Week 3 - Panthers Loss to Minnesota - misc stats & analysis

[KB_fan]

Here is a quick overview of all Panthers offensive drives so far this season:

Note 1:  Starting field position is stated in terms of 100 yards.  anything less than 50 is in Panthers territory, anything above 50 is in opponents' territory.   E.G. Subtracting from 100:  A starting position of "65" would be the opponent's 35 yard line.

Note 2:  I've considered the Vikings' Safety a "Turnover" in that it resulted in points for the Vikings.  I know technically a safety is not a turnover.

With that information charted, we can now look at field position and drive outcome - see below.

 

[KB_fan]

Here's what the drive outcome looks like (scoring % / TO %) based on different starting field position for 2016 to date.

I'll try to compare this to 2015 Panthers and maybe NFL averages later tonight or tomorrow, and I'll also see if I can find a way to graph it since many prefer a visual image to tables with numbers.

 

The questions I want to track with this table in comparison to prior seasons / NFL averages:

1) are we starting higher % of drives inside our 20 this season?

2) how do our scoring rates by field position category compare to prior seasons / NFL? 

3) how do our turnover rates by field position category compare to prior seasons / NFL?

 

[KB_fan]

The Observer did some film analysis breaking down all the sacks & hits on Cam and has a decent article, assigning some blame:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article104455081.html

Here's an excerpt:

An Observer film analysis showed all five offensive linemen gave up sacks or hits on Newton, who exacerbated matters by holding the ball too long on at least four of those plays.

Left tackle Michael Oher allowed three sacks, including one in the fourth quarter that came on a play after Oher was called for holding.

But it was an across-the-board failure that resulted in Newton getting sacked the second-most times in his career. The reigning league MVP was sacked nine times in a 45-21 loss to Philadelphia two years ago.

Receivers were too slow in some of their longer routes and failed to gain separation from the Vikings’ defensive backs. Running back Fozzy Whittaker blew a blocking assignment, allowing safety Harrison Smith to come free on a blitz.

And offensive coordinator Mike Shula called too many vertical passes -- the slow-developing plays that Minnesota linebacker Chad Greenway said gave Vikings defenders time to go after Newton in the pocket.

It all added up to an ugly offensive performance in the 22-10 loss, the Panthers’ first at home since Nov. 16, 2014.

“We’ve just got to stay focused, go back to the drawing board and get back to work,” Oher said. “It’s a long season ahead of us. Everything that happened, we can get better from.”

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article104455081.html#storylink=cpy

[KB_fan]

5 hours ago, The_Rainmaker said:

I think you should do statistics about formation we line up and success we have with it on 3rd downs and red zone. Specifically 2 TE set and power/zone runs with J-Stew 

Good question.  I'll keep this in mind.  Won't have time this week, but I'll see about next week.  If any Huddler wants to help and chip in with this, feel free!

And it would be helpful if anyone knows of a site / resource that tracks & charts play formations.  It would be very time consuming for me to do that kind of play by play charting... if someone can point me to someone else who is already doing this, I'd be grateful

[KB_fan]

Here's another very good excerpt from that film analysis article at the Observer I quoted above:

I'm hoping to look more deeply at some of the down & distance stats  and play outcome tomorrow or Thursday

Quote

 

Shula and Kalil said penalties and other mistakes put the Panthers in obvious passing situations.

Three of the fourth-quarter sacks came on first-and-19, third-and-20 and third-and-9.

“We didn’t do a good enough job staying ahead of the chains and just played undisciplined football,” Kalil said. “That’s what beat us offensively.”

 

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article104455081.html#storylink=cpy

[KB_fan]

Good "Inside the Gamebook" article from Jaxon at C-S-R.  A very nice table breaking down lots of the key stats by half, for both the Panthers & Vikings.

http://www.derp/2016/9/27/13079006/vikings-22-panthers-10-inside-the-game-book

Here's a portion:

This is truly a tale of two halves so I decided to break the data down by half. The Panthers dominated the first half but had only a 2 point lead to show for it.

Week 3

	Panthers			Vikings
	1st Half	2nd Half	Total	1st Half	2nd Half	Total
Total yds	205	165	370	34	195	229
3rd Down %	3/8 (38%)	3/8 (38%)	6/16 (38%)	1/6 (17%)	2/6 (33%)	3/12 (25%)
Red Zone %	1/1 (100%)	0/0 (0%)	1/1 (100%)	0/0 (0%)	0/2 (0%)	1/3 (33%)
Rush Yds	56	49	105	26	32	58
Yds/Rush	3.3	4.5	3.8	3.3	2.0	2.4
Pass Yds	170	95	265	26	145	171
Yds/Pass	8.9	5.6	7.6	2.4	8.5	6.1
TOP			34:52:00			25:08:00
Sacks	2	0	2	1	7	8

[KB_fan]

Another excellent analysis by Bill Voth at BBR:

http://blackandbluereview.com/how-panthers-lost-to-vikings-in-first-half/

For some reason I'm not able to copy any quotes from any BBR articles today, so take my word and go read it.

 

[KB_fan]

Thomas Davis' weekly commentary

http://www.espncharlotte.net/podcast/thomas-davis-4/

- Talks about poor execution

- poor focus

- calls out the defense for not forcing any turnovers.  Says that turnovers are something they pride themselves in.  They failed this week.

- challenge for the defense when passers do short drops / quick passes

and more...

[TheSpecialJuan]

Carolina Panthers (1-2) struggling in new role as the hunted

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- As convenient as it would be to categorize Carolina's 22-10 loss to Minnesota as simply a bad day at the office, that would be a mistake. The Panthers now have dropped as many games as they lost all of last season (playoffs included) and they struggled to put away a flawed San Francisco group in their lone win so far. This isn't solely about a team falling short in a revealing early-season game. It's about the Panthers trying to figure out who they're going to be less than a year after completing the most impressive campaign in franchise history.

The scary part about what happened inside Bank of America Stadium isn't that Carolina lost at home for the first time since Nov. 16. 2014. It's that Minnesota beat the home team with a formula that has worked so well for the Panthers in the past. The Vikings were the team that didn't flinch in the face of adversity, especially not when Carolina rolled out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter. Minnesota clearly believed in its game plan and it aided this team when it mattered most.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000710938/article/carolina-panthers-12-struggling-in-new-role-as-the-hunted

[KB_fan]

Some fun stats in this latest article at Panthers Wire.  I hadn't seen the tweet / stat about the Panthers record and sacks.

http://pantherswire.usatoday.com/2016/09/27/5-odd-stats-from-the-panthers-week-3-loss-to-vikings/

1. A sad sack party

It should come as no shock that the Panthers’ record when Cam Newton is under intense pass-rush pressure is less than impressive. Coming into the game they were 0-5 when Newton is sacked six or more times and throws two or more interceptions, per NFL research:

In the end Minnesota tallied eight sacks and 12 quarterback hits on Sunday. Newton was rattled and some of them were his own fault. He also made a number of questionable throws and was picked off three times.

The right side of the line was relatively strong but Michael Oher’s pass protection on the blindside was a particularly sore point.

 

Another stat I found interesting:

4. A historic pass rush

Last week we saw the Panthers offense approach several franchise records. This week the Vikings defense did the same. Minnesota’s eight sacks tied their third highest mark for a road game ever:

The Vikings have been around since 1961 and have fielded some of the best defenses in league history, so that’s saying something.

 

And yet another stat that surprised me:

5. A bad day for the MVP

How bad was Newton, exactly? Apparently his final 47.6 quarterback rating was the fourth-lowest of his career:

[pstall]

8 hours ago, The_Rainmaker said:

I think you should do statistics about formation we line up and success we have with it on 3rd downs and red zone. Specifically 2 TE set and power/zone runs with J-Stew 

This is what I was hoping for in my replay thread. 

I think we have some formations that no longer fool a good defense. 

Also as an aside.  Since field position is so glaring here, this is where Ron and co need to be creative.  I know this will be blasphemous but pooch kick. Pin the other guy deep when the right time happens.

 

[pstall]

18 minutes ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

Carolina Panthers (1-2) struggling in new role as the hunted

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- As convenient as it would be to categorize Carolina's 22-10 loss to Minnesota as simply a bad day at the office, that would be a mistake. The Panthers now have dropped as many games as they lost all of last season (playoffs included) and they struggled to put away a flawed San Francisco group in their lone win so far. This isn't solely about a team falling short in a revealing early-season game. It's about the Panthers trying to figure out who they're going to be less than a year after completing the most impressive campaign in franchise history.

The scary part about what happened inside Bank of America Stadium isn't that Carolina lost at home for the first time since Nov. 16. 2014. It's that Minnesota beat the home team with a formula that has worked so well for the Panthers in the past. The Vikings were the team that didn't flinch in the face of adversity, especially not when Carolina rolled out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter. Minnesota clearly believed in its game plan and it aided this team when it mattered most.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000710938/article/carolina-panthers-12-struggling-in-new-role-as-the-hunted

Twice already we let a team come back from double digits.  

Alec Baldwin would not share coffee with this team at the moment.

[TheSpecialJuan]

40 minutes ago, pstall said:

Twice already we let a team come back from double digits.  

Alec Baldwin would not share coffee with this team at the moment.

Concerning. 

[Jimmy]

Fozzy was in for 45% of the offensive snaps and had twice as many targets and 5-times as many receptions as our #1 & #2 WRs

Good for Fozzy but uggghh