The Key to the Draft for Carolina

[MHS831]

The decision to move up or sit at 8 or move back etc.  has not been made yet.  We are holding onto some cap room for a reason---and we are not spending it---because we have no idea how this thing will unfold.  I doubt Carolina moves up before the draft begins--and that depends on a few things:

1. How do the Panthers feel about Lance, Fields, and Jones?  Personally, I think there are markers that a player must pass in the draft before Carolina makes a move--or not.  More on that in a tick.

2. Have the Panthers decided to stay in the Watson hunt even if it takes months?  If so, does that impact their moves?  I mean, if you still want Watson, trading up is stupid. 

Here is the deal--watch ATLANTA.  We know the Jags, Jets, and Niners are going QB.  The other 3 teams are all in for a QB, but Atlanta has a QB and they have other needs--especially defense. Verge seems to think that the Niners like Jones--and if they take him at #3, it gets interesting. 

Now hometown boy Fields is on the board.  Do you take him?  There is a lot to like about him and a lot scares you about him.  Do they risk blowing that pick when they already have a QB that they are paying tons for?  If I am the GM, I take Sewell or trade back.  I might even trade back hoping to land a top T.  However, if they decide to fill some holes for Ryan, a LT is the most important pick they can make--so they make it.  I think that is what they do.

So if the Falcons pass on a QB and take Sewell, the Bengals may then be willing to trade out--because it is widely believed that they want Sewell.  However, some have Slater higher than Sewell (I do not) and he could be the pick at #5. 

The Dolphins have committed to Tua at #6, and they seem to like the fact that they keep getting first rounders to move a few spots.  However, at this point, if you like both Lance and Fields equally, you sit.  Watch Denver--they will be on the phones like a New Delhi Telemarketer--so if you want Fields but not Lance--you call Miami at #6. 

Sitting at #8 works if you think Lance will fall--and it is possible that he falls to #8 because he is a huge risk.

There is one other option:   If we do not like Lance, for example, and he gets past Detroit, what would the rights to draft the last top 4 QB be worth? Denver, Washington, New England, New Orleans, or Tampa Bay may be in the market.  We trade back, acquire some picks, and use them to trade with Jacksonville for Minshew, for example. Everyone knows Denver will take the QB at 9 (if that is where they stay) so the price would be considerable.

I fully expect that the Panthers have plans A-Z and know what to do and when to try to do it.  Watch the Niners, but they are going QB--regardless--and it will be Jones or maybe Fields.  Then watch Atlanta, because if they take Sewell, the remaining teams are not desperate for a QB.  If the Niners take Fields, then you can just sit at 8 because Jones or Lance--maybe both--will be there. 

I am not sure this is coherent or even worth a thread, but there will be an unexpected move on draft day during the first hour or two.

Edited March 28, 2021 by MHS831

[45catfan]

I think Atlanta takes Fields if he's there.  If not, I think they are 50/50 to take Lance.  If they pass up Lance and nobody trades up, we should be good for Trey at #8.  The Patriots kind of worry me though if Lance makes it past the Falcons.  I don't believe the noise about Detroit and Denver.  I'm 99.99% sure they are sticking with their current starters at QB.

Here's a thought...how about if the Falcons fell in love with Wilson and is willing to trade up two spots with the Jets?  The Jets, publicly, say they are committed to Darnold.  If that's true and they absolutely can get the same player at #4 as #2 (49ers are taking a QB) while picking up draft capital, then it's a no-brainer for them.  In that scenario we should have at least one or the other between Fields and Lance...possibly BOTH (if the Mac Jones to SF noise is real is real) assuming no other team trades in front of us.

[MHS831]

13 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

I think Atlanta takes Fields if he's there.  If not, I think they are 50/50 to take Lance.  If they pass up Lance and nobody trades up, we should be good for Trey at #8.  The Patriots kind of worry me though if Lance makes it past the Falcons.  I don't believe the noise about Detroit and Denver.  I'm 99.99% sure they are sticking with their current starters at QB.

Here's a thought...how about if the Falcons fell in love with Wilson and is willing to trade up two spots with the Jets?  The Jets, publicly, say they are committed to Darnold.  If that's true and they absolutely can get the same player at #4 as #2 (49ers are taking a QB) while picking up draft capital, then it's a no-brainer for them.  In that scenario we should have at least one or the other between Fields and Lance...possibly BOTH (if the Mac Jones to SF noise is real is real) assuming no other team trades in front of us.

Man I like the way you think--I agree, but Verge has been right a lot, and she reports that her scout source is confident Jones is who they want.  To me, the math is definitely not working here, but he DOES fit their system and he is fairly ready to start early.  He is very smart and processes quickly---it is possible--and I would never be saying this had Verge not shared that.  Reminds me of Daniel Jones getting drafted early for many of the same reasons.  We marvel at the athletes, but the old school GMs and coaches know that winning Super Bowl QBs are not the best athletes--sports car vs. Mini van--which is better to carry the team on a long journey?  We want the Corvette, but the Astro Van....

I hope you are right about Denver (they are frustrated with Lock, but he needs to be developed--I think the Josh Allen example has to make these GMs think about trashing a young, developing QB.  In my opinion, we still do not know what Darnold has because the team has been in the toilet for 3+ years--they really should trade back and build.  Zach Wilson (and a lot of sites are saying that the Jets have tipped their hand a bit and will take him) may not be worth #2 overall. 

I see red flags all over Fields and Lance--I see their skill sets, but I also see struggles for 2 years before they have fully adapted.  Fields has that Ohio State QB curse--the "Curse of Art Schlichter" (made that up) but has examples of processing.  Lance has all the tools, but his inexperience and the level of competition makes us wonder.  And he could be impeded by the "Curse of Carson Wentz".  I dunno. 

I think the best plan for Carolina is to have a bunch of plans.  I still wonder if we do not trade back and use the picks to go after a player like Minshew or Darnold.  I also think we see the Watson news as a buying opportunity, knowing he may not be available until 2022.  Waiting a month only helps us read the tea leaves more clearly.  If we trade for Watson with conditional picks and keep Bridgewater, would everyone be OK with that?  Maybe draft Mond if he is there later?