Draft and FA predictions influenced by today's hirings

[mav1234]

lol both were me :<.

If aso shuts down half of the field, teams pick on gamble. you want that?

...yes?

lol, what kind of stupid question is that.

If half the field is shut down you can game plan to cover the other half. You're acting like we will ONLY ever be in man coverage.

Plus Gamble is a decent corner.

So you'd rather teams have the option to pick on both sides of the field at their choosing??

[House]

lol both were me :<.

If aso shuts down half of the field, teams pick on gamble. you want that?

Sure, because if you can let a DB stand completely alone with a WR then that frees up everyone else in coverage. Gamble is not chopped liver either, he was poorly utilized in the past defensive shemes.

If you are pretty much taking away a WR, the offense is playing with 10 guys. That is a pretty big help to a D.

[mav1234]

Also, about Nick Fairley, he transferred to Auburn in 2009 from a junior college and what I heard was that he was basically a walk on who fought hard for playing time and only got sizable amounts of it this year, which is why his stats are so heavily weighted to this year.

In 2008 at a junior college, he had 63 tackles and 7 sacks.

[House]

Also, about Nick Fairley, he transferred to Auburn in 2009 from a junior college and what I heard was that he was basically a walk on who fought hard for playing time and only got sizable amounts of it this year, which is why his stats are so heavily weighted to this year.

In 2008 at a junior college, he had 63 tackles and 7 sacks.

Johny, could you please tell mav1234 what he has just won!

[KJDaniel31]

Sure, because if you can let a DB stand completely alone with a WR then that frees up everyone else in coverage. Gamble is not chopped liver either, he was poorly utilized in the past defensive shemes.

If you are pretty much taking away a WR, the offense is playing with 10 guys. That is a pretty big help to a D.

+1

I don't get this argument at all...and I've seen it several times now. We DONT want Aso because he is so good that he takes away 1/2 of the field? Senseless.

I'd much rather have a D that forces punt after punt after punt than one that gets a bunch of picks and gives up more points. I'll take the good players over the average ones any day.

[Seamonk]

I think you're confused.

First, did you read Russel's scouting reports? People claimed he'd be the next great thing. He had all of it - except the work ethic, it turns out. He was worth a high first rounder. It's easy to say he wasn't worth the #1 the way he ended up busting, but what if he hadn't? Many, many scouts and analysts thought he was worth the #1 and I recall from that combine people decided he was worth it.

What I bolded just doesn't make sense. Some analysts had Gabbert at #5 before Luck said he was staying in school, and many still had him in the top half of the first round. Newton also has a good chance of going high.

There may not be a QB worth the #1 right now, but that doesn't mean none of them are worth being taken in the first round.

I remember the scouting reports. Big Dude, Big Arm, Can throw 40 yards on his Knees, etc. I also remember people breaking down how much time he had in the pocket at LSU. Especially during the Bowl game against Notre Dame. He was hard to bring down, etc.

Now he was taken #1 overall in the 2007 draft. a Weak draft in terms of QBs. In that same draft, he was determined to be worth more than Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, and Gaines Adams. The Raiders also had an OT need. While I agree that his potential made him a 1st rounder. I still, to this day, think they made the mistake of taking Russell 1st overall. He wasn't BPA. He was Best QB available, but not BPA imo. They also had bigger needs at Tackle. Joe Thomas and Levi Brown were both taken in the top 5 at OT.

Now I get it. We have a need at DT and QB. Making both Gabbert and Fairley extremely attractive. They've got the production, they've got the rediculous athleticism. But I still think they're being overrated. They're worth Top 10 picks certainly. Fairley might be a top 5. The thing I'm worried about is.. before Luck decided to stay in school. The names for QB were Luck, Mallet, Locker, Newton. Once Luck decided, the names became Gabbert, Mallet, Locker, Newton. His name shot up way too high too fast for me to be comfortable about taking him #1. It felt like ESPN going "oh there's this guy, you should talk about him now"

As for Fairley, I seriously think that a lot of his production is due to the Defensive scheme. Don't get me wrong, he's worth it, he's every bit as athletic as you guys claim him to be. I just think we can coach up a later round DT to do the same. DT is a pretty high-value position in the second-third rounds. We don't need a Fairley to upgrade, especially if it means we can get more picks in the process.

Now for Asomugha. I know what a shutdown corner is. I realize a lot of the coverage goes the other way. But face it. Asomugha will not be on an island all the time. Like you guys said, we'll be changing our defensive plays. Even with Asomugha shutting half the field down, Oakland was never a winner. They repeatedly got abused on the ground and through the air. Even when they had Rob Ryan as their DC. Asomugha is also going to demand a lot of money. We're trying to rebuild, we're going to need a lot of that money for draft picks and other FAs.

In fact, think back to 2005. The bears had Nathan Vasher (then thought to be a top tier CB) and Charles Tillman. Both are very good. Vasher was being rediculous with INTs that season. In our playoff game against them, we rarely threw in his direction. Instead we picked on Tillman. Steve Smith went absolutely apeshit that game. Now, Tillman isn't a bad Corner. He's actually pretty good. But we were able to exploit one side of the field despite the other side being shut down. Similarities in that include that Asomugha and Vasher only stayed on one side of the field during their most of their years with their teams. Although I believe Asomugha was designated to the top WR this past year.

Next. We're already paying Gamble top tier money. We bring in Asomugha, it might cause some stirs.

Also, we're going to be a team that emphasizes turnovers. I still think that my point is valid in that shutting down a side of the field will cause a decrease in Turnovers to that side of the field also. We'll see more incompletions than turnovers. Asomugha hasn't had more than 1 interception in a season since 2006 when he had 8. He's been pretty much avoided altogether. In fact his only interception in 2008 has been at the hands of Jake Delhomme.

Last, the dude is 29, about to change the system he's been a part of his entire career. Like I said before, I'd rather have a young player that we can still mold into our own.

[Highlandfire]

As much as it would benefit us to draft A.J. Green, I am still going to guess that we go with Bowers or Fairley.

Rivera is a defensive minded guy and McDermott is an AWESOME pick up. Today has been the best day since my son was born!

Rivera also talks alot about tight ends.

Chud is know historically as a tight ends coach.

I think we will chase after Zach Miller.

Anything I am missing?

We weren't taking a WR with the #1 overall pick unless we wanted to look like the greatest fools in drafting history. You NEVER take a WR #1. Also even with a CBA in place (which its not yet) then the rookie cap still doesn't kick in till 2012.

That means you are going to pay a WR more than Sam Bradford got last year. Jerry Rice in his prime wasn't worth over 50 mill guranteed.

[mav1234]

Now I get it. We have a need at DT and QB. Making both Gabbert and Fairley extremely attractive. They've got the production, they've got the rediculous athleticism. But I still think they're being overrated. They're worth Top 10 picks certainly. Fairley might be a top 5. The thing I'm worried about is.. before Luck decided to stay in school. The names for QB were Luck, Mallet, Locker, Newton. Once Luck decided, the names became Gabbert, Mallet, Locker, Newton. His name shot up way too high too fast for me to be comfortable about taking him #1. It felt like ESPN going "oh there's this guy, you should talk about him now"

this is just not true. Gabbert has been on the radar since the start of this year as a top QB this year, but he was NOT expected to declare. He was already in the top 10 on many scouts boards BEFORE Luck said he was staying in school (McShay had him at #5 or 6 if I recall, and Kiper had him a bit lower but I think he was still 8 or 12).

As for Aso, it's totally cool to say "Because of his age I don't think he's worth the money, especially with an aging Gamble." It does not make sense, however, to try to make an argument that you don't want him since he shuts down half the field.

[Pox 08]

I'd like to see them try to get Haynesworth. Haynesworth + Fairley.

I know, Richardson doesn't like problem guys. Still, we run a 4-3, he'd have great talent around him and the Skins will probably let him go for next to nothing since they seem eager to ditch him.

[Seamonk]

this is just not true. Gabbert has been on the radar since the start of this year as a top QB this year, but he was NOT expected to declare. He was already in the top 10 on many scouts boards BEFORE Luck said he was staying in school (McShay had him at #5 or 6 if I recall, and Kiper had him a bit lower but I think he was still 8 or 12).

As for Aso, it's totally cool to say "Because of his age I don't think he's worth the money, especially with an aging Gamble." It does not make sense, however, to try to make an argument that you don't want him since he shuts down half the field.

For aso, I still think if you're going to shut down half the field, you shoudl still be productive in the turnover game. There's better corners who learn to bait QBs like Revis. You'd think Aso would take more advantage of that. Either that or his ball skills aren't what they once were. I think the confusion is in that the definition of a shut-down corner is whoever takes a WR out of the game. However, turnovers don't seem to be part of Asomugha's game as of late. So I can still label him a shut-down corner, however I dislike the fact that he's not active in the turnover game and possibly will not help us in that aspect, although he may do his job correctly.

And i guess that's my bad on Gabbert. I honestly had never heard of him being on anyones radar until Luck was gone. I guess that's more attributed to being so optimistic we'd get Luck that I didn't really bother looking at any other QB prospect. I still think that the way people have described him, he feels more like a physical specimen to me than other QBs. I'm mostly kind of holding out that we don't get a QB this year(since there's no Luck) because that might hurt our chances at signing a mid to high level vet. Plus not having that second rounder really hurts now.

[mav1234]

For aso, I still think if you're going to shut down half the field, you shoudl still be productive in the turnover game. There's better corners who learn to bait QBs like Revis. You'd think Aso would take more advantage of that. Either that or his ball skills aren't what they once were. I think the confusion is in that the definition of a shut-down corner is whoever takes a WR out of the game. However, turnovers don't seem to be part of Asomugha's game as of late. So I can still label him a shut-down corner, however I dislike the fact that he's not active in the turnover game and possibly will not help us in that aspect, although he may do his job correctly.

And i guess that's my bad on Gabbert. I honestly had never heard of him being on anyones radar until Luck was gone. I guess that's more attributed to being so optimistic we'd get Luck that I didn't really bother looking at any other QB prospect. I still think that the way people have described him, he feels more like a physical specimen to me than other QBs. I'm mostly kind of holding out that we don't get a QB this year(since there's no Luck) because that might hurt our chances at signing a mid to high level vet. Plus not having that second rounder really hurts now.

Gabbert was not big hype because he was not expected to go pro this year. He was one of the top 5 QBs all year according to many analysts, and moved up the board as others fell further down. But it was a total shock he declared.

As to Revis/Aso, do you know how many interceptions Revis has had this year?

I understand what you're saying, and I do think there are reasons not to pick him up.

[GritsRgreat]

Haynesworth is garbage

[Seamonk]

Gabbert was not big hype because he was not expected to go pro this year. He was one of the top 5 QBs all year according to many analysts, and moved up the board as others fell further down. But it was a total shock he declared.

As to Revis/Aso, do you know how many interceptions Revis has had this year?

I understand what you're saying, and I do think there are reasons not to pick him up.

Revis had the same amount as Aso.

However, Aso has been stuck at like 0 to 1 INT per season since 2007.

Revis has also struggled with injuries this season. He's still an aggressive cover corner who will bait and jump routes. Plus, his team has generally been winning. Despite being part of the "Ryan" system.

And.. I understand that about Gabbert. Like I said, I didn't really follow any QB prospect other than Luck. I still find it hard to get on his Bandwagon.

[Matthias]

I think if you could shut down one side of the field, then shame on you for not getting turnovers as a defense. It doesn't take a genius to plan accordingly and aggressively defend that side of the field you know the QBs throwing to. If the Raiders couldn't do anything with Aso playing there, shame on them.

Gamble's int count went down because teams started throwing the other way. (Yes, team threw on him, but they favored throwing on Marshall's side of the field.) Having Aso here, Gamble's int count will go up drastically.

Yet if we picked up Aso, drafted Fairley and resigned our LBs, I would predict the Panthers would have the most turnovers in the league. Opposing offenses would have to worry about constant pressure from Johnson, Fairley, and hopefully Hardy, which would create many turnovers. (All those guys are young and fast)