Week 1: Panthers Loss to Denver - Post-game stats & analysis

[KB_fan]

On Thursday I started a thread with some pre-game and in-game stats & Tweets:

By the end of the game I was utterly fried, and it's taken me 2 days to calm down following the head-hunting against Cam which kind of became the primary post-game story line for so many of us. 

Now that rational thought has returned, I'm working to start gathering links to game analysis & commentary, as well as working on my own gamebook data spreadsheet and analysis.   I'll be updating this thread over the next 2 or 3 days with any good links, tweets, analysis that I find, as well as my own tables and analysis.

I invite any Huddler to chime in and post good game-analysis links and excerpts here.

One request:  Please keep THIS thread focused on player performance and game stats, etc.  Articles about the head-hunting issue can be posted elsewhere in one of the many many threads on that topic.   Thanks.

[The Lobo]

You do a great service to this site. Thanks

[KB_fan]

Via Panthers.com

What We Learned: Panthers at Denver

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/What-We-Learned-Panthers-at-Broncos/9d3a1a8e-5510-49b8-b401-a1ed1735b041

The article focuses on 5 broad takeaways from the game:

1. Run defense has work to do:

2. Cornerback plan unveiled:

3. Benjamin makes immediate impact:

4. Lee everything Panthers hoped he’d be:

5. Newton sets more records:

 

Here's the discussion of our issues on Run Defense, as that clearly was one of the most troubling issues of the night:

Quote

 

1. Run defense has work to do: The Panthers defense has prided itself on stopping the run under Ron Rivera, and their performance in that area against the Broncos in Week 1 disappointed the head coach.

Led by running back C.J. Anderson’s 92 yards on 20 carries, Denver rushed for 148 yards. Rivera was particularly peeved with the two longest runs – a 28-yarder from Anderson and a 28-yard touchdown run from fullback Andy Janovich.

“We didn’t shut down their running game. They ran the ball well,” Rivera said. “There’s some things that we’ve got to get corrected on the defensive side of the football, and I know our guys on the defense will take it very personal.”

Denver’s consistent success on the ground kept Carolina off balance and allowed first-time starting quarterback Trevor Siemian to find a groove with manageable down and distance situations.

"Now they can use their entire arsenal. They can go bootleg; they can go hard play action; they can go into spread and bring them back in, but you still have that threat of run," Rivera said.

Added linebacker Thomas Davis: "They leaned heavy on the run game. As a defense, we have to do a better job of defending the run."

 

I'll be posting some analysis looking in more detail at Denver's running plays and our defensive failures within the next 1 - 2 days.

[KB_fan]

Joe Person at the Observer has an interesting article with a play by play recap of the Panthers' heartbreaking final drive of the game.  It's pretty amazing how much drama there was in those final 3 minutes...

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article101111087.html

Here are the first 5 plays:

 

Quote

 

The drive had a little of everything:

▪  A penalty involving one of the league’s officiating points of emphasis;

▪  More struggles for Carolina right tackle Mike Remmers against the Broncos’ pass rush;

▪  The Darian Stewart hit that rocked Newton and brought intense scrutiny to the NFL’s concussion protocol;

▪  And, ultimately heartbreak for the visitors in the Super Bowl rematch.

The Panthers took over in good field position after a short punt by Broncos rookie Riley Dixon. Here’s what followed:

First and 10, Carolina 40, 3:06 left: Flags fly as Broncos edge rusher Von Miller and/or wideout Kelvin Benjamin jump the gun. Instead, the false start is on center Ryan Kalil. The Pro Bowler quickly turned his head in what the officials considered an effort to simulate the snap, one of their points of emphasis.

First and 15, Carolina 35, 3:06: The Broncos sack Newton on one of their green dog blitzes, which were critical to Denver’s success in Super Bowl 50. Linebackers Todd Davis and DeMarcus Ware take down Newton.

Second and 20, Carolina 30, 2:23: Miller beats Remmers with a speed rush and flushes Newton to his left. Cornerback Bradley Roby drills Newton in the head – one of at least four helmet shots he absorbed in the game – but Newton stays on his feet and goes out of bounds for a short gain.

Third and 15, Carolina 35, 2:15: In what looked like a replay of the previous play and his second Super Bowl strip-sack, Miller again blows past Remmers to sack Newton for a loss of 6.

It’s the only sack for the Super Bowl MVP, who had a lot of different looks thrown at him by offensive coordinator Mike Shula. The Broncos, who had seven sacks in Super Bowl 50, finished with three Thursday, including two on the final drive.

“I thought the execution of the game plan was pretty doggone good,” Panthers coach Ron Rivera said. “The hard part is whenever you get to a certain situation, you do become one-dimensional and they got an opportunity to pin their ears back a couple times.”

Fourth and 21, Carolina 29, 2:00: The 6-5 Benjamin and 6-4 Devin Funchess both line up to the right. Benjamin runs a 22-yard route and Newton tries to thread the ball between defenders. It’s incomplete, but Chris Harris Jr. had put his hand on Benjamin’s facemask early in the pattern. Five yards and an automatic first down. Drive alive.

 

 

 

[TapRackCap]

A short breakdown of some of the CJ Anderson runs.

 

[KB_fan]

Since there may be folks who don't know their way around the post-game resources online at Panthers.com, here are some of the key links:

The 2016 week 1 home page:  http://www.panthers.com/schedule/game/2016/regular1/?icampaign=car_game_strip_hd

Includes:

 

1) The gamebook with all the game stats is here: 

http://www.panthers.com/assets/docs/2016/160908_car@den_gamebook.pdf

 

2) the game recap:

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/Recap-Broncos-21-Panthers-20/db9fd234-bd3a-4987-b908-15db0d8c6fde

includes a nice summary of the highlights of the 1st half offense:
 

Quote

 

Carolina was in control at halftime.

Benjamin’s 14-yard touchdown catch gave the Panthers a 7-0 lead early, and after the Broncos tied it with a 28-yard touchdown run by fullback Andy Janovich, Carolina marched 89 yards in 18 plays, eventually reaching the end zone with a 2-yard run by Newton in the second quarter.

Newton was brilliant on the drive, completing all four of his third-down passes, and his touchdown run provided a historic capper that simultaneously broke a pair of NFL records held by Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young. Newton now has 44 career rushing touchdowns - most ever by a quarterback - and an all-time best 32 games with both a passing and a rushing touchdown.

An efficient two-minute drill allowed the Panthers to extend the lead to 17-7, as Gano drilled a 44-yard field goal three seconds before halftime.

 

 

3) Video Highlights:

http://www.panthers.com/media-vault/videos/Highlights-Panthers-at-Broncos/e0031e1e-2f13-43b4-844d-b8ab6d46c5da

 

4) Panthers.com Photo gallery

http://www.panthers.com/media-vault/photo-gallery/Photos-Panthers-at-Broncos/18e1f1b1-de83-44a5-84da-ad05e132a242

 

 

[KB_fan]

Snap Counts courtesy of Bill Voth and Black & Blue Review:

http://blackandbluereview.com/snap-counts-week-1-panthers-broncos/

On offense, here are the TE / RB / WR snaps:

Kelvin Benjamin	WR	52	71%
Ted Ginn	WR	46	63%	7	29%
Jonathan Stewart	RB	43	59%
Philly Brown	WR	39	53%
Devin Funchess	WR	38	52%
Ed Dickson	TE	30	41%	16	67%
Mike Tolbert	FB	28	38%	4	17%
Fozzy Whittaker	RB	13	18%	12	50%
Scott Simonson	TE	2	3%

Here are Bill's notes for offense:

• About that 30-35 range Ron Rivera was hoping for Kelvin Benjamin …

• Ted Ginn Jr. played 46 snaps but wasn’t targeted until the Panthers’ final play from scrimmage.

• Ginn, Philly Brown and Devin Funchess saw seven total targets in 123 combined snaps. Benjamin and Greg Olsen were targeted 21 times in 125 snaps.

• The Panthers opened with a 3-TE set, but then ran fewer 2-TE sets (40 percent) than they usually do (around 55 percent).

 

 

As for Defense:

Coleman, Kuechly, Boston & Davis played 100% of snaps on defense.   Here are the other players on defense (I've not included those who only played on ST)

James Bradberry	CB	55	95%	3	12%
Bené Benwikere	CB	55	95%	3	12%
Kawann Short	DT	41	71%	3	8%
Kony Ealy	DE	40	69%	2	12%
Star Lotulelei	DT	38	66%	3	12%
Robert McClain	CB	37	64%	3	12%
Charles Johnson	DE	37	64%	2	8%
Vernon Butler	DT	23	40%	1	4%
Ryan Delaire	DE	21	36%	1	4%
Mario Addison	DE	19	33%	10	42%
Paul Soliai	DT	19	33%
Shaq Thompson	LB	18	31%	6	25%
A.J. Klein	LB	3	5%	16	67%

Here are Voth's notes:

• And that’s why Rivera played coy all week about his CBs. Daryl Worley was an assumed starter, but the rookie didn’t play a down on defense. James Bradberry and Bené Benwikere patrolled the outside while Robert McClain was the nickel.

• Kony Ealy momentarily kept the eventual game-winning off the board with a PBU, but that was his only stat in 40 snaps.

• Shaq Thompson’s playing time will continue to be predicated on matchups, but it’s a shame the Panthers could only find 18 plays for him.

[KB_fan]

With those snap counts posted above, perhaps here is a good place to post the first table from my own original gamebook analysis.  I've created a template that will allow me to post a summary of all receiving stats each week, including target %, competion %, etc...

I'll be able to post weekly stats and running season totals.

Panthers Week 1:  At Denver,  Receiving Stats

Note: Brenton Bersin, Damiere Byrd and CAP were all inactive.

In the future, I may find a way to include snap counts in this table as well so that targets and receptions can be put in the context of snaps played...

Note:  "Big Plays" are defined as any pass completion of 25 yards or longer.   Panthers longest completion on the night was only 18 yards.

[KB_fan]

PFF summary article / top grades:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-car-den-grades-broncos-defense-limits-cam-newton-in-second-half-of-win/

Some excerpts:

 

They give a good breakdown of Cam's performance in context (pressure v. no pressure, blitzing or not...)
 

Quote

 

Quarterback grade: Cam Newton, 78.9

Cam Newton is still Superman, but Denver does a good job of containing him

In the first half we saw the Cam Newton that was the MVP award winner in 2015. In the second half it was a bit of a different story. Because the Broncos secondary is so stout in man coverage, they are far more susceptible to scores via big plays than sustained short passing, and that’s what we saw Newton struggle with in the final two quarters. His adjusted completion percentage was only 66.6 percent and he didn’t complete a pass targeted over 20 yards downfield all day.

 

 

Quote

 

Top offensive grades:

TE Greg Olsen, 83.3

C Ryan Kalil, 79.9

RG Trai Turner, 75.5

LT Michael Oher, 75.3

RB Jonathan Stewart, 72.6

 

Quote

 

Top defensive grades:

LB Shaq Thompson, 83.2

LB Luke Kuechley, 80.3

CB Bene Benwikere, 79.5

S Tre Boston, 73.0

DE Charles Johnson, 71.4

 

 

There's more commentary at the link, including some notes about Kelvin Benjamin's return, and our Secondary's vulnerability.... (And of course grades & commentary for Denver)

 

Also, this was an interesting tweet from PFF

 

[KB_fan]

It's getting late here, so for tonight, I'm just going to post a few more tweets I noted following the game.   Much more to follow in the coming days...

Matt Harmon tweeted out some interesting NextGen stats with WR Routes:

 

 

[KB_fan]

More from Matt Harmon:

 

 

[KB_fan]

 

[KB_fan]

The folks at Pro Football Reference were live-tweeting during the game, and even answering fan's research questions.

Here's one tweet from them that was heart-breaking:   So close.... Coulda Shoulda won....

 

[KB_fan]

I can't totally disregard the head shots to Cam issue, even in a stats thread, because there were some interesting tweets with relevant stats that appeared after the game: