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Recipe for a bust

Mr. Scot

By Mr. Scot,
in Carolina Panthers

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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The day the Panthers secured the number one pick in this year's draft, I was pretty happy :)

The day Andrew Luck said he was staying in school, that happiness went away :(

Having the top pick in the draft is a wonderful thing in years when there's at least one player - maybe even more - on whose worthiness for that pick there is general agreement.

If that player doesn't exist though, then no matter who you take and what position they play, you're reaching. And the sad truth is that reaches at number one have an unfortunate tendency to turn into busts.

The obvious answer, of course, is to trade down. But there's the Catch 22. If there's no clear-cut number one, then what incentive is there for anyone to trade up?

Happily, there's still a fair amount of time between now and the end of April, time enough for some team to fall in love with a particular prospect and get nervous enough about the possibility of missing out that they'll make an offer. Will it happen? Don't know, but we can hope.

If it doesn't though, we'll end up having to reach, and that makes me nervous :willy_nilly:

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Swarly Newbie

Swarly

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Trading down is never gonna happen unfortunately. People every season say the team picking first should trade down because they have many needs, but it never happens.

Might be different this year with uncertainty on if a new rookie wage scale will exist, but I still don't see it happening.

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Sword Newbie

Sword

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So with no clear cut best player, don't you think it's possible but I suppose scary to many, that the Panthers take a player at a position of their biggest need and greatest impact? Even if he doesn't start right away the team needs some hope for the future.

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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So with no clear cut best player, don't you think it's possible but I suppose scary to many, that the Panthers take a player at a position of their biggest need and greatest impact? Even if he doesn't start right away the team needs some hope for the future.

I think if you're drafting number one, you pretty much have to take someone who can start and have an impact right away.

The only exception would be if you had no immediate needs and had an established starter at a particular spot which would allow you to spend that pick on a prospect who could be something special down the road.

But then, if that was your situation, you wouldn't have ended up earning the number one pick, would you? :(

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Sword Newbie

Sword

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I don't mind starting them right away if they are able to learn as they play..we are not going to be that good anyway yet unless rivera is a genius. all the positions that are talking about at the top of the board take time to develop as star players anyway..not much you can do about it.

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TylerDurden Grand Master

TylerDurden

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Good post Mr.Scot, I've said this since Luck backed out - that this was a relatively weak year to earn the #1 pick, as there was no clear cut candidate if Luck didn't declare. I still find myself getting excited about the process leading up to that pick occasionally, but then I catch myself and realize we are going to take a VERY unsexy pick (OL, DL, etc.) to avoid the bust label, or we're gonna draft a bust.

I don't really see anything good happening with this pick and it feels like we're stuck with it.

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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I don't mind starting them right away if they are able to learn as they play..we are not going to be that good anyway yet unless rivera is a genius. all the positions that are talking about at the top of the board take time to develop as star players anyway..not much you can do about it.

Defensive linemen, linebackers, runningbacks, offensive linemen and sometimes corners can generally start earlier than other positions.

Depends on the player and the coaching to a certain degree, but there's a bigger learning curve for some positions than others (none larger than quarterback).

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