Consensus Listings / Comparitive Rankings of CBs across Big Boards (and projected availability in early rounds)

[KB_fan]

A few weeks ago I compiled consensus listings and comparative rankings for top 20 to 25 DEs (here) and DTs (here),  I also looked at which of these players might be available when we pick in round 1 or round 2, based on a comparison of multiple mock drafts, using all the various boards at Fanspeak.

Now I'm starting that same analysis for CORNERBACKS

I've created a consensus list of the top 23 CBs using 11 big boards at fanspeak's "On the Clock" draft simulator, plus the NFL.com draft rankings.

There's much more to come below, but first a few explanations.

Blue shading of names mean the player appeared in the top 20 of at least 10 of these 12 draft boards.

n/a means the player was not included in the board's top 20.  (In some cases boards did not have a player listed as a CB, but as a Safety, which results in the exclusion of several highly ranked players from some boards).

Under the NFL column on the right, players in red were not in the top 20, but I've included their ranking and grade for reference.

The draft boards used and the date the board was updated.

• FS = Fanspeak  (March 29)
• Comp = Composite (March 22)
• Dftk = Draftek (March 10)
• CBS = CBS (March 22)
• MM = Matt Miller (March 21)
• WF = Walter Football  (March 17)
• JR = Jeff Risdon (March 28)
• WTFP = With the First Pick (March 26)
• KC = Kyle Crabbs NDT Scouting (March 28)
• Opt = Optimum Scouting (March 30)
• ARW = Arrowhead (April 4)
• NFL = NFL.com draft tracker (April 3)

 

[KB_fan]

So, here's the consensus list, sorted in order of the average ranking, best to worst:

Boards shows how many of the 12 big boards included this player in their top 20 players.

The average ranking is the average of each big boards ranking of this player IF THEY WERE IN THE TOP 20.  (If a board has a player listed outside the top 20, with a low ranking, that low ranking is not included in the average... thus the rankings may be skewed a bit high)

Min is the best ranking received by a player.    Median is the midpoint of all the rankings (different than an average, less skewed by extreme highs or lows).  Max is the worst ranking received by a player.

Deviation shows the difference from best to worst rankings.  Those with the closest consensus are highlighted in green.  Those with the greatest extremes between best and worst are highlighted in red.

Tomorrow I will post on potential availability of these players in rounds 1 and 2 based on multiple mock drafts.

 

[KB_fan]

Before I jump into mock drafts and availability by round, I did also check the "Top 50" prospect listings at NFL.com for 4 analysts (Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks, Charles Davis and Lance Zierlein) to see what CBs they include among their Top 50 lists.

You can see those top 50 lists here (click on the various tabs):

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000641197/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2016-nfl-draft

Here's how it shakes out:

They include 5 - 7 CBs in their top 50 rankings.  As you can see, all 4 analysts consider Ramsey and Hargreaves top 10 picks.  After that, there's a drop off and much less consensus.  Three of the 4 rate Apple as worth a round 1 pick,  but after that, the other top players get mostly round 2 rankings.

All 4 analysts agree with the overall consensus as to the top 5 best CBs:  Ramsey & Hargreaves the clear #1 & #2.  They would then generally rank Apple #3, Alexander #4, and Jackson #5.

Artie Burns comes in at #6 for 3 of the 4 analysts, while he is 8th on the broader consensus average ranking.  Kendall Fuller, who is the 6th best CB in the overall averages using the draft boards at fanspeak, doesn't rank in the top 50 for any of the NFL.com analysts.

[stirs]

I think Artie Burns at the end of the second might be a good fit

[KB_fan]

I've now had a chance to review which CBs are taken in round 1 of 20 different mock drafts.  Here are the results.

First, using 11 of the fanspeak boards:

Ramsey & Hargreaves are always GONE - usually in the top 10 - 12.   Jackson shows up as being available some times, but note that several of these mocks are using older draft rankings (3/10, 3/17, 3/21).  I'd not put a lot of weight on his being there.  Alexander and Apple both show up in two of these drafts.

I also looked at 9 other analysts mocks:  the 7 analysts with fairly recent mocks at NFL.com (Daniel Jeremiah, Charles Davis, Bucky Brooks, Lance Zierlein, Ike Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew and Chad Reuter), and then Pete Prisco of CBS and Aaron Wilson of Houston Chronicle (picked just out of curiosity and because their mocks are recent).

In these drafts the top 5 CBs were almost universally gone - especially in the most recent drafts.  3 analysts also had a 6th CB going i the 1st round (Kendall Fuller or Artie Burns). 

Xavien Howard was ALWAYS available in all 20 drafts.  He would seem to be a reach in round 1, as would any CB ranked below Artie Burns in the full list of the top 23 above.

Basically, there COULD be a slim chance that one of the top 5 CBs could fall to us at pick 30 (Jackson or Alexander), but it looks extremely unlikely. (< 25% chance).

Tomorrow I'll see how round 2 and maybe round 3 shakes out for CBs.  I don't think a lot of CBs look to have round 2 grades.  I think maybe only 1 or 2 will go off the board generally in round 2, with a lot more being targeted in round 3.  We'll see....

[KB_fan]

By the way, there's a MASSIVE listing (with links) to pretty much any mock draft that is being published, compiled at SB Nation.  Here's the link:

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2016/2/15/10899032/mock-nfl-draft-database-2016-tendencies-experts

[KB_fan]

Ah, one more table before I call it quits for the night.  Here again is the list of the consensus top 23 CBs including their height & weight, and color coded as to roughly where their ranking would expect them to be picked if picks fairly closely followed ranking order.

[KB_fan]

I did a few 3 round drafts this morning before work to get started on pulling together a prospective round 2 and round 3 availability table for CBs.

What was very funny was that in each of the 4 drafts I did at fanspeak, using fanspeak, composite, draftek and CBS boards, I had 1 or more of the top 5 corners falling to me in round 1 each draft, whereas they didn't last night!

• In the fanspeak mock, Mackensie Alexander was still on the board and was BPA when we picked in round 1.
• In the composite mock, 2 of the top CBs were available: Vernon Hargreaves was still on the board and was BPA at our pick.  William Jackson was also still on the board.
• In the draftek mock, Alexander was on the board and was BPA
• In the CBS mock, BOTH Jackson & Apple were on the board, (but WR L.Treadwell was there too, so he was BPA and I picked him.)

Maybe CBs are more popular picks at night than in the morning?!?!?  LOL.

It just shows how inexact science this process is.  I'll keep at it though to try and get at least a rough breakdown of patterns in picking players, and who might be there when we pick in rounds 1 - 3.  Will post tables for rounds 2 & 3.

[KB_fan]

One observation that I can make from the 4 mock drafts I did this morning:

Overall about 12 - 14 CBs are being picked in rounds 1 - 3.

CBs with what I consider round 3  or even round 4 grades and rankings are going in round 2 since there aren't a lot of true round 2 quality CBs according to the grades & rankings - there's a bit of a gap between the top 5 and the next 8 - 10.

Fuller details tonight.

[C47]

We won't take Apple even if he's there. Take that to the bank. 

[KB_fan]

Here's what potential CB availability looks like with our pick (#62 overall) in round 2:

As I commented above, something changed between the mock drafts I did 2 days ago and yesterday.  All of a sudden some of the top 5 CBs in round 1 were still on the board for our pick at #30.  In 7 of the 8 drafts I did yesterday, I could have snagged Hargreaves twice, Jackson 4 times, Alexander 3 times and Apple twice.   In 4 of the drafts, Hargreaves or Alexander were BPA on the board for round 1, so I picked them (though personally I'm not a big fan of Alexander)....  In three other drafts, there were even better players showing up as BPA (Elliott, Treadwell), so even though a top 5 CB was on the board, I did not pick them.

After the consensus top 5 CBs, there are 3 more CBs that were almost always picked in round 2 before our pick:  Kendall Fuller, Xavien Howard & Artie Burns.   We probably can't count strongly on any of them being there at #62 if we were interested in them. 

Zach Sanchez, Jalen Mills (who is listed as a safety on a lot of boards), and Redmond were the 3 other CBs who got the most attention in round 2, then Russell, Robinson & Harlan Miller.    In 5 of the 8 mocks at least one of Howard, Burns, or Sanchez was available at our pick in round 2.  

I like Harlan Miller a lot, but much prefer him in round 3 or 4, and some mocks have him available to us in those rounds....

I'll post the round 3 potential draft availability in the following comment.

[KB_fan]

By round 3, there was not a lot of interest in CBs.  In the 8 mocks I did, the picks were as follows:

• Round 1:  33 picks  (avg = 4 CBs per mock draft)
• Round 2: 47 picks (avg = 6 CBs per mock draft)
• Round 3: 21 picks (average 2.7 CBs per mock draft)

As a result, some of the CBs who had some potential availability in round 2, often still had some availability in round 3:

I think round 3 or round 4 could be the sweet spot to pick a CB - Harlan Miller, Cyrus Jones, Maurice Canady, Deiondre' Hall all look like they could be available for us in round 3 - or possibly even round 4.

After doing these tables for potential CB availability in rounds 1 - 3, I realized it might be more useful if I actually included at what pick the players are taken, as it would give an indication if trading up a few spots would allow us to grab a player we're very interested in....   I'll post that below.

 

[KB_fan]

OK.... here's my final table for CBs, but one which I hope will be particulary helpful & interesting.  Now that I've figured out how to do this / format this, I will try to do it for all the most interesting positions (DE, DT, WR, S, RB).

Using 6 different boards at Fanspeak, I did 6 more mock drafts with a focus on CBs last night & this a.m. and recorded at what pick all of the top 25 CBs were taken.  (Note 2 additional CBs were added to this list:  Jonathan Jones & Daryl Worley who did not make the initial top 23 consensus ranking, but were showing up in the mocks last night,)

Boards used: fanspeak, composite, draftek, CBS, Matt Miller, and a brand new board "Inside the Pylon"

"Avg Rank" on the left was the overall consensus ranking among 12 big boards as posted above.  But look at "Avg Pick" in the section on the right.  That showed at what average position the player was drafted at.  For many players there's a big difference. For example:  a player like Artie Burns, on average ranked #82 on the big boards, but on average picked a full round higher at #45...

The table below is sorted in order by AVERAGE PICK in these 6 mock drafts:

This format hopefully makes it easy to see what % chance the player is available at our picks in each round.  In 4 of these 6 drafts, CBs were BPA on the boards in at least one round when I picked.  Twice I picked Harlan Miller (once in round 4, once in round 5 - wouldn't THAT be nice!).  Twice I picked Deiondre Hall (round 4).  And once in round 7 Kevon Seymour was BPA so I picked him even though I'd already picked Hall earlier.

Based on the above analysis, the CBs I like who it looks we could have decent opportunities to pick:

William Jackson in round 1.... but that might be a bit of a reach, it's likely that other players would be BPA above him.  (Also Fuller & Howard look like they would be there at #30 if we are keen on either...)

Round 2:  I don't really think based on this analysis that CBs repesent a likely good value in round 2.  The true "round 2" CBs (Fuller, Burns, Howard) generally look like they'll all be gone when we pick at #62. For many of the CBs that do look to be most available in round 2 (Miller, C Jones, Robinson, Murray, White, Hall), most are also very often available to us in round 3, and sometimes even round 4.  So picking a CB in round 2 could be a reach.  CBs were not usually BPA on the boards at our pick in round 2.  Usually I was able to pick players like Hunter Henry, Derrick Henry, Su'a Cravens, Chris Jones....

Round 3:  This really looks to be a sweet spot for us for picking a CB if these mocks are at all accurate.

I like Harlan Miller, Cyrus Jones, and Deiondre Hall among those CBs I've read about...  In all 6 drafts at least one of these was available in round 3 AND round 4.

 

I'd REALLY welcome feedback on the layout / usefulness of this table.  If people like it, I'd be willing to do the same analysis for other positions.  Thanks.  If you have suggestions for improvement, I'd love to hear them,