Week 13 WIN against the Saints - Stats & Analysis

[Skydivingcows]

I still like the fact that we have won 4/4 games against current "playoff picture" teams *cough*no-one*cough*.  No other team in the picture has won more than 3.  (including Jets who are now in 6th)

• trailed going into the 4th quarter only twice this season, next best team is at 3 trails, and we have only trailed about 57 snaps all year, can't find exact count though.
• average giving up 25.07 yards a drive on defense. #1 in the league.
• opponents average 0.193 turnovers per drive, highest in NFL
• opponents average 2:14 minutes per drive, lowest time in the league
• average 20:01 minutes per game where we have the lead and the ball, "TOP while leading."  #1 in the league. 

lead the league in minutes per game where we have the lead at 40:52 minutes per game average.  Due to the odd nature of trailing in OT we are 3rd lowest in gametime spent losing.  Speaking of trailing in OT...

• First and only team to trail and still win in OT (vs. Colts)
• First and only team to allow a QB to throw and catch his own pass for a Touchdown (vs. Vikings)
• First and only team to allow opponent to score on our XP attempt (vs. Saints)

Trivial Pursuit type stuff right there.

 

[KB_fan]

4 hours ago, Skydivingcows said:

I still like the fact that we have won 4/4 games against current "playoff picture" teams *cough*no-one*cough*.  No other team in the picture has won more than 3.  (including Jets who are now in 6th)

• trailed going into the 4th quarter only twice this season, next best team is at 3 trails, and we have only trailed about 57 snaps all year, can't find exact count though.
• average giving up 25.07 yards a drive on defense. #1 in the league.
• opponents average 0.193 turnovers per drive, highest in NFL
• opponents average 2:14 minutes per drive, lowest time in the league
• average 20:01 minutes per game where we have the lead and the ball, "TOP while leading."  #1 in the league.

Great collection of stats, thanks!  I hadn't realized we're the only team to have 4 wins against current potential playoff teams.  Nice.

[KB_fan]

I think this article has already been posted as a main thread topic, but there's an excellent analysis of Cam's case as an MVP cadidate over at PFF.  It focuses particularly on what his running ability brings to our offense, and I recommend it as a good read.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/12/09/pro-defining-the-value-in-cam-newtons-mvp-candidacy/

Here's an excerpt:
 

Quote

 

The Panthers run QB-power with Newton. This is a play no other team in the NFL would run with their quarterback regularly, if at all, but the Panthers do it often with Newton. This isn’t him acting as a decoy or a second option to a run play that isolates a defender—this is power football sending your quarterback into the teeth of a defense and relying on his strength and the blocking to get it done.

If you have a quarterback who becomes a threat to do this, suddenly everything changes.

Teams are used to defending the running game by essentially discounting the quarterback. His job is to hand the ball off and then get out of there, leaving blockers and the ball carrier against the defenders up in the box. If he becomes a threat to carry the ball, as well, suddenly the numbers changes, and you need an extra defender to account for that. Start moving another defender in to counter that, and suddenly you’re exposed in coverage. Newton forces you to defend all 11 players and make choices in terms of deployment on defense that other quarterbacks don’t.

He also runs the same option plays that have become something of a niche in today’s NFL:

This works on the same theory as we just talked about—trying to change the numbers game when it comes to the run, but the way it usually swings the balance back to the offense is by leaving one defender unblocked, or “optioned,” and showing two distinct runs to defend.

Here, there are actually three potential runs (with the pitch guy included), but the basic idea is that the DE (Cameron Jordan, No. 94) has to decide whether to play the inside zone play and chase after the running back, or maintain outside contain and attack the quarterback. Newton reads the line of attack from Jordan and makes him wrong, whatever he does. The 49ers used this heavily in the early days of Colin Kaepernick, the Seahawks use it with Russell Wilson plenty, and even the Bengals use it with Andy Dalton. Almost every run play the Eagles have shows an option look to the defense to try and freeze that defender and improve the situation inside, even if they virtually never keep it with the quarterback anymore.

One other way the Panthers can mess with defenses (because of Newton’s unique threat to run) is running from empty sets. Again, this is something that other teams can do, but in a slightly different way.

 

 

[KB_fan]

With all the winning the Panthers are doing, the quantity & quality of analysis about our games has increased sharply.  It's getting really hard to be able to keep up with a lot of what's being written.

Here now is another really nice analysis of our offensive diversity by Greg Cosell, posted at Yahoo Sports

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/greg-cosell-s-week-13-review--the-panthers--offense-is-tough-to-defend-154911572.html

There's a lot of really nice analysis of plays of the Saints game.  Here's one:

Here’s a touchdown pass in which the read and triple-option element was in play based on the formation. Brown shifted into the backfield, and the defense had to wonder about the option run play. Ginn ran deep against an inverted “Cover 2” zone, and Anthony ran with him. The deep player on the back side, cornerback Kyle Wilson, had no awareness that Ginn was coming from the other side of the formation, and Ginn had a 45-yard score.

 

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(NFL.com screen shot)

 

[TheWiz]

On 12/7/2015 at 8:04 AM, KB_fan said:

I liked this quote from Ron Rivera re: Cam's development as a QB - especially his confidence in leading 4th Q comeback drives:

on Cam Newton’s fourth-quarter comeback
“That is one of the things that we get out of this that we will certainly build on, that he was able to win a shootout and take a drive in the fourth quarter to give us a chance to win. It goes back to his whole development as a quarterback in this league. I am really proud of what he did and the confidence in which he played with (today).”

via the "Quotes to Note" article at BBR where there's much more great commentary

http://blackandbluereview.com/quotes-to-note-panthers-at-saints/

Here's where I disagree with the coach and the world on Cam Newton. 

Cam has been big time gamer since he came into the league. These are the environments in when he flourishes. This is where he shines where others dont... 

November 26th 2010... the come back vs Alabama. 

When Cam entered the league, he was tearing it up. In his rookie season.. The 2nd game of the season vs GB where we were a few yards short of a comeback drive? We should have seen it then.

Remember last year when the Bengals couldnt stop Cam all game... and what did we do? We went for the tie. 

The point is... Cam Newton has matured and he has grown. But Cam has always had the ability and has displayed it day one. 

The people who have grown the most is the coaches. They didnt know how to use Cam. They finally took the lid off of him.. and themselves. Coach Rivera has grown. Mike Shula has also come along quite nicely. 

Our defense gets alot of credit.. and they're stout. But the reason this offense is as productive as it is this year is because they took the limits off of Cam. This isnt a new thing... the difference is He's been given more control of the offense, and the coaches are getting out of their own way. 

[KB_fan]

@TheWiz that's an interesting perspective.

I've certainly heard Ron admit that he and the coaches have grown.  One thing that seems clear, and I've read several times in recent weeks, is that our offense changed as of the New Orleans game last season when we began our year-end winning streak.  And yes, as you write, it changed in terms of giving Cam the freedom to choose plays.

They'd been unable to work with Cam earlier in the season to prepare him to call plays at the line of scrimmage earlier in the season due to his injuries.  It seems like they must have worked on that during the Bye late last season, and we finally began seeing it as of Week 14. 

[KB_fan]

With all of our other stars & so many players putting up impressive stats (Cam, Greg, J-No, Kurt Coleman, KK, TD, Luke...) Jonathan Stewart can sometimes get a bit overlooked.

He's in the midst of a really impressive streak that I'd not been aware of. 

Quote

• Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart is on pace for his second 1,000-yard rushing season
• He also has carried the ball at least 20 times in 8 straight games, the NFL’s longest streak – by 6 games
• If Stewart gets 20 carries against Atlanta on Sunday, he’ll have the longest streak since 2007

 

Read all the details at the Observer:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article49067610.html

[KB_fan]

I post a lot of stats each week about Panthers players, and the team as a whole, but how about some stats about our head coach.

Ranking NFL head coaches by strategic decision-making

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/14321399/ranking-nfl-head-coaches-strategic-decision-making

It's an ESPN insider article, so I can't read it all, but there's a good summary of some of the key points at B/R

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2597578-falcons-vs-panthers-full-carolina-game-preview/page/3

Quote

 

Ron Rivera: Best Strategic Coach in the NFL?

It’s hard to really judge a coaches’ performance outside of wins and losses, because tons of work happens behind the scenes.  There’s talent development, weekly game-planning, self-scouting regarding what went right and what went wrong during the games, the team's strategic focus, organization and content of practices and general leadership capabilities.  Deficiencies or strengths in any one area can have a massive impact on a team’s performance, but they’re hard to quantify, as they happen behind closed doors.

The one coaching element that can be quantified is their strategic decisions during the games.  Football Outsiders took a look at all 32 coaches’ in-game decision-making, in terms of fourth-down decision-making, clock management and challenges, and found that in 2015, Ron Rivera has been the NFL's best strategic coach.

Rivera has earned the nickname “Riverboat Ron” because he has a reputation for gambling on fourth down, but Rivera has always insisted he is a “calculated” risk-taker.  The numbers support him—NFL coaches as a breed are far, far too conservative on fourth down, according to Jim Armstrong via Football Outsiders.  A gambler compared to the average NFL coach is actually just playing the numbers correctly, and none have been better this season than Rivera.

This is surprising, because Rivera used to be among the NFL's most conservative coaches—up until 2013, Rivera’s aggressiveness was among the lowest in the NFL.  Since then, he has seen the light, and the Panthers have gone on to win three consecutive division titles.  I don’t believe that’s a coincidence.

Football Outsiders also charted Rivera with no time-management mistakes so far this season, and only one poor challenge.  Put it all together, and you have one of the NFL's best game-day coaches, at least when it comes to making the right strategic decisions.  He’s getting the best out of having weapons such as Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert in the rushing game and making a strong case for another Coach of the Year award.

 

 

[KB_fan]

In addition to updating my gamebook data spreadsheet for the Dallas & New Orleans games, (now finished), I'm also trying to do a third-quarter review of the season to date this evening.

Here's a beginning - looking at points scored / points allowed for each game and for each quarter of the season so far.  I hadn't done the math until now to realize we're averaging 36+ points a game in the last 4 games.  Yikes.  This is a trend our opponents had better hope doesn't keep continuing!

One could perpahs write a caption for this graph as follows:

"You know you're having a great season when 27 points scored against Tennessee looks really lousy!"  LOL.

 

It's interesting to see that our home / away points averages are very similar.

 

[KB_fan]

Here's a look at how our offense has performed by quarter in each game.  Note that point totals include only scores by our offense.  No defensive touchdowns are included.

Our offense could still improve in the 1st quarter - we've scored only 15% of our offensive points in the 1st quarter of games, but otherwise, our offense is pretty balanced.

We've had 6 quarters out of 48 where we've scored 0 points on offense, but we've had 8 quarters where we've scored two or more touchdowns.  And we've had 6 quarters where we've gained over 150 yards.

We've really put on the offensive firepower in many games in the 2nd quarter.  This helps explain why we've had so few games where we're trailing at halftime (only 2 games! at Seattle and at New Orleans).  Even if we've gotten off to a slow start, we've picked it up even before we've had the chance to make half-time adjustments.  I love it.

 

 

[KB_fan]

WOW.  Look at the time of possession in the last 4 games!!

In our most recent 4 games, for 8 out of 16 quarters (50%) we controlled the ball for more than 9 minutes in the quarter.

Compare that with 7 quarters out of 32 quarters (22%) in the first 8 games in which we controlled the ball that long.

[KB_fan]

Our rushing dominance is pretty impressive.  Here's our rushing stats through 12 games:

Here's what it looks like by game.  (I'll post a graph of rushing yds/game shortly.)

[KB_fan]

Here's a graph comparing rushing yards & rushing attempts for each game for Panthers & our opponents.

1) I had forgotten that Tampa out-rushed us in Week 4.

2) LOLOLOL ar Washington.  Their rushing yards barely (14) outpaced their rushing attempts (12).  Talk about rushing futility.

[KB_fan]

Rushing Attempts per game, by player:

Stewie & Cam continue to dominate the rushing game.

Stew has 57% of all carries

Cam has 27%, Tolbert has 10%, Fozzy 2%, and all others (CAP, Brown, Ginn...) 4%