QB vs D-line: Bust vs Studs in Recent NFL Drafts

[theyhateme45]

There is a Myth going around that somehow Drafting D-lineman is safer than drafting a QB. I think we all agree that the upside for drafting a franchise QB is more valuable in the long run than a stud D-Lineman. So I researched the past 7 drafts and took a look into the top defensive lineman and quarterback that were drafted. In the end the bust rate of the QB position is actually less than the bust rate of D-Lineman. So people want to pass on Luck/QB because he maybe a bust and become the next Ryan leaf… well we can go d-line and they can become the next Maybin or whoever.

Also the scouting of QB’s have gotten better and the bust rate of Top QB’s are actually pretty low compared to how people make it seem. It’s not a 50/50 coin flip or complete crapshoot anymore.

D-Line

2010

#2 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska, Detroit- Stud, off to an Awesome start

#3 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma, Tampa Bay- Off to a promising start

#9 BJ Raji NT, Green Bay - Part time player first season, but this year has really came on and is proving his worth as a top 10 player

#10 Tyson Alualu DE California, Jacksonville – Off to a promising start

#13 Brandon Graham DE Michigan, Philly- Off to a decent start

2009

#3 Tyson Jackson DE LSU, Kansas City – Bust so far

#11 Aaron Maybin DE/OLB PSU, Buffalo – Bust Bust Bust Bust

#13 Brian Orakpo DE/OLB Texas, Washington – Stud

2008

#2 Chris Long DE Virginia, St. Louis – Very slow start but coming on now… Still underachieving for the #2 pick in the draft

#5 Glenn Dorsey DE LSU, Kansas City – Has been labeled a bust for where he was drafted and expectations- 3.5 Career sacks

#6 Vernon Gholston DE/OLB Ohio St, NY Jets – Bust Bust Bust Bust

#7 Sedrick Ellis DT USC, New Orleans – Very very solid player, not huge numbers but easily worth the pick

#8 Derrick Harvey DE Florida, Jacksonville – Bust Bust Bust, He was finally given up on this year and benched for a 6th rounder

2007

#4 Gaines Adams DE Clemson, TB/Chicago – RIP – Decent player but underachieved greatly for what TB wanted out of him for a top 5 pick and was called out by the organization for his lack of production, then given up on a traded to Chicago for a 2nd round pick.

#8 Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Atlanta – Bust Bust Bust Bust

#10 Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Houston – Considered by some to be a bust, was in jeopardy of losing his job at one point, but he is a decent player… just not playing like a top 10 pick.

2006

#1 Mario Williams DE NC State, Houston – Stud, Worth #1 pick

#12 Haloti Ngata DT Oregon, Baltimore – Worth # 12 pick

#14 Brodrick Bunkley DT FSU, Philly – Had a couple of decent seasons… nothing special, arguable if he’s worth #14 pick

2005

#16 Travis Johnson DE/DT FSU, Houston/San Diego – Top D-Line player taken in 2005 and has not been very good over his career… But he is only a the #16 pick of the draft

2004

#14 Tommy Harris DT Oklahoma, Chicago – Pro bowl player with ups and downs… recently benched this year for his performance. But Multiple time pro-bowler and easily worth the 14 pick of the draft IMO.

Quarterbacks

2010

#1 Sam Bradford, Rams- Off to a promising start – Could be franchise QB of future

#25 The Golden Calf of Bristol, Denver - Had one great start, 1 decent - Off to a good start, Jury still out

2009

#1 Matthew Stafford, Detroit – Plagued by injuries, otherwise off to a promising start- Could be franchise Qb of future

#5 Mark Sanchez, NYJ- On a great team but off to a very good start. Has lead his team on multiple game winning drives, limited turnovers- Could be franchise QB

#17 Josh Freeman, TB – Also if to a good start and is showing a lot of improvement every game he plays – Could be franchise QB

2008

#3 Matt Ryan, Atlanta- Don’t like him…. He is a franchise QB

#18 Joe Flacco, Ravens – Franchise QB

2007

#1 Jamarcus Russel, Raiders/Home – Bust Bust Bust Bust Bust

#22 Brady Quinn- Bust Bust Bust Bust

2006

#3 Vince Young, Tennessee – Jury still out, but has underachieved and suffered too many character/maturity issues for the #3 pick of the draft

#10 Matt Leinart, Arizona/Houston – Bust Bust bust

#11 Jay Cutler, Denver/Chicago – Pro bowler, Franchise Qb, currently leading his team to a top NFC record

2005

#1 Alex Smith, San Fran – Bust

#24 Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay – Probowl/Franchise QB

#25 Jason Campbell, Washington/Oakland – Not a complete bust, but not a franchise QB either…

2004

#1 Eli Manning, NY Giants – Probowl/Superbowl/Franchise QB

#4 Phillip Rivers, San Diego – Probowl/Franchise QB

#11 Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh – Probowl/Superbowl/Franchise QB

#22 JP Loseman, Buffalo/Journeyman – Bust Bust Bust

[MHS831]

FOrgot The Golden Calf of Bristol. Thanks for the list

[theyhateme45]

Updated... thanks

[Method]

But, but, but .... the BALTIMORE RAVENS DEFENSE!!!111 RAWR!!!111

[OneBadassCat]

Jay Cutler sucks ass

[frash.exe]

boom/bust debates are always tricky because a lot of it depends on the perception of each different poster

so you're going to get a lot of defensive minded conservatives in here nitpicking the poo out of Jay Cutler's stats and looking up si for his rating under pressure while applauding the Texans Okoye pick because "HE AVERAGES 34 TACKLES A YEAR!!!!!"

[pantherfan81]

Nice work. If Luck or Cam don't declare I'm all for defense. Otherwise, it looks like we hurting for a while compared to the stud QBs that are in our division. And no, an aging FA QB isn't the answer, given the opportunity we are in with the 1st pick.

[zebrainz]

BJ Raji was selected 9th overall in the 2009 draft. Easily worth the pick.

[TheRealDeal]

I'd argue that Stafford is a bust solely because he cannot stay on the field. You need to be able to play to prove your worth and if you can't then you are a bust. I really like him too and think the Lions are the best team in that division with him healthy.

[theyhateme45]

boom/bust debates are always tricky because a lot of it depends on the perception of each different poster

so you're going to get a lot of defensive minded conservatives in here nitpicking the poo out of Jay Cutler's stats and looking up si for his rating under pressure while applauding the Texans Okoye pick because "HE AVERAGES 34 TACKLES A YEAR!!!!!"

The point is a general look at the facts to clear a misconception that is out there.

Also I did not call Okoye a bust like I did others.... I simply said considered by SOME to be a bust, almost lost his job based on performance, but I think he is a decent player.... just not a top 10 pick.

You may not like Jay Cutler and his personality, but he is a Franchise QB.... People don't like his cockiness or his brett farve gunslinger mentality.... But he has the Bears at the top of the NFC with a underachieving defense, lack of consistent running game, and no real threats at wideout. He may not be a top 5 QB or whatever, but he is a Franchise QB.

[theyhateme45]

BJ Raji was selected 9th overall in the 2009 draft. Easily worth the pick.

Agreed.... Updated

[theyhateme45]

Anyway.... the point is to realize that that picking a D-lineman in the just is No more safer than taking a QB.

A lot of people are inferring that is the case when it really isn't

[TheRealDeal]

Again, there is a difference between Franchise QB and Good QB.

[Method]

They are at the very least equal risks.

Good post.