Week 7 WIN against Philadelphia - Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

Here's the chart with more details on takeaways and giveaways - i.e. turnover differential.  We've dropped from a season best +8 turnover differential following our week 4 win against Tampa down to a Turnover differential of +4.

We're 5th in interceptions caught with 9, and 7th in total takeaways with 12.

We're 17th in fewest interceptions thrown (7), but tied for first in terms of fewest fumbles (1), meaning we're 8th in terms of total giveaways (8).

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-takeaway-giveaway-statistics/2015/

[bigskypanthersguy]

Carolina Panthers the mythbuster team of the NFL, the antithesis of sports experts, the defier of defeat, and the envy of the league.  We are no longer an underdog or the best kept secret.  We are not satisfied and now with the culture of winning has been officially established, we are aiming for the Super Bowl and will destroy any opponent in our way.  We are in the greatest time period of our franchise and it has just started.  

That defier of defeat line needs to be placed on merchandise.

[KB_fan]

It's interesting to note, although not too surprising, that the turnover differential stats do a pretty good job of reflecting which teams are winning...  again making it surprising that we won against both Seattle & Philly with a -2 turnover ratio in each game.

Of the current 12 teams who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, 

http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

11 of them (all but Indy, which has a losing record and would only make the playoffs by winning the division... cough cough) are in the top 14 in terms of turnover differential.

The other teams in the top 14 are St Louis, Eagles & Oakland, all of whom are still in the playoff picture.

[KB_fan]

Using that takeaway & giveaway data from Sporting Charts, I popped the data into Excel to calculate the points PER takeaway and points per giveaway:

Here is a ranking in terms of points per takeaway:

Panthers are averaging 3.5 points scored per takeaway - 11th highest.

Team	Take aways	T/A points	points per T/A
Baltimore Ravens	4	22	5.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	41	4.6
Kansas City Chiefs	9	40	4.4
Arizona Cardinals	15	66	4.4
Tennessee Titans	9	37	4.1
Pittsburgh Steelers	9	36	4.0
Chicago Bears	7	27	3.9
Atlanta Falcons	12	46	3.8
St. Louis Rams	13	49	3.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	7	25	3.6
Carolina Panthers	12	42	3.5
Miami Dolphins	8	26	3.3
Buffalo Bills	11	35	3.2
Indianapolis Colts	7	22	3.1
Philadelphia Eagles	19	59	3.1
New York Jets	15	45	3.0
Seattle Seahawks	9	27	3.0
New York Giants	16	45	2.8
Cincinnati Bengals	9	25	2.8
Denver Broncos	17	47	2.8
Houston Texans	6	15	2.5
New England Patriots	8	20	2.5
Minnesota Vikings	9	22	2.4
New Orleans Saints	11	26	2.4
Oakland Raiders	11	26	2.4
Dallas Cowboys	3	7	2.3
Green Bay Packers	10	23	2.3
Cleveland Browns	9	20	2.2
Detroit Lions	11	21	1.9
San Francisco 49ers	7	12	1.7
Washington Redskins	10	16	1.6
San Diego Chargers	7	7	1.0

[KB_fan]

But, look at our defense!!  We're allowing our opponents to score only 1.5 points per each of our 8 giveaways.  3rd best.  SWEET.

Team	Give aways	G/A points	points per G/A
Green Bay Packers	4	3	0.8
Philadelphia Eagles	15	21	1.4
Carolina Panthers	8	12	1.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	6	10	1.7
Seattle Seahawks	9	15	1.7
Atlanta Falcons	10	17	1.7
Minnesota Vikings	7	13	1.9
Miami Dolphins	9	18	2.0
New York Jets	11	23	2.1
St. Louis Rams	9	21	2.3
Oakland Raiders	9	25	2.8
Dallas Cowboys	12	35	2.9
San Diego Chargers	13	38	2.9
Cleveland Browns	15	46	3.1
Denver Broncos	11	34	3.1
New Orleans Saints	11	34	3.1
Baltimore Ravens	11	36	3.3
Detroit Lions	18	59	3.3
Indianapolis Colts	15	50	3.3
New York Giants	6	20	3.3
Buffalo Bills	11	38	3.5
Kansas City Chiefs	8	28	3.5
Arizona Cardinals	10	36	3.6
Tennessee Titans	13	47	3.6
Cincinnati Bengals	6	22	3.7
Jacksonville Jaguars	10	38	3.8
San Francisco 49ers	7	29	4.1
New England Patriots	3	13	4.3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	11	48	4.4
Washington Redskins	12	54	4.5
Chicago Bears	8	39	4.9
Houston Texans	11	55	5.0

Green Bay is just KILLING the Give Away stats though - hardly allowing any give aways, and allowing only 1 FG so far on their 4 give aways.  New England has allowed 1 fewer give away than Green Bay, but has allowed 10 more points... near the bottom of the league in terms of points per give away.  But when you only allow 3 give aways in 6 games... I guess it doesn't matter if you don't do such a great job in limiting "sudden change" points...!

[KB_fan]

We're 4th best in the league in terms of the differential between our points scored per takeaway and our points allowed per giveaway:

Team	points per T/A	points per G/A	points per T/A - G/A/ dif
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.0	1.7	2.3
Baltimore Ravens	5.5	3.3	2.2
Atlanta Falcons	3.8	1.7	2.1
Carolina Panthers	3.5	1.5	2.0
Philadelphia Eagles	3.1	1.4	1.7
Green Bay Packers	2.3	0.8	1.6
St. Louis Rams	3.8	2.3	1.4
Seattle Seahawks	3.0	1.7	1.3
Miami Dolphins	3.3	2.0	1.3
Kansas City Chiefs	4.4	3.5	0.9
New York Jets	3.0	2.1	0.9
Arizona Cardinals	4.4	3.6	0.8
Minnesota Vikings	2.4	1.9	0.6
Tennessee Titans	4.1	3.6	0.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.6	4.4	0.2
Indianapolis Colts	3.1	3.3	-0.2
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.6	3.8	-0.2
Buffalo Bills	3.2	3.5	-0.3
Denver Broncos	2.8	3.1	-0.3
Oakland Raiders	2.4	2.8	-0.4
New York Giants	2.8	3.3	-0.5
Dallas Cowboys	2.3	2.9	-0.6
New Orleans Saints	2.4	3.1	-0.7
Cleveland Browns	2.2	3.1	-0.8
Cincinnati Bengals	2.8	3.7	-0.9
Chicago Bears	3.9	4.9	-1.0
Detroit Lions	1.9	3.3	-1.4
New England Patriots	2.5	4.3	-1.8
San Diego Chargers	1.0	2.9	-1.9
San Francisco 49ers	1.7	4.1	-2.4
Houston Texans	2.5	5.0	-2.5
Washington Redskins	1.6	4.5	-2.9

 

[KB_fan]

Ok, one more table from me for now.  I was curious about our current standings in points per game and points per game differential.

It seems like a lot of our games have been close affairs, but we're still quite high up the rankings in terms of points per game differential.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/points-for-and-against/2015/

Our 27 points scored per game is 6th best.

Our 18.3 points allowed per game is 5th best (tied with Seattle).

Our PPG differential of 8.7 points per game is 5th best. 

[KB_fan]

More on our running game dominance, from Panthers.com.  Of particular note is the fact that we're the only team with more run plays than pass plays.  That surprises me.  I'd expect with the scarcity of top QBs that at least a few other teams would also be focusing more on running than passing.

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/Powerful-Run-Game-Setting-The-Tone/abc580b0-3740-4288-8586-ab542312ded4

 

The Panthers want a powerful run game to be the foundation of the offense.

"We want to set the tone. We want to be a physical team by nature," Rivera said Monday. "We are learning how to do that."

Through seven weeks in 2015, the 6-0 Panthers rank first in the NFL with 144.7 rushing yards per game. They are the only team in the NFL with more runs (197) than passes (181).

During Sunday night’s 27-16 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, Carolina rushed for 204 yards with 6.2 yards per attempt and produced three touchdowns on the ground. Running back Jonathan Stewart rushed for a season-high 125 yards on 24 carries. Quarterback Cam Newton, typically a big part of the run game both by design and via scrambles, rushed just four times for 20 yards.

"Having 200 yards rushing is a stat I know our offensive line is pretty proud of," Shula said. "Stew was running like crazy and our line was blocking really well."

[KB_fan]

From the PFF Power Rankings (they have us ranked 3rd)... these stats about Ryan Delaire

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/10/27/pff-nfl-power-rankings-for-week-8/

3. Carolina Panthers

Undrafted rookie Ryan Delaire has a pass rushing productivity of 10.1, best for rookie 4-3 defensive ends. He has two sacks, two hits, and five hurries on 72 pass rushes.

[KB_fan]

I was just browsing the Football Perspective site and came across a pretty cool article & graph.... showing the incredibly strong production continuing to be put out by the running backs from the 2008 draft class ... which of course includes our own J Stew and Mike Tolbert.

And the data below is only through week 6.... just wait until they add Stew & Tolbert's week 7 yards!!

Here's an excerpt.  There's more at the site.

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/running-back-class-of-2008-still-going-strong/

Running Back Class of 2008 Still Going Strong

by Chase Stuart on October 23, 2015

in Rushing, Statistics

Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Justin Forsett, Jonathan Stewart, Danny Woodhead, Mike Tolbert, Darren McFadden, Marcel Reece, and Jerome Felton all entered the NFL in 2008. So did Steve Slaton, the rookie rushing leader that year, and Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Bush, Peyton Hillis, and Felix Jones. Analyzing where the ’08 class ranks in NFL history is a project for the offseason, but today, I thought it would be fun to look at rushing yards by running backs by class year.

The graph below shows that data through six weeks of the 2015 season. As you can see, players in their 8th NFL season — those who entered the league in 2008 — are doing quite well.

The class with the most rushing yards so far in 2015 are the rookies. That class is currently led by Thomas Rawls, but has also received strong production from higher picks like Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, and T.J. Yeldon. After the class of ’15, there’s a gradual decline with respect to production by older classes. And then, there’s the class of 2008.

[KB_fan]

Also at Football Perspective, a fascinating analysis of a QB's ANY/A  (average net yards per attempt) while leading and while trailing.  Cam is average when leading, but sizzling when trailing.  VERY INTERESTING!!

Here's an excerpt:

http://www.footballperspective.com/quarterback-passing-stats-while-trailingleading/

Quarterback Passing Stats While Trailing/Leading

by Chase Stuart on October 24, 2015

in Quarterbacks, Statgeekery

^[...]

But I thought it would be fun to see how every quarterback has fared this year while leading and then while trailing, with a minimum of 30 pass attempts in each situation. That’s what graphed below, and the two guys who really stand out are Cam Newton and Andy Dalton.  The Bengals quarterback has been outstanding this year in both situations, while the Panthers quarterback has been significantly more impressive this year while trailing.  In the graph below, the X-Axis shows ANY/A while leading; for Newton, that’s a pedestrian 5.5 ANY/A.  The Y-Axis shows ANY/A while trailing, which is an incredible 9.2.

[...]

Not included in the graph above: Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, who each have at least 119 passes while leading but under 30 while trailing (for what it’s worth, both have been outstanding while trailing, with Rodgers at 10.9 ANY/A and Brady at 12.0!). Matthew Stafford, Colin Kaepernick, Blake Bortles, Jay Cutler,and Jameis Winston all have at least 114 passes while trailing but less than 30 while leading. And, even more incredibly: Andrew Luck has just 6 passes while leading, 129 while trailing, while Josh McCown has only 3 (!) passes while leading but 140 while trailing.

[KB_fan]

I've just pulled the Panthers week 7 player grades and rankings from PFF.  Here's a look at the overall grades and rankings for all the players on our roster over the past 3 games.

The list is sorted in order of week 7 overall grades, highest to lowest.

Big Movers:  Jonathan Stewart, KK, Jared Allen, Philly Brown, TD

I'm really surprised by how low the grades continue to be for Star, Bene, Dickson, Colin Jones, AJ Klein & Mike Remmers.

[Ken]

There are some things I like about PFF, but they really have me shaking their head with their linebacker grades.  As is evident above, TD graded very highly on Sunday, and they talk about him being a great player every week, yet they have Luke ranked 1st with a 95.7 grade overall and TD 25th with a 72.2 overall grade. 

It just doesn't add up.  It seems to be his run defense grade that's pulling him so low.  37.6?!?!?!?!  Is that a typo?  Luke's run defense grade is 89.3

I really don't like these new season grades.  Bring back premium stats....

Forgot which one but he had a bad game against the run. Pretty sure that hurt his grade. Either the Texans or Saints game.

[tiger7_88]

ESPN Crew with some nice things to say (finally)...

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=13980216