MHS831

This is a good story--I LOVED his dad as a person and player--I talked to him at an OTA (he was back for his second stint) and he was talking about Moore (the WR from Wake Forest) being so young. I was with my teenage son and told him, "This is Taylor. He and I attended the OTAs when you were in Rock Hill as a rookie." He jokes, "Was he in diapers then?" and laughed. I imagine Moose III was in diapers when we chatted that day. So I really would love for this to work out. However, his stats do not suggest he was anything special in college.

I guess there are signs. The combination of the turf toe, hamstring, and knee issues led to questions about his long-term health and affected his draft stock, causing him to fall to the second round. Here is what I know about a knee injury. It changes nearly every aspect of your lower body movement. So the turf toe and hamstring could be related. It makes him seem injury prone. I guess the knee was not the most recent injury, so the others could have been a result of favoring the knee. Johnson did not run the 40 at the combine or pro day. That suggests there is something he feels might drop his value. So if you downplay the severity of the injury, have a history of possibly related injuries, and refuse to demonstrate (when given multiple opportunities) that you are fully recovered, don't get mad when your stock drops.

I saw something where Will Johnson said that he will "make the league pay" for passing over him. He wanted a team to pay full price for potentially damaged goods. I recently did not buy a 2023 Honda Odyssey because I did a CarFax and determined that it had been in a rather severe accident the year before. The salesman (the car's agent) failed to mention it. He was trying to get nearly full retail on the book value, and I passed on him and the car. It may be fine. It may be a great car and take a happy family to Disneyland one day. I was not passing on the car's present ability, I was passing on the increased risk that there would be a problem that resulted from this damage in the future.

Joe Person working on his next piece of Journalism. In fairness to Joe, Morgan was deceptive and tight lipped this year. And I think Graham would have been the pick had he fallen.

If we can have 4 good ones at the top of the roster (I see Coker as a lock--along with TMac, AT, and XL) the bottom two should be developmental players, one with special teams skills. That is how I would develop it. The bottom two? Depends on special teams, as you know. I am not confident Renfrow makes the team but I sorta want him to--we are very young at WR and two veterans would balance the inexperience. I see Horn making it (special teams/WR), but I also see George or Hudson having a good camp and making the team. Moore? If Renfrow does not make it, I feel that Moore will be #5. Horn is the front runner for #6 (special teams). If George and Hudson go to the PS and can develop for a season, in 2026 AT and maybe Moore/Renfrow will be gone. One or both could step up. This is in an ideal world, of course. But to have 2 developing WRs on the PS

Its math AND Scientology.

You were right about Howard. He dropped to the sixth and I think Pittsburgh got a good developmental QB... One thing we know--don't assume Person knows more than we do. When he is at his best, he is repeating tweets from Rappaport. I realize you have to fill the page, but damn--he has no connections.

That is why I dont go back and read my crap. Cringe. I just thought it was funny--and I agreed with you at the time.

I don't normally brag, but I was exactly right with this prediction.

I predict that Sanders will be drafted in the fifth round, around pick 144, by the Browns. I know this is not popular, but I just have a gut feeling.

This is what a lot of us thought--but since it was wrong, I decided not to post my bad predictions when there are others. Just having fun reading this thread--everyone was wrong--everyone.

With the benefit of hindsight---I don't think we knew about the medical concerns/knee. Arizona got him at 47. The risk dropped him.

We won 5 with the worst defense in the history of defenses. I think free agency and our draft puts us over 6.5.

and he is running with his arms going across his body--that costs you speed. Hands should be front to back, not side to side. And yes, keep your limbs within your frame on a pass route--throwing your hand out is a tell and it is wasted motion. not only does it give away the route, but nobody ever caught a ball with their hands 3 feet apart. Still, I like him. Lets see if they take those flaws out of his game. I get the feeling that he may not have been the primary focus at CU, so we shall see.

The bottom of the roster was horrible in 2024. I see 2 winnable spots at CB behind Horn, Jackson, Smith-Wade. Evans and Bartholomew were on the roster at the end of the season and will have to defend their spots from Broughton, Thornton and Reid. (I like Reid) I see a safety spot going to an UDFA. We have three in the mix--don't sleep on Jack Henderson. Martin-Scott and Nomura have shots at LB. Fitzgerald is probably our next kicker Tarquin could be kept to develop RT dept moving forward post Moton I will predict that 4 UDFAs from this list make the roster if it stays pretty much the same. It is a good group.

Yes--I think that is what they are doing. Both Safeties have the ability to play deep. When the coaches were asked, they said the same things about both Safeties. I am not sure that we are going to have a pure free safety.

Horn looks quick and he seems to be humble--he sounds like Armanti Edwards when he talks--The thing that impresses me about Horn is his balance and his speed out of breaks. Watch again and see what I mean. This guy could be a gem.

The difference between the edge players in the first round and those found as late as round 3 was not significant. Morgan was very smart not to take a question mark edge at 8 when he may have picked two who have more upside at edge.

I think Walker is a great kid and could become a great player if used correctly. However, we needed edge help and as an edge, he was not a top 10 player. I think players like Micah Parsons give GMs visions of similar returns, but Walker's value lies in his versatility. There was a time when I wanted him--not going to lie--but I preferred trading back more. At #8, I just could not find a player worth that high a pick that checked all the boxes.

I mean, if Clowney was playing lights out, an edge making $10m is a bargain. He would not be upset if there were other teams with open wallets waiting to give him a 2-3 year deal. He was a stop gap, and now our developmental talent needs some sunlight. If Clowney were to stay and have a good year, he is a 33-year old free agent. If our two draft picks get a combined 12-15 sacks, then you know that they got more production at the edge position for less money and we are building. Clowney has flashed. He is a great specimen and tremendous football player. His mindset is not a dawg, however.

There is a real science to it that involves math and if you don't know the language, you are history (see what I did there?) . You need soldiers before you need generals--Morgan did a great job in this draft, imo. He wanted to trade back--more picks. Yes, most of the picks will not pan out, but most of the NFL starters were not first round picks. Free agency is like dealing with a loan shark to make the house payment--you have to draft strategically.

Suggestion: If it is too long for you and you can't read it, don't comment on it. Your uniformed opinion is not required.

Sorta related. I just looked up a stat: Success rates for NFL draft's second rounders. I was surprised that it is 49%. The success rate for first rounders is 58%. Here success does not mean those that did not bust, it means that roughly half of the players selected in the second round become full-time starters at some point in their careers. Busts do that too. However, considering the fact that a first round talent is worth up to 1800 points (first overall pick) more than the first pick of the second round and as low as 350 points (last pick in first round) higher than the last pick in round 2, it seems there could be cases in which it would be to your advantage to trade out of round 1 and draft two or three second rounders for the value. Of course, the elite players are likely to be gone, and some positions overwhelmingly suck after round 1 (traditionally, like QB or LT, for example), but if you need to find starters at positions like DT, G, LB, S, C, TE, RB, etc, there could be a time when you trade back for more starters. I was surprised that the margin between rounds 1 and 2 was only 9%. While I realize that some of you sofa scholars are thinking, "Well duh? Trading back gives you more players." as you wipe the Cheetos off your shirt. Not the point. The point is you have to consider the draft,the needs (and the number of them), and you need to scout the second and third rounds like you do the first, the cap, and the long-term impact. If you can find 2 players with a 49% chance of becoming a starter, are you better off than drafting one player who has a 58% chance in the long term? So if I traded away my first rounder for two second rounders (a trade most teams would make) regularly, when I got 10 second rounders (by trading 5 first rounders), 5 would be starters. If I did not trade and kept my 5 first rounders, 3 would be starters. Furthermore, their rookie contracts would be much cheaper than the 5 first rounders.

I see several players who could make this roster. This is a pretty impressive group of free agents--no "home runs" like Coker last year, but I see OL help (probably going to PS) I see a safety and LB and CB or two making this roster. After the mini camp today and tomorrow, you might see a few more roster cuts. That will give us some idea of what they see down the road.