Ricky Spanish

Think back to 2011. How crazy would you sound if you said Rodgers and the pack wouldn't make it back to the SB over the next 11+ years? Tom Brady has ruined everyone's expectations of how to win a SB.

One scenario is directly related to the ability to build a team and controllable, the other is related to chance. Apples and oranges man.

Yeah, his cap will be at 42.4 Million in 2023, which is the last year of his contract. QBs generally don't play on the last years of their contract so expect him to want to negotiate after this coming season. His Cap will probably stay at 42.4 million in 2023, then jump up even more in 2024 and beyond to match the rising Cap. Average cap increase year over year (,minus the pandemic) was 10.74 million. With a conservative estimate of the cap going to 218 Million, his 2023 Cap hit would be 19.4% again. It's likely to stay at or around there moving forward. It's not sustainable for long term success, especially when we will have limited draft capital to build a team around him.

Bro, do you not know how percentages work? The 12.6% number is consistent year in and out over the past 20+ years regardless of the cap.

https://www.spotrac.com/spots/super-bowl-qb-cap-percentages-1397/#:~:text=The median cap percentage for a QB to win the,all named Brady or Manning). This is one of the biggest reasons I am so against the Watson trade. We would not only be depleted of our draft assets, but a huge chunk of our cap would be allocated to one player with limited means of filling out the roster with talent via the draft or FA. Watson's Cap hit % next season = 19.4% That's without Darnold's dumbass contract tacked onto that. So in total we would be allocating 28.4% of our entire team's Cap to the QB position... This is HORRIBLE Roster management. I don't think the people that want Watson comprehend just how bad this deal will be for this franchise moving forward, specifically next season alone. Tack on a completely depleted defense and we are in roughly the same situation the Texans were in two years ago after the Laremy Tunsil trade. The team's best course of action is to take the hit this season, suck for a year, Fire Rhule, and hit the reset button with our likely top 5 pick in 2023. We are far more likely to win a SB with a QB on a rookie deal than we ever will be with Watson based on the numbers alone.

I swear to god this fanbase completely forgot about the Saints from 2012-2016. With Elite QB play and bottom 5 defense, the ceiling is 7 wins per season. And that's with an elite playcaller and top 5 coach in the league behind the elite QB. We would have McAdoo and Rhule behind the elite QB, so our ceiling probably caps out at 6 wins max. 3 top 10 picks to the Texans over three seasons. Bite the bullet, suck this year, clean house, draft a QB round one next season and build around him, WHILE HE'S ON HIS ROOKIE CONTRACT. Jesus, the rams are the only team in the past decade + who won the super bowl with the QB taking more than 12% of the salary cap at a time, and a good chunk of that money was going to Goff.

FTFY

You never question a Hurney first round pick. Rounds 2-7 are a different story. But never the first round.

It's sad that my first reaction to seeing news of any player hitting FA is now "Why would he even want to come here?" Thanks Tepper and Rhule.

Everyone get in here and pie everyone else.

Guys, I made it through the thread to page 111.

He's good. Taking a step back for the time being.

We need to scoop up all the seats available so no one shows up.

Build A round him with what? All those draft picks we'll have? No picks until round 4 this year, then round 3 the next two years All the Money for Free Agents we'll have? We will be tied to his and CMC's contracts, we'll need to pay Burns and Moore soon to. Our line already sucks, not like we'll have the money to pay for that. All the remaining talent on the roster we'll have? If we trade those players away, we'll be without 2 starters that we'll need to replace right off the bat. Then we'll lose some to free agency soon thereafter. A trade with that price tag makes no goddamn sense for a team who hasn't been to the playoffs in 4 years.

Dude if we make this trade, we'll have even fewer picks, still no offensive line, and even less cap space. We'll just have a QB with no talent surrounding him and no means to surround him with talent.

@rippadonn it's our boy. For those who don't know, Matt Waldman has some GREAT content on youtube for upcoming draft prospects each year. This video is on Carson Strong, he has another on Matt Corral that is also good. Interesting tidbits about Strong from the video: He is trending to be healthy for next season His arm is going to get stronger the more his leg heals He was told not to play this past season due to fear of injuring his leg further. He refused because he didn't want to let his team down. He had complete control at the line of scrimmage to make checks and call whatever he wanted based on what the defense gave him. Utilizes hard counts to figure out what the defense is giving him. Him and Corral are my two dudes that I would want out of this year's class.

There are other teams besides those two who need OL help. All are more attractive destinations than us on Paper. Even if we do attract a guy to come play for us, do you really anticipate he'll be any good? This is the coaching staff that brought in Elflein and Erving day one of FA last offseason (because versatile!) then passed on Slater because he has short arms, then didn't play Christensen at LT until the last two games of the season due to, again, short arms, and then he played the best of any LT on the roster all season... I don't have faith they even know what a decent OL looks like.

Again, why would they come here then? Both Miami and Cincy have more money, they can outbid us. Cincy just went to the super bowl in spite of their terrible line and Miami has the benefit of being a really nice place near the beach as well as no state income tax so that's even MORE money they get to keep. "We have opportunity to start!" Yeah, that's about all we have to offer. We don't have the money, the location, or the prestige to offer that many other franchises do at the moment. I anticipate us scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of quality linemen in FA this offseason, unless we overpay, which will do nothing but hurt us long term.

Feel the same way about him as I do about Watson.

This is where I am at in terms of the deal necessary to make this trade happen. At a certain point, it becomes less enticing of a destination for Watson based on the assets given up to acquire him. We're already strapped for talent and draft capital as is. Strip the next three drafts of 1st and 2nd round picks as well as take away two starting caliber players from our roster. We will solve the QB position but then we're out assets to recoup everything given up to get the QB. We would become the Fcuking Detroit Lions of the past decade with Stafford as their QB - Stud QB, terrible coaching, and no talent to surround said Stud QB. Watson would come into this team looking for talent and help like: It's a net loss for us to get Watson based on the price tag alone not even taking into account the sexual assault allegations on top of it all.

I'm honestly not sure. I have Corral and Strong as my two favorites with Pickett then Ridder behind. I'd be thrilled if we took Corral honestly.

apparently it is capped at a 5th due to him being a 10 year vet. Either or, solid chance we recoup it.

Welp. We know who the worst QB in the draft is bois.

I lean towards No and No myself, but the second "No" is really complicated. I think in a vacuum, I'll be honest, I could potentially see myself doing enough mental gymnastics that would allow me to still pull for the franchise if no criminal charges are filed against Watson. But it's not just that, it's all the dipshittery leading up to the decision to make the deal in the first place that makes it feel like pulling for this team is a lost cause. Hiring Rhule, Extending CMC while he still had years left on his rookie deal, Releasing Cam, Drafting all Defense in 2020, Signing Teddy to a dumb contract, trading Teddy, Trading for Darnold, signing turnstiles to play on the line due to "versatility", Drafting a Corner in the 1st round in the 2021 draft, trading a 2022 3rd for Henderson, Signing Cam back Mid Season to try and fix the Darnold Boner, Rotating QBs in the middle of games, not playing the linemen they actually took in the draft and then playing them out of position when they do, "Short Arm"-gate 1 and 2, going 2-12 the final 14 weeks of the season, and finally - retaining Rhule for a lame duck season in 2023. The above isn't even a full list of all of the dumbassery this franchise has engaged in over the past 3 or so years. Trading For Watson would be the poo icing on the poo Cake that has been Carolina Panthers football since Tepper took over. Mortgaging the future for a guy with that kind of baggage with the limited cap space and talent currently on the roster SCREAMS short sighted and profoundly stupid, especially taking into account the track record of the current regime.