Giving Peyton Manning his due

[blackcatgrowl]

I've been reading on bunches of sites that it's now proven Peyton Manning "chokes" in big games. People I work with have said the same thing. The crux of the argument revolves around his 9-9 record in the postseason.

I'm no Colts fan by any means, and I think Peyton milks his status in the NFL a bit too much at times (with commercial after commercial). But, being a student of the game, I have never gotten this impression watching him play in the postseason, and had to see if there was any sort of sound reasoning for saying Manning “chokes”.

So, I pulled all his stats in all his playoff losses, and read the game overview for each. All I had to do was search Peyton Manning on NFL.com, and look at the “Game Logs” tab. Great resource!

But first, let’s agree what the definition of “choke” or “choke up” is (from dictionary.com):

18: choke up

b. - To become too tense or nervous to perform well: Our team began to choke up in the last inning

With that in mind… we can make some judgments on where Manning’s performance cost the Colts games and apply this verbal phrase. Here are the stats and breakdowns with my commentary:

#1. Divisional Playoffs - 1999 - TEN 19 @ IND 16 - 227yrds, 45.2% Comp., 0TD, 1INT,Rating 62.3

His first year in the playoffs. His second year in the league. He brought a team with a 3-13 record the year before to a 13-3 record the next, and a first round bye. The Titans went on to make it to the Superbowl, and lose to the Rams on the last play of the game.

Choke? Yeah, definitely.

#2. Wild Card Weekend - 2000 - IND 17 @ MIA 23 - 194yrds, 53.1% Comp., 1TD, 0INT,Rating 82.0

The Colts took Miami to Overtime. Mike Vanderjagt's misses a 49-yard Field Goal attempt. The Dolphins win on the next possession with a TD. I remember this game, because I started hearing people refer to Vanderjagt as “Vanderjerk” for the missed kick.

A solid game by Manning, not a choke on his part.

#3. Wild Card Weekend - 2002 - IND 0 @ NYJ 41 - 137yrds, 45.2% Comp., 0TD, 2INT,Rating 31.2

Jets were dominant in this game. Chad Pennington was torching the Colt’s secondary. Manning’s worst playoff game by far.

You could say he choked here, but I’d say the entire team was guilty of that getting shutout and all.

#4. AFC Championship Game - 2003 - IND 14 @ NE 24 - 237yrds, 48.9% Comp., 1TD, 4INT,Rating 35.5

Ahh… the 1st Patriots/Colts game. Fairly dominant NE D wins the game. The Patriots go on to win Superbowl 38.

Peyton definitely "chokes" stat wise. But I will throw out there, that since "Spygate", the legitimacy of NE's dominance in the mid-2000's is suspect at the least and tainted at the worst. Still, we'll call this a "choke".

#5. Divisional Playoffs - 2004 - IND 3 @ NE 20 - 238yrds, 64.3% Comp., 0TD, 1INT,Rating 69.3

Ahh… the 2nd Patriots/Colts game. Again, dominant NE D wins the game. The Patriots go on to win Superbowl 39.

Again, Peyton definitely "chokes" stat wise. Again, in the hind-sight of "Spygate", we'll still call this a "choke" too however.

#6. Divisional Playoffs - 2005 - PIT 21 @ IND 18 - 290yrds, 57.9% Comp., 1TD, 0INT,Rating 90.9

You might remember this one. It was a wild game with lots of controversy. First off… it had a critical interception by Troy Polamalu overturned which shouldn’t have been (the league would later admit it was a mistake). Then Jerome Bettis fumbles the ball (he hadn’t fumbled all season) right at the goal line on what was essentially a meaningless attempt to score, Nick Harper scoops up the ball and takes off with only Ben Roethlisberger in the way. He almost fakes Ben out, but Roethlisberger shoe-string tackles him and prevented the TD. The Colts march down to the 28 yard line, and Mike “Vanderjerk”, misses a 46-yard FG attempt to tie the game. Pittsburg goes on to win Superbowl 40.

Manning was solid here. The second of two losses because of “Vanderjerk”. Definitely not a choke on his part.

#7. Divisional Playoffs - 2007 - SD 28 @ IND 24 - 402yrds, 68.8% Comp., 3TD, 2INT,Rating 97.7

- Reading the over-view of the game, it was a back and forth game. Down by 4, there was a decision later in the 4th qtr by Dungy to go for a TD instead of kicking a Field Goal and bringing the game within a point. Manning got Blitzed and threw the ball too short. After a 3 and out and a Punt, the Colts got the ball back with less than 2 mins left. Chargers D prevented the Colts from scoring and won.

A choke? Maybe. His numbers were pretty good for a losing effort though.

#8. Wild Card Weekend - 2008 - IND 17 @ SD 23 - 310yrds, 59.5% Comp., 1TD, 0INT,Rating 90.4

The game was decided in overtime. Chargers won the OT toss. The Colts D was flagged for three penalties on San Diego's final drive. A holding call against Tim Jennings on third-and-8 followed by a personal foul on Clint Session helped the Chargers move deep into Colts territory.

Definitely a solid passing game… not a choke.

#9. Super Bowl 44 - 2009 - NO 31 @ IND 17 - 333yrds, 68% Comp., 1TD, 1INT,Rating 88.5

The Saints came to win. Indy’s D was playing like it was a preseason game. 88.5 passer rating is darn good for a losing effort in my book.

I blame the team more than him. Not a choke in my book.

Ok, so out of 9 losses:

Four of them (#1, #3, #4, #5), the stats and recap tell a tale that he cost the game (yep, I’m including the two "Cheatriots" games)

One of them (#7), his numbers aren’t terrible, but he didn’t seal the deal. (San Diego game #1)

Two of them (#8, #9), the Colts D either cost them game, or had a huge hand in it.

Two of them (#2, #6), the choking was by Mike Vanderjagt... not Manning.

So out of 18 Playoff games… only 4 can you clearly put the loss at Manning’s feet, and one more in which he didn’t finish the game out. That's only 27% of the playoff games he's been in.

The other games he lost to the lack of effort of the team around him. Now… take a look at what he has done in the Playoffs individually:

Most 300+ yard passing games: 8

Most 400+ yard passing games: 2 (tied with Dan Marino)

Most yards passing, 1st half of game: 360 vs. Denver Broncos, 1/9/05

Led the biggest comeback in conference championship game history (18 pts), 1/21/07 vs. New England

One of only four QBs to post a perfect 158.3 rating in a game (Don Meredith, Terry Bradshaw, Dave Krieg)

Most games with 20+ completions: 14

Most games with 30+ completions: 4

Most games with 30+ attempts: 17

Most games with 40+ attempts: 8

Most completions and attempts in a single postseason: 97/153 (2006)

One of only 2 quarterbacks to complete 80% of his passes in two playoff games (tied with Kurt Warner))

Won Superbowl 42

So, after all that... can we answer the question "Does Peyton Manning "choke" in big games"?

73% of the time he's put the Colts in the position to win, or won "big games". And the fact is, with anyone but Peyton Manning, the Colts wouldn’t have played in 18 post-season games in 11 years, and certainly wouldn’t have won a Superbowl.

The answer can only be "No, Peyton Manning kicks ass in the postseason." It seems to me that anyone who tries to argue otherwise is either a bitter Colts fan, or a jealous fan of a team without him.

[X-Clown]

Good work and research on your post, just a few things I'd like to add.

Most of the people who claim that Manning is a choker tend to fall in to three factions.

1) Tom Brady/Patriot fans who hate that anyone is dared mention in the same breath as him

2) Other AFC South fans who are jealous of how many times he has beaten them since that division was formed.

3) Florida fans who have hated him since he played at Tennessee.

Also of note in loss #2 - Indy's defense allowed 209 rushing yards in that game to former slowfooted Panthers running back Lamar Smith on 40 carries. The Dolphins basically were keeping the game out of Jay Fiedler's hands as much as possible and the Colts still couldn't stop it.

In the second game against the Patriots, the Colts defense allowed 210 yards rushing on the ground, and overall, the time of posession for the Pats was 37 minutes. Brady only needed to throw for 144 yards on dink and dunk passes the way the running game and defense was working to win.

Another overlooked aspect of some of the Colts' playoff losses....I guess it's because he is always quiet and unassuming and thus greatly respected, but Marvin Harrison practically disappeared in the postseason. He had 2 TDs in his entire career in the playoffs and those were in one game against Denver in a 2003 wild card game where the Colts won 41-10. Take a look at his average number of catches/yards in postseason versus regular season - it's a huge difference. I know he lost a fumble in the 2003 playoff game, and the one he lost against the Chargers in the home playoff loss really shifted the momentum of the game, and I can't even remember how many drops he had or balls that he tipped to defenders.