Shaka Shows: Speed Scores of Running Backs(OC)

[shaka]

I was reading about the draft over on reddit when I stumbled upon this topic.  It mentions the speed scores of the RBs in the draft. 

 

Speed score is a metric used by football outsiders and is described as follows:  "Speed Score: Fully introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2008 by Bill Barnwell, a system for projecting the success of college running backs entering the NFL. Combines a player's weight with his 40-yard dash time from the NFL scouting combine, thus accounting for the fact that a larger back is more likely to be a good NFL player than a small back with the same speed. Speed Scores generally range from 80 to 120, with 100 as the average. Formula is (weight*200) / (40-time^4)."

 

So I'm thinking cool, numbers.  I wonder how they stack up against some more recognizable names and if there's any power to this metric.  So I made this: 

 

The metric was created with 100 being the average score.  The lines are broken up by 20 pound segments, starting at 180 and ending at 260.  It may not have any predictive power and honestly I don't care enough to find out.  There are some great players with average scores in Marshawn Lynch and Le'veon Bell.  So is it that indicative of success at the next level?  Eh...But it can be used to draw some parallels to NFL players with actual history.  Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette scored very similarly as did DeAngelo Williams and Dalvin Cook.  Does it mean you're getting DeAngelo Williams if you draft Dalvin Cook?  Don't be silly.  This is just a metric that takes into account a players weight with their 40 time. 

There's so many other variables available to evaluate a prospect, this exercise is almost pointless.  But applying your knowledge about the prospect along with some of the other combine drills can help form a more in depth opinion on a player.  Is it safe to say Dalvin is the next DeAngelo Williams?  Nah.  But it is safer to say that Dalvin is a shiftier, more agile player with a similar speed to DeAngelo Williams.  Hey that sounds like a pretty dang good prospect. 

Leonard Fournette draws similar scores to Derrick Henry, Brandon Jacobs, Adrian Peterson and (yup) Johnathan Stewart.  Now I'm getting a better idea of the power Leonard Fournette can bring.  Now don't let me feed you my opinion, you can come up with your own.  But the most physically intimidating and powerful backfield in the NFL that I can think of right now?  How about Cam Newton, Johnathan Stewart and Leonard Fournette.  My goodness, talk about punishment and power.   

 

Helpful?  Hopefully.  Interesting?  Possibly.  Only produced because it's the offseason and I'm hoping it will facilitate some discussion?  Definitely.  If there's enough of a response I can expand this to include other running backs in the draft or other positions.  And happy combine all, at least we have something to talk about again!

 

[Saca312]

Nice info. I'm sure @KB_fan would like looking at this.

[Saca312]

So would it be reasonable to conclude - in your opinion - that Fournette is arguably the best guy in the draft as far as fitting our system?

[shaka]

7 hours ago, Saca312 said:

So would it be reasonable to conclude - in your opinion - that Fournette is arguably the best guy in the draft as far as fitting our system?

Not necessarily in our current system.  I'm not an X's and O's guy but Dalvin Cook or Christian McCaffery would be better in our current system.  Read-option, zone read type runs seem to better suit their style.  Starting formations with McCaffery in the slot with Stewart or CAP in the backfield would be a serious wrinkle for defenses to worry about.  Or you can put the triple option back on the table with Stewart/CAP as the dive read, Cam with the keep and McCaffery as the pitch man.  Personally I think the option should NOT be at the front and center of the offense.  I think it should be run less than 5 times a game, including read-option passes.  Anyway, Cook and McCaffery have better vision and can be utilized in the passing game more than Fournette.  However, if we're looking for an heir to Stewart I don't like McCaffery in the first, I think he's better as a Swiss army knife than a full feature back.  Cook has apparently had off the field issues so the chances of the Panther's drafting him are slim. 

 

If we were to tweak our system to be more power based, Fournette, if available at 8 is THE guy.  Defenses are adjusting to the current state of the game by getting smaller and faster.  The Falcons are a good example of this.  Bring in a true fullback, run more traditional power, smash mouth football.  Fournette is at his best with room to run and a fullback he can trust to make the right reads for him.  I just watched some of his tape again, mainly Alabama, Mississippi State and Arkansas.  I like what I see.  He's great in short yardage situations, he's an explosive/violent runner when given space and decent in pass protection.  He's good for a few receptions a game but isn't as natural as Cook or McCaffery. 

 

If it were up to me, I'd pick up Kyle Juszczyk in free agency, draft Leonard Fournette and change the offense to include a little more I-formation and a little less read option. 

Look at how the Seahawks used a fullback in the past (2014), mainly the stuff after the heading Strong Lead

http://www.fieldgulls.com/football-breakdowns/2014/11/14/7216865/marshawn-lynch-seahawks-chiefs-nfl

Keep the same philosophy passing wise but with the run game to support it.  Give him 15+ carries a game, open up play action and still allow us to take shots deep.  Become unstoppable in short yardage situations.

[Saca312]

Yeah agreeable. If we retained our read option, then cook would be our guy.

However, Rivera's comments alluded towards an offense based on the power downhill run, so based on that Fournette would be the best right?

But yeah. Underrated post, and I'm surprised this hasn't gotten much discussion. I like the trends.