SCO96

The Saints game is what really concerned me. We were playing a 1-8 at home and they were starting a rookie QB. Bryce played one of the worst games I've seen him play. Those type of performances (and the one in SF last Monday) are why most of us are not on board with extending him, or even picking up the 5th year option.

Your chart confirms what I noticed yesterday. No real success passing the ball in the middle of the field. Everything is pretty much confined to the area outside the numbers and hashmarks. I didn't realize he only completed 2 passes that were 10 yards beyond the LOS until you mentioned it in an earlier post. BTW, where did you get this chart?

Yes sir. And sometimes they'll even have a graph with a distribution of where the ball was thrown: to the left, to the right or over the middle. I feel that I've noticed a trend with Bryce in terms of how he attacks the field. I want to know if the analytics back me up or if I'm just imaging things.

Sometimes after a game one of the Huddlers will post a picture of Bryce's past distribution chart. Where do you get that data? And has anything been posted for yesterdays game?

Actually, that was all me my man. I looked at the YPA numbers in ESPN. Bryce is 6.4 this year, 6.3 last year, and under 6.0 in 2023. I just typed in the wrong number and forgot to average the 3 seasons.

Oops, thanks for catching that. That's even worse news.

Yep. I've known about the importance of Yards/attempt for years but it was nice to see it all summarized in an easy to read format.

I found the below information on the web this morning. It's rather long, but it pretty much sums up Bryce's career (to date) with the Panthers. When he plays well, we play well. When he delivers a typical "Bryce Young Performance" the team struggles. The segment detailing the meaning of a his career YPA completely describes his tenure in Carolina ------ In the modern NFL, anything around 7.5 yards per attempt (YPA) or higher is considered good, and 8.0+ YPA is typically viewed as very good to excellent. YPA Benchmarks (Modern NFL) 6.5 and below — Poor (As of yesterday Young's career mark is 6.4) 6.6 to 7.2 — Below average to average 7.3 to 7.6 — Solid/Good 7.7 to 8.2 — Very good 8.3+ — Excellent / top-tier QB efficiency (Yesterday Young posted a mark of 10.3) Why 7.5+ is “good” League-wide YPA in recent seasons typically sits in the 7.1–7.3 range. So once a quarterback is consistently above ~7.5, he’s operating above league efficiency and generating chunk plays without excessive short passes. What a Sub-6.5 YPA Typically Means 1. Inefficient passing You’re gaining fewer yards per throw than the league norm (~7.1–7.3). This usually correlates with: Fewer explosive plays Struggling to sustain drives Lower scoring offenses YPA is one of the best simple efficiency indicators, so being under 6.5 usually means the passing game isn’t functioning well. 2. Overly conservative passing A low YPA often reflects: Too many checkdowns Short, low-risk throws Not pushing the ball downfield Play calling designed to avoid mistakes rather than gain yards This is common with rookie QBs, backups, or teams with poor pass protection. 3. Difficulty completing intermediate and deep throws Low YPA can mean: The QB isn’t hitting big-play throws Accuracy issues Arm strength limitations Receivers not getting separation 4. Poor supporting structure Sometimes it’s not the QB—low YPA can also result from: Weak offensive line (forcing quick dump-offs) Below-average receivers Predictable or safe play calling Injuries limiting the scheme 5. Usually correlates with losing Historically, teams with <6.5 YPA tend to have: Below-average offensive efficiency Poor 3rd-down conversion Lower points per game Losing records YPA correlates strongly with winning; sub-6.5 teams often finish near the bottom.

I wonder if he'll receive any consideration for COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR. Because of the knee injury, D. Brown practically missed all of the 2024 season.

I still think Brown is not playing his natural position. He seems tailor-made to play the 4-3 NT, and even a 3-technique in some cases. Imagine him playing for Ron Rivera alongside Kwann Short with Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson coming off the edges. His sack totals would go up because he wouldn't be getting most of the attention like he does now.

I've been critical of Brown in the past. I never thought he was a bust. I just felt that to be taken that high in the draft he needed to have a bigger impact in the field, especially in terms of a pass rush in a pass-happy league. He always been good in most games against the run. This year his pass rush has improved. He has a career high 4 sacks this season (which leads the team), and we still have 4 games to go. That sack number is literally 1/3 of his career sack total (12). Even more impressive is the fact that he's having such a great season coming off an season-ending injury in 2024. He (and Horn) are really living up to their draft slot...and that's a good thing for the team and fans alike.

From Start to Finish it was one of the most entertaining games I've seen all year: Explosive Plays down the field, great catches, several lead changes w/out either team being able to land a knockout punch, crucial defensive stops/turnovers, and a down to the wire ending. And as you pointed out, Carolina came out on top!

Good point. I think we're ok at cornerback. We held our own against arguably the most explosive offense in the NFL with our best CB on the bench. We have several guys that can play SS as you pointed out. We need a Ball-Hawking guy to man the FS position. We know these guys don't grow on trees, but it would be nice to find a guy with great instincts that is good in pass coverage and could get us about 5 INTS every year.

The information/formula in my post comes from a defunct football site website, Cold Hard Football Facts.com. It was hosted by Kerry Byrne back in the day. I think the website closed down around 2016-2017 so I'm unable to directly access information from their webpage. I had to use Chat GTP to search the internet for the information/formula. The data is solid. After the MNF game I'll post some information about these passing stats. I can guarantee you that nearly every team with a +10 to +20 PDR is in the run a playoff spot and those in with a negative PDR are in the bottom third of the NFL in winning percentage.

Another major stat is defensive passer rating differential. This is calculated by the following formula. Passer Rating Differential = (Offensive Passer Rating) − (Opponent Passer Rating Allowed) 61.2 = (Bryce's rating 147.1) - (Stafford's rating 85.9) If a team has a +10 differential they have a 70-75% chance of winning A team with a +20 differential has 85-90% chance of winning A +25 to +30 differential has a 95% chance of winning. According to Chat GPT A passer rating differential of +25 or higher is one of the strongest predictors of victory in a single NFL game — more reliable than turnover differential, rushing yards, or total yards Bryce played well overall today, but a lion's share of the credit goes to the defense for their ability to force Stafford in several uncharacteristic errors to keep his QBR under 90 today. If the team is going to be successful going forward, Bryce is going to have to play like this from week to week or the team needs to bring another QB who is up to the task.