don't end up talking about is how we passed on one of the bright young QB stars of the NFL in 2-3 years while we are still mired in either a QB search or a QB/coaching staff search.

It would be nice to go into the 2022 offseason NOT wondering how many years this rebuild will last. Sam Darnold is more likely than not going to lead to that sort of mindset. At least with a rookie QB there can be some sort of hope we can trick ourselves into, however fleeting. I think the bulk of the fanbase would be furious about passing on Fields. I don't think the Sam Darnold fan club is as deep as you believe them to be.

1. Lawrence 2. Fields 3. Wilson 4. Lance 5. Sewell 6. Slater 7. Pitts 8. Chase

And you have to remember that your personal opinion isn't the Panthers. It is entirely possible they would draft a QB at 8. We will see whether that is even an option in a couple of weeks. IMO, the odds of one of the top 4 being available are getting slimmer by the day.

You are accuse others of injecting your own personal feelings into the situation but you are literally doing this. You even said that Rhule didn't comment on Darnold being the starter.

You seriously think we'd see a falling QB like Fields or Lance and just say, "Nah?" If we do......we pretty much deserve what we get for the next few years.

I would rather gamble on the unknown. Darnold is mostly a known at this point. I am 100% fine hedging that bet by taking a QB at 8, if one of the top 4 is available.

There are definitely a lot of really dumb franchises in the top 7. I don't know that any of them are dumb enough to take Parsons.

And that has what to do with NFL news???

There is almost no chance a trade that dumb would happen.

Well, Darnold's flaws are long proven in the NFL. So is a known flawed QB better than an unknown flawed QB?

Yeah, I think most of us have been expecting that for a while now. The vibe was that it didn't seem like he was a part of the future plans and Teddy hasn't really seemed to be particularly enthusiastic about the Panthers after we have been scouring the earth to find an upgrade.

If his confidence is that fragile, he really had no future in the NFL whatsoever.

No doubt. Any real fan does. That doesn't mean you aren't allowed to have your own opinions about what the team does, however. Let's hope they are right in this move. If it is a HR, it will be a very cheap way to get a franchise QB.

I think there is more to success than the numbers too. But that is why I am even more skeptical. Darnold just doesn't seem to have "it" when you watch his film.

I think if you browse through the signing day threads, you will see most of them are pretty heavily tilted in the "pro-Darnold" direction. Even now the majority are in that camp. Some of it is just fairly typical fan homerism, which is completely understandable. I think the skeptics and flat out anti-Darnold crowd(which is perhaps a little larger than the anti-Teddy crowd was) are a relative minority. Absolutely agree with the rest of your post. If Darnold flames out, the fans are going to be up in arms and the staff will be firmly on the hot seat.

https://brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/ The Deep Ball Project did a breakdown of his deep passing and I think he sums up Darnold pretty well(not to mentioned nailed what ended up happening).

Yeah, I hope so too. I think part of the problem is that he hasn't developed much at all. That is a big concern because it is something you see a lot in the QB busts.

Well, I took a look at three different measures of offensive line futility in 2020; Football Outsiders Adjusted Sack Rate, ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate and Pro Football References Pass Pressure Percentage. I took the bottom ten of each ranking, the QB with the most starts on the team and then compared them across a wide variety of QB statistical measures from multiple sources(PFR, Football Outsiders, NFL Next Gen Stats). This resulted in a group of 19 QB's from "oft pressured" teams. The amazing thing was that across a very wide variety of QB's(career backups, veteran journeymen, rookies, players with less than 3 years of NFL experience, elite QB's, etc), Sam Darnold managed to finish in the bottom five of almost every statistical category(10 of the 11, to be exact). So, while I completely understand that he didn't have good protection, none of these QB's had good protection last season, Darnold was just so consistently bad. The only other QB to be as consistently in the bottom five, was Dwayne Haskins. Frankly, there have been very few QB's in the NFL(if any) over the past three seasons that have been as bad as Sam Darnold. That should be a concern to every Panthers fan. How much of this is Adam Gase? Almost assuredly a decent chunk of it. How much of it is lack of talent around him? Probably a significant portion of it. But how much is just him not being able to have what it takes to be a successful NFL QB? That is the million dollar question. My fear, is that we are going to find out the answer to that question will end up being, "Enough to matter." Adjusted Sack Rate Bottom 10 10. Baltimore - Lamar Jackson 9. Cincinnati - Joe Burrow 8. Jacksonville - Gardner Minshew 7. Minnesota - Kirk Cousins 6. New York Giants - Daniel Jones 5. New England - Cam Newton 4. New York Jets - Sam Darnold 3. Seattle - Russell Wilson 2. Philadelphia - Carson Wentz 1. Houston - Deshaun Watson Pass Block Win Rate Bottom 10 10. Carolina - Teddy Bridgewater 9. Tennessee - Ryan Tannehill 8. Jacksonville - Gardner Minshew 7. Dallas Cowboys - Andy Dalton 6. Miami Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa 5. Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger 4. Cincinnati - Joe Burrow 3. New York Jets - Sam Darnold 2. Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert 1. New York Giants - Daniel Jones Pressure Percentage Bottom 10 10. Houston - Deshaun Watson 9. Washington - Dwayne Haskins 8. San Francisco - Nick Mullens 7. Seattle - Russell Wilson 6. Denver - Drew Lock 5. Philadelphia - Carson Wentz 4. New York Jets - Sam Darnold 3. Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert 2. New York Giants - Daniel Jones 1. Minnesota - Kirk Cousins Completion % 1. Watson - 70.2 2. Bridgewater 69.1 3. Wilson - 68.8 4. Cousins - 67.6 5. Herbert - 66.6 6. Minshew - 66.1 7. Newton - 65.8 8. Roethlisberger 65.6 9. Tannehill 65.5 10. Burrow - 65.3 11. Dalton - 64.9 12. Mullens - 64.7 13. Jackson - 64.4 14. Tagovailoa - 64.1 15. Jones - 62.5 16. Haskins - 61.4 17. Darnold - 59.6 18. Wentz - 57.4 19. Lock - 57.3 Total Yds/GM 1. Watson - 329.2 2. Herbert - 304.7 3. Wilson - 295.4 4. Burrow - 283.0 5. Cousins - 276.4 6. Minshew - 268.0 7. Bridgewater - 267.5 8. Tannehill - 255.3 9. Roethlisberger - 254.2 10. Jackson - 250.8 11. Mullens - 244.5 12. Wentz - 241.3 13. Jones - 240.4 14. Lock - 237.9 15. Newton - 216.6 16. Haskins - 212.2 17. Dalton 207.7 18. Darnold - 202.1 19. Tagovailoa - 192.3 Total TD's/GM 1. Wilson - 2.6 2. Tannehill - 2.5 3. Herbert - 2.4 4. Watson - 2.4 5. Cousins - 2.3 6. Jackson - 2.3 7. Roethlisberger - 2.2 8. Minshew - 1.9 9. Wentz - 1.7 10. Burrow - 1.6 11. Tagovailoa - 1.4 12. Lock - 1.4 13. Dalton - 1.3 14. Newton - 1.3 15. Bridgewater - 1.3 16. Mullens - 1.2 17. Darnold - 1.0 18. Jones - 0.9 19. Haskins - 0.8 Total TO's/GM 1. Tagovailoa - 0.5 2. Tannehill - 0.6 3. Watson - 0.8 4. Dalton - 0.8 5. Newton - 0.9 6. Roethlisberger - 0.9 7. Herbert - 1.0 8. Burrow - 1.0 9. Jackson - 1.0 10. Minshew - 1.0 11. Bridgewater - 1.1 12. Wilson - 1.2 13. Darnold - 1.2 14. Cousins - 1.3 15. Jones - 1.3 16. Lock - 1.4 17. Haskins - 1.6 18. Mullens - 1.7 19. Wentz - 1.8 TD% 1. Wilson - 7.2 2. Jackson - 6.9 3. Tannehill - 6.9 4. Cousins - 6.8 5. Watson - 6.1 6. Roethlisberger - 5.4 7. Herbert - 5.2 8. Minshew - 4.9 9. Dalton - 4.2 10. Tagovailoa - 3.8 11. Wentz - 3.7 12. Mullens - 3.7 13. Lock - 3.6 14. Burrow - 3.2 15. Bridgewater - 3.0 16. Jones - 2.5 17. Darnold - 2.5 18. Newton - 2.2 19. Haskins - 2.1 INT% 1. Burrow - 1.2 2. Watson - 1.3 3. Minshew - 1.5 4. Tannehill - 1.5 5. Roethlisberger - 1.6 6. Herbert - 1.7 7. Tagovailoa - 1.7 8. Jones - 2.2 9. Bridgewater - 2.2 10. Wilson - 2.3 11. Jackson - 2.4 12. Dalton - 2.4 13. Cousins - 2.5 14. Newton - 2.7 15. Haskins - 2.9 16. Darnold - 3.0 17. Wentz - 3.4 18. Lock - 3.4 19. Mullens - 3.7 QBR 1. Tannehill - 78.3 2. Jackson - 73.7 3. Wilson - 73.5 4. Watson - 70.5 5. Herbert - 69.5 6. Bridgewater - 64.2 7. Cousins - 63.2 8. Jones - 61.5 9. Roethlisberger - 60.1 10. Burrow - 56.2 11. Dalton - 53.8 12. Tagovailoa - 52.5 13. Minshew - 51.7 14. Wentz - 49.6 15. Lock - 48.8 16. Newton - 47.0 17. Mullens - 43.6 18. Darnold - 40.1 19. Haskins - 31.0 QB Rating 1. Watson - 112.4 2. Tannehill - 106.5 3. Wilson - 105.1 4. Cousins - 105.0 5. Jackson - 99.3 6. Herbert - 98.3 7. Minshew - 95.9 8. Roethlisberger - 94.1 9. Bridgewater - 92.1 10. Burrow - 89.8 11. Dalton - 87.3 12. Tagovailoa - 87.1 13. Mullens - 84.1 14. Newton - 82.9 15. Jones - 80.4 16. Lock - 75.4 17. Haskins - 73.0 18. Wentz - 72.8 19. Darnold - 72.7 AV 1. Wilson - 18 2. Jackson - 17 3. Tannehill - 17 4. Watson - 16 5. Cousins - 14 6. Herbert - 13 7. Newton - 12 8. Bridgewater - 12 9. Roethlisberger - 9 10. Jones - 8 11. Burrow - 7 12. Minshew - 6 13. Dalton - 5 14. Tagovailoa - 5 15. Mullens - 5 16. Lock - 5 17. Wentz - 4 18. Darnold - 3 19. Haskins - 0 DVOA 1. Watson 20.2 2. Tannehill 19.6 3. Cousins 12.0 4. Herbert 10.2 5. Wilson 8.1 6. Bridgewater 2.0 7. Roethlisberger 1.1 8. Jackson -0.7 9. Burrow -7.3 10. Mullens -7.7 11. Tagovailoa -8.5 12. Minshew -11.0 13. Lock -16.2 14. Dalton -16.7 15. Newton -17.7 16. Jones -22.4 17. Darnold -32.2 18. Wentz -35.9 19. Haskins -40.1 Completion Percentage Above Expected 1. Watson +4.8 2. Cousins +4.3 3. Wilson +4.0 4. Burrow +3.7 5. Minshew +2.9 6. Tannehill +2.4 7. Bridgewater +2.3 8. Herbert +1.5 9. Dalton 0.0 10. Jones -0.5 11. Jackson -0.7 12. Tagovailoa -1.4 13. Roethlisberger -1.8 14. Newton -2.6 15. Nick Mullens -3.1 16. Darnold -3.2 17. Lock -3.9 18. Wentz -4.1 19. Haskins -7.1 Time To Throw 1. Roethlisberger - 2.30 2. Dalton - 2.50 3. Tagovailoa - 2.55 4. Haskins - 2.55 5. Bridgewater - 2.60 6. Mullens - 2.63 7. Burrow - 2.65 8. Herbert - 2.69 9. Tannehill - 2.69 10. Jones - 2.76 11. Minshew - 2.77 12. Newton - 2.84 13. Watson - 2.84 14. Darnold - 2.85 15. Drew Lock - 2.87 16. Cousins - 2.88 17. Wentz - 2.91 18. Wilson - 2.97 19. Jackson - 2.98

I know everyone wants to jump on Gase for setting Darnold up to fail, but I am concerned that he wasn't ever able to get up to NFL speed after three years. Certainly Gase deserves blame for not tailoring his offense to suit a more limited QB in Darnold but Sam also never was able to get up to speed, either. That is the thing that concerns me more than anything else. Perhaps he just isn't able to process at NFL speed.