Stats & Analysis - 2014 & the 2015 preseason (Keys to winning)

[KB_fan]

Over on my blog, Panthers Analysis, I've posted a series of 3 entries with various statistics regarding the Panthers 2014 season, and the 2015 preseason:

Panthers Statistics - Comparing 2014 Regular Season & 2015 Preseason

Top 10 / Bottom 10 - Panthers' Statistics in 2014 & 2015

Reviewing the Panthers' Preseason Gamebooks - Part 1: The Data

 

Just now, I've completed the series with a 4th entry, analyzing some of the highs and lows and trends I noted in the data:

Reviewing the Panthers Preseason Gamebooks - Part 2: Analysis

The Panthers 2015 Preseason is now in the books.  Having looked at each of the gamebooks, the overall preseason stats, and also having reviewed the 2014 season stats with its statistical highs and lows, what are some of the takeaways?

I find quite a few encouraging trends that developed throughout the preseason:

- a few areas where we improved notably over 2014 season levels. 

- a few areas where we struggled the first 1 or 2 games, but really turned things around in games 3 and 4

- some areas where we were strong in 2014 in which we continued to show strength in the 2015 preseason.

 

There are also some areas of perpetual struggle - areas in which we were bad in 2014 and continued to show weakness in the 2015 preseason, and a few areas where we regressed somewhat with our preseason levels falling behind the levels attained in 2014 and which could threaten our success in the 2015 season.

See what you make of the data and my conclusions.

For discussion:

1) What would you all point to as reasons to be encouraged and reasons to be discouraged?  

2) What statistical categories do you expect us to dominate in during 2015? 

3) In which categories do we risk being in the bottom 10 for the upcoming season?   

4) Which data (besides wins, of course!) do you consider to be most important - in other words, in what areas must we succeed in order to make it into the postseason?

I hope you find the data and analysis interesting.   Please share your own thoughts even if you don't have time to dig into all the data I've provided!

 

[Ivan The Awesome]

Could you make an analysis on how much gravity is being defied by Dave Gettleman's nipple shorts, through the years?

[Roebling]

Not to be a complete debbie downer....... But looking at statistics in the preseason is close to worthless. Quite often, the starters aren't playing and the type of play-calling is severely different. I don't think you can really make any conclusions based off of these statistics. 

[KB_fan]

Not to be a complete debbie downer....... But looking at statistics in the preseason is close to worthless. Quite often, the starters aren't playing and the type of play-calling is severely different. I don't think you can really make any conclusions based off of these statistics. 

Sure, I realize this, and I think I repeated several times in the various entries that preseason stats don't mean much. 

But even if you want to ignore much of the preseason data, (especially the preseason "rankings"), in the entries I posted there's also a comprehensive review of how we performed in 2014 with categories in which we were top 10 and bottom 10.  These at least give a refresher of where we need to stay strong, and where we need to improve.

Furthermore, although preseason data may not be comparable to regular season data or predictive of success in the regular season, I did think the game by game review of the preseason gamebook data side by side did give a good picture of momentum or lack thereof during the preseason, at least giving a few areas one might want to pay close attention to in the first week or two of the regular season.

For instance, it was very encouraging to see our time of possession increase each game of the preseason, our penalties decrease each game, the number of 1st downs we allowed our opponents decrease each game, etc.  It shows we picked up the pace and began to gain strength, especially defensively.  Offense and Special teams was a bit more mixed - there are fewer clear trends in terms of improvement during the preseason.

Finally, I thought it quite notable to note the decreased number of QB sacks which we allowed during the preseason.  If we continue at the same rate throughout 2015 as we did this preseason, that would mean allowing only 20 sacks during the season, which would have ranked us 3rd in the league in 2014.  Last year we allowed 42 sacks, ranking us in 20th place.

Last preseason we allowed 10 sacks - ranking us 20th in the preseason and putting us on pace for 40 sacks - very close to the levels we actually allowed during the regular season.  That seems to be one stat which could be quite significant in terms of the big improvement seen in this 2015 preseason.

So... take it all with large doses of salt.  We'll see the reality and the games that count beginning on Sunday.  But in the meantime, hope there's interesting food for thought.

 

[KB_fan]

Panthers.com today posted a good article by Bryan Strickland & Max Henson re: 8 Keys to a Successful season.

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/Eight-keys-to-successful-2015-season/e17c2800-bd4c-4eec-b063-ef951d21fb54

It's pretty honest re: Cam needing to increase his completion percentage, Red-Zone scoring needing to improve, and Special Teams needing to improve.  Here are the main points:

NEWTON INCREASES COMPLETION PERCENTAGE: Quarterback

Cam Newton has spoken openly about his desire to increase his completion percentage. Newton completed 58.5 percent of his throws last year, and for his career, he averages 59.5 percent. If he can utilize his check-down options more often and get that percentage near 65 or above, Carolina's entire offense will take a step forward. - MH

OFFENSIVE LINE CONTINUES ITS RISE: After a rough start to say the least, the offensive line finished off 2014 in style. Carolina returns four starters from the group that got things going and has added Michael Oher at left tackle. All in all, the line looked good in the preseason. If Jonathan Stewart, the NFL's second-leading rusher over the final five games of 2014, is to keep rolling, he'll need the men up front to start strong. - BS

FUNCHESS MATURES QUICKLY: With No. 1 wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin out for the year, the Panthers will need second-round draft choice Devin Funchess to play a substantial role. At 6-4, 235 pounds, he has size that no other Carolina receiver can offer. Funchess can become a mismatch. He doesn't need to be Benjamin, but Carolina will need the big target to get on the same page as Newton quickly and emerge as a viable threat to keep defenses honest. - MH

MORE EFFICIENCY IN RED ZONE: The defense allowed opponents to score touchdowns on 63 percent of their red zone chances last season - ranked next-to-last in the NFL, and the offense ranked 27th with touchdowns 46.8 percent of the time. The good news is that just six teams allowed fewer red zone chances than Carolina's defense, while the offense actually ranked 11th in scoring percentage thanks to Graham Gano's leg. But as head coach Ron Rivera is apt to say, you can't win games kicking field goals. - BS

JOHNSON PACES D-LINE: When defensive end Charles Johnson is firing on all cylinders, the Panthers defense is at peak performance. When he's slowed, the entire unit suffers, as we saw at the start of last season. A consistent pass rush sets the table for the entire defense. And a consistently productive Johnson will attract extra attention, allowing other linemen to enjoy one-on-one matchups. - MH

MORE OF THE SAME FROM KUECHLY AND DAVIS: The best linebacker duo in the NFL just needs to keep on keeping on. The Panthers have come to expect elite performances from Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis week in and week out. There's no reason to expect anything less. - MH

SECONDARY PLAYS TO POTENTIAL: General manager Dave Gettleman believes this is the best secondary he's had in Carolina. Experienced veterans like Charles Tillman, Roman Harper and Kurt Coleman are smart and dependable. But young corners Josh Norman and Bene Benwikere have the talent and athleticism to make plays on the ball and take this unit to new heights. - MH

SPECIAL CIRCUMSTANCES: Special teams miscues cost the Panthers too many times last season. The return of Ted Ginn, Jr. immediately upgrades the return game, but the coverage units were still a work in progress during the preseason. Carolina needs to bury the threat of hidden yardage. - BS

[KB_fan]

Could you make an analysis on how much gravity is being defied by Dave Gettleman's nipple shorts, through the years?

Wow, I'd need a computer with a lot more memory & oomph to analyze such a weighty topic... LOL!