Week 7 WIN against Philadelphia - Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

PFF grades & notes for the game:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/10/26/phi-car-grades-stewart-newton-power-panthers-to-remain-perfect/

Carolina Panthers

– A fully fit and firing Jonathan Stewart (+3.2) is one of the most enjoyable running backs to watch in the NFL, and he certainly brought his A-game against the Eagles last night. Stewart forced six missed tackles en route to his first 100-yard game of the season.

– The stars of the Panthers’ defense were, without question, the two men stationed at the second level, but Carolina’s best defensive player so far this season, and once again last night (+7.0), has been Kawann Short. Recording a career-high grade for the second week in a row, Short racked up nine pressures (two sacks, seven hurries), a batted pass, and five stops to earn his sixth straight positive grade to start the year, and his eighth straight dating back to last season. Ahead of Monday Night Football, Short sits as our No. 2-ranked interior defender after seven weeks.

– After he came out firing on the opening drive with a strike to Philly Brown (+1.2) to set the Panthers up on the Eagles’ goal line, this proved to be a rough night for Cam Newton (-0.8) as a passer. Forcing balls into coverage and missing throws high, Newton managed to avoid the plays to turn the game against his team, and chipped in with a couple of solid gains of conversions on the ground to help the Panthers to a sixth straight win.

Top performers:

DT Kawann Short (+7.0)
MLB Luke Kuechly (+4.3)
WLB Thomas Davis (+4.0)
C Ryan Kalil (+3.6)
HB Jonathan Stewart (+3.2)

[PandaPancake]

Allen was on NFL Radio talking about Luke and TD. I wish I the exact quote but he mentioned how all night it seemed that he was getting out of their way

[KB_fan]

According to PFF Ed Dickson was the worst TE in week 7:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/10/26/worst-players-at-every-position-for-week-7/

Tight end: Ed Dickson, Panthers (-4.4)

Dickson’s receiving grade was pretty average, but that’s because he only ran six routes and wasn’t targeted. His run blocking, however, was well below average last night. Three times the Panther’s running back was forced to change direction because Dickson lost his block, on top of the multiple stops he allowed. His -3.4 run block grade is the single-reason he made this team.

 

And they think Bene was one of the worst two CBs in week 7:

Cornerbacks: Bené Benwikere, Panthers (-4.0) and Johnthan Banks, Buccaneers (-3.9)

Both cornerbacks’ had remarkably similar stat lines in their games. Both were thrown at eight times and allowed seven receptions. Benwikere allowed 62 yards, while Banks allowed 66. Benwikere didn’t allow a touchdown, but he did surrender multiple first downs, and missed two tackles while in coverage. He missed another one against the run. Banks allowed a touchdown, but also had a pass defensed. He also missed three tackles, all of them in coverage. Despite not giving up a ton of yards, it was a tough day for both of these cornerbacks.

 

Luke & KK make their Best Week 7 players list:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/10/26/best-players-at-every-position-for-week-7/

Defensive interior – ends: Kawann Short, Panthers (+7.0) and Ndamukong Suh, Dolphins (+4.2)

One of the best-kept secrets in the NFL was how good of a player Short is. It’s not a secret anymore, because he’s playing as well as any defensive lineman in the league. Suh annoyed with three penalties, but he also had five disruptions on the quarterback, including two sacks.

 

Linebackers: Dont’a Hightower, Patriots (+7.5) and Luke Kuechly, Panthers (+4.3)

It feels like every week either Kuechly or Thomas Davis makes this team, with this week the turn of Kuechly, who narrowly edged his teammate out for a spot. Partnering him, Hightower made seven defensive stops and added a ridiculous seven hurries. You don’t see performances like that very often.

[KB_fan]

There are some things I like about PFF, but they really have me shaking their head with their linebacker grades.  As is evident above, TD graded very highly on Sunday, and they talk about him being a great player every week, yet they have Luke ranked 1st with a 95.7 grade overall and TD 25th with a 72.2 overall grade. 

It just doesn't add up.  It seems to be his run defense grade that's pulling him so low.  37.6?!?!?!?!  Is that a typo?  Luke's run defense grade is 89.3

I really don't like these new season grades.  Bring back premium stats....

[KB_fan]

REALLY nice analysis of the Panthers from Grantland (thanks to BBR for the link!)

Duct tape & popsicle sticks... and combined age of Tillman & Harper is 66 - LOL.   And yet 6-0.  So cool.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nfl-week-7-winners-and-losers-panthers-and-vikings-are-turning-up-the-heat-but-texans-get-barbecued/

The Panthers

This is real, people. The Panthers are here to stay. Carolina beat up Sam Bradford and the Eagles offense yesterday, and it meant a decisive win even without Cam Newton playing his best.

It’s worth talking about just how impressive Ron Rivera’s run in Carolina has been lately. How Rivera and Sean McDermott manage to piece together a top-flight defense every year with Popsicle sticks and duct tape is beyond me. The Panthers have played half of their games without Luke Kuechly, are starting Charles Tillman and Roman Harper — combined age, 66 — in the secondary, and were so desperate for edge-rushing help with Charles Johnson out that they sent a pick to Chicago for Jared Allen. Oh, and they came into the week ranked fifth in defensive DVOA. It’s kind of amazing.

But there’s talent on that side of the ball outside of Kuechly. Thomas Davis is about as steady as it gets now that the football gods have decided to spare him, Kawann Short has turned into a problem (for offenses) as an interior pass-rusher, and Josh Norman is now a black hole for receivers. Their presence explains how the Panthers can remain great on defense even with the aforementioned injuries. How they’ve managed to put together the 11th-most efficient offense in the league with Ted Ginn and Corey Brown is an entirely different story.

It starts with the running game. Carolina was fourth in rushing DVOA before Jonathan Stewart ran all over the Eagles, who had one of the best run defenses in football. Stewart is hitting his stride after a slow start, and part of that is this offensive line playing better than most would have expected. Trai Turner, who Carolina took in the third round a year ago, is turning into a star, and Ryan Kalil is healthy and playing as well as any center in football.

The Panthers averaged 4.03 yards before contact per rush yesterday, comfortably their best mark of the season and more than enough for a guy with Stewart’s talent. Carolina’s formula is simple: It’s going to play great defense, run the ball well, and let its quarterback make the occasional spectacular throw to put it over the top. Through seven weeks, it’s worked like a charm.

[KB_fan]

I'm not a fan of SI, but I grudgingly have to admit, they have a pretty nice analysis of the Panthers this week.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/10/26/nfl-week-7-panthers-eagles-jonathan-stewart

1. The Panthers are fully committed to power football

In an era when the buzzwords all seem to be about multi-receiver sets and the decline of the physical game, the Panthers come across like something from another generation. They're not, really. What they’re doing on offense isn’t very different than what the Seahawks and 49ers have put together in their recent tenures of success. When you combine an intimidating, dominant rushing attack with a quarterback capable of creating big plays on the ground and through the air and a group of targets who know where they're supposed to be, you can still win in today's NFL. And they were just as resolute about the physical nature of that offense on this Ted Ginn, Jr. end-around...

 

The equation was simple, and deadly effective. The Panthers took Philly’s estimable pursuit-based front seven and put it on its heels by forcing it to play an unfamiliar power game. A hugely improved offensive line is the key to it all, with center Ryan Kalil and right guard Trai Turner worthy of special mention.

[mikencP226]

Scott Fowler's analysis of the game at the Observer is quite worth reading.   I appreciated these stats which he threw in. 

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/scott-fowler/article41421639.html

And yet, he picked the Eagles to win.

[KB_fan]

Goodness, even the New York Times is giving the Panthers press... but it's not really very positive, and it focuses much too much on the scheduling "quirks" that have contributed and might continue to contribute to our success.  Sigh. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/sports/football/carolina-panthers-stay-undefeated.html

Here are two excerpts that include some stats:

Cam Newton was a tepid 14 for 24 for 197 yards Sunday night in a 27-16 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles and threw three interceptions. That performance was not out of character for him this season. Of the 43 quarterbacks who have started a game this season, Newton ranks just 31st in adjusted yards per pass attempt. He has six wins, but only one 300-yard passing game.

Part of Newton’s value has always been his ability to run, and he ranks second to Russell Wilson this year with 245 yards rushing. But he is averaging only 4.5 yards a rush, well below the other mobile quarterbacks and by far the lowest average of his career.

The Panthers have not dominated on the scoreboard. Their victories have come by an average of 9 points, for a plus-52 point differential. That figure trails the undefeated Patriots, Packers and Bengals (as well as the 4-2 Cardinals), though it does top the Broncos, another undefeated team that has not dazzled so far. Over all, the team’s offense ranks only 23rd in yards per play.

 

the defense has been sharp, especially against the pass. It ranks fifth in points allowed and third in yards per play allowed behind Denver and the Jets. Newton’s adjusted yards per attempt figure of 6.3 looks poor until it is compared with the league-leading 4.6 figure that the Panthers’ defense is allowing. Carolina has essentially turned every quarterback it faces into Matt McGloin.

Cornerback Josh Norman has four interceptions, already a career high, which ties him for the league lead. The team has nine, two off the league lead.

The Panthers are also excelling at some of the little things. They have lost only one fumble, and have the fourth fewest penalty yards. Both of those statistics, though, are traditionally subject to significant fluctuations over the course of a season.

[KB_fan]

Thanks to David Newton for a very nice & interesting stat:

http://espn.go.com/blog/carolina-panthers/post/_/id/16635/sudden-change-defense-is-a-big-reason-the-panthers-suddenly-are-relevant-again

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Twice on Sunday night the Philadelphia Eagles began a drive inside the Carolina Panthers' 40-yard line after Cam Newton threw an interception.

Both possessions resulted in field goals.

In terms of "sudden change," that was a win for the Carolina defense.

It’s nothing new. The Panthers (6-0) have allowed only 12 points this season after an interception or fumble, otherwise known as "sudden change." That’s the third fewest in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information.

Carolina is one of four teams that haven’t allowed a touchdown on a drive following a turnover. Seattle, St. Louis and Green Bay are the others.

The ability to limit their opponents in "sudden change" situations is a big reason the Panthers are off to the best start in team history heading into a Monday night game against Indianapolis.

[caatfan]

In terms of "sudden change," that was a win for the Carolina defense.

Haven't heard that term before. I now feel like a less ignorant fan. I have noticed that we aren't making turnovers very profitable for teams.

[Mr. Scot]

You do a great job on these, KBF.

Not a stat, but worth pointing out something an Eagles fan mentioned. Specifically that Josh Huff, the guy who dropped an end zone pass late in the game, was drafted in the third round ahead of Donte Moncrieff, Martavis Bryant, Jalen Saunders and John Brown. As to why, they point to the college he attended (three guesses).

[KB_fan]

Looks like we're still leading the league in toxic differential.  Positive turnover ratio, and making some big plays while limiting opponents' big plays.  Nice.

from Sporting Charts:http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/toxic-differential/2015/

[KB_fan]

We've dropped to second in net turnover points.  "Giveaway points" basically would be the "sudden change defense" stats that David Newton was writing about.  I'd never heard the "sudden change" term before, but I have been following the net turnover points stats all season.

We're 8th in takeaway points, and 3rd in giveaway points - 2nd overall.

Also via Sporting Charts:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-net-turnover-points-statistics/2015/

It will be interesting to dig a little more deeply and look further at points scored per takeaway and points allowed per giveaway, since this net points chart doesn't account for the number of team takeaways or giveaways.  How efficient or opportunistic is a team in capitalizing on a takeway? Are the low number of giveaway points due to very few turnovers, or good defensive play preventing points scored following a giveaway?

[frash.exe]

Here's my analysis:

 

WOLFMAN BRADFORD GUNNA GET YOU WHEN YOU SLEEP HRRRRRNNNNGGGG