Think about what you'd have to trade...

[Jangler]

I really wouldn't put anything past Hurney doing something stupid.

AE anybody??

[Mr. Scot]

Agreed. All we need to do is speak with Portland Trail Blazer fans and how they feel about their team passing up Michael Jordan.

Do you remember the guy who took Todd Blackledge over Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Ken O'Brien and Tony Eason?

Neither do I :sosp:

[Kevin Greene]

Bobby Beathard and Ryan Leaf vacation together.

[Stroupe-a-loop]

Ah, but what if he is that good?

No, we don't know the future, but think about it in terms of the potential consequences of each choice.

If you keep the pick and draft a QB who turns out to be a bust, yes it's bad. It's also something a dozen or more successful GMs have done in the past few decades. It's a setback, but not an insurmountable one.

On the other hand, if you pass up the next Peyton Manning (or a guy who proves to be even better) then you are officially certified as the biggest moron in the history of pro football and, quite deservedly, laughed out of the league. That's the kind of mistake your career never recovers from.

So having a great quarterback prospect available is the football equivalent of Pascal's wager. But I don't think that should reflect poorly on some people for not liking this particular prospect. And in their defense, I think if we take Luck and miss this franchise goes from being a average one with a single terrible year to a team that will be bottom third of the league for several years.

The reason that missing on a quarterback doesn't seem like a big deal is normally because the team remains terrible for another 3, 4, or 5 years and gets another shot at one, and nobody will remember those years except us.

[Grammer]

I really wouldn't put anything past Hurney doing something stupid.

AE anybody??

that pick is the sole reason why, in my mind, hurney needs to be fired

[Stroupe-a-loop]

Agreed. All we need to do is speak with Portland Trail Blazer fans and how they feel about their team passing up Michael Jordan.

So if we do trade the pick, the minimum return I would expect is:

1st

2nd

3rd

1st next year

2nd next year

good player

star player

That is the opening bid for Luck.

That's very true. And the same Trailblazers took Oden with the first overall pick when he was the consensus best player and would have been a lot better off taking Durant.

[MaineManPanther]

I agree it would be foolish. But the analogy is extreme. Obviously any team now would give up a boatload for Peyton Manning, but thats because of hindsight.

Whatever a team would give up to get Peyton right before the 98 draft, is what we should be expected to be compensated if a team wanted Luck.

[Matthias]

So having a great quarterback prospect available is the football equivalent of Pascal's wager. But I don't think that should reflect poorly on some people for not liking this particular prospect. And in their defense, I think if we take Luck and miss this franchise goes from being a average one with a single terrible year to a team that will be bottom third of the league for several years.

Luck is without a doubt a sure prospect. What seperates him from busts of the past is his work ethic and attitude. Ryan Leaf's attitude was jacked up, and his skills probably wasn't all that great. Jamarcus Russell had a great arm, but his work ethic was that of a sloth's. If he changed his position to T or G, he would be a probowler. Luck has outstanding work ethic. He's a smart kid, and is a competitor to the bone. Couple that with his talent, there is no way he is a bust.

[Mr. Scot]

So having a great quarterback prospect available is the football equivalent of Pascal's wager. But I don't think that should reflect poorly on some people for not liking this particular prospect. And in their defense, I think if we take Luck and miss this franchise goes from being a average one with a single terrible year to a team that will be bottom third of the league for several years.

The reason that missing on a quarterback doesn't seem like a big deal is normally because the team remains terrible for another 3, 4, or 5 years and gets another shot at one, and nobody will remember those years except us.

Given the choice between potentially watching a guy bust, or watching him light up the league for the next decade knowing that we could have had him, I'll take option one every single time and wouldn't even second guess myself.

Even if you look only at his potential trade value in the draft, it isn't something to take lightly. Trade him for anything less than the kind of deal that no one in their right mind would offer, and you're blowing it (big time).

[Erik Stall]

I thought it was generally accepted that the AE pick was because he tore up Richardson's Terriers for four years? I'm sure Jerry wanted his FCS boy

[klbishop143]

I really wouldn't put anything past Hurney doing something stupid.

AE anybody??

AE? When I think AE I think camarillo, welker, or woodhead. Undervalued players that were traded and became stars. That could be AE next year after he has some time to learn and get comfortable in his new position, minus the trade part. Hopefully the new coach can bring in an OC that can figure out how to utilize him to his full potential, woodhead-esque.

[Stroupe-a-loop]

Given the choice between potentially watching a guy bust, or watching him light up the league for the next decade knowing that we could have had him, I'll take option one every single time and wouldn't even second guess myself.

Even if you look only at his potential trade value in the draft, it isn't something to take lightly. Trade him for anything less than the kind of deal that no one in their right mind would offer, and you're blowing it (big time).

Right, but I think you would also agree that you shouldn't GM scared. If you don't think Luck is the guy you shouldn't take him because you are afraid of what he might become. You think Luck is the guy, and that's fine. These people don't. And I would trade a player I don't believe in for a guard, a Defensive tackle, and a wide receiver every time.

Alright, let's say we were picking fourth or fifth (could of happened) what would you have given up to get Luck? I'm guessing a lot. So if you wanted to trade him there would be a market. Not the Walker to the Vikes trade, but still something kind of staggering.

And that's all I've really got on the matter. I hope you have a great night and hopefully we get Luck and he is awesome for the next fifteen years so that we don't have to worry about first overall picks anymore (unless we fleece dudes in trades).

[Erik Stall]

If they were picking 4th or 5th I would think the dream of Luck was dead. Even if no team ahead of them wanted a QB, I don't have the assets needed (or if they can even afford to give them up) to trade up to get Luck. I think they go BPA and take a long, hard look at the remaining QBs available.

[Mr. Scot]

Right, but I think you would also agree that you shouldn't GM scared. If you don't think Luck is the guy you shouldn't take him because you are afraid of what he might become. You think Luck is the guy, and that's fine. These people don't. And I would trade a player I don't believe in for a guard, a Defensive tackle, and a wide receiver every time.

Alright, let's say we were picking fourth or fifth (could of happened) what would you have given up to get Luck? I'm guessing a lot. So if you wanted to trade him there would be a market. Not the Walker to the Vikes trade, but still something kind of staggering.

And that's all I've really got on the matter. I hope you have a great night and hopefully we get Luck and he is awesome for the next fifteen years so that we don't have to worry about first overall picks anymore (unless we fleece dudes in trades).

I'm watching the Saints-Falcons game tonight.

For the next several seasons, we'll be continuing to face Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, and Josh Freeman in six games a year.

And that's just in the division, outside we've got the Mannings, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and others.

If I'm going for a Lombardi and I've got to compete against that, I'd much rather do it with Andrew Luck.