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A Realist's Realistic Prediction


The Pieyed Piper

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    • I'd edited to be more clear where he was ahead of league average, but realize it was easily missed, sorry.  I do hope he falls off a cliff production wise because if he actually continues at this pace it's highly likely the TDs come and then he'll be a real problem. Anyway, to the stats... Shough is substantially better than the average in completion percentage, YPG, and INT% (68% vs 64.4% and 237 vs 215 and 1.7 vs 2.2). He is pretty close to the average in Y/A (7.14 vs 7.1) and rating (91.63 vs 91.8). He is a bit below the average in TDs per game (1.3 vs ~1.5, which is hard to average exactly due to the number of players that are part of this stat), QBR (51.54 vs 54.7) and quite a bit below in TD% (3% vs 4.7%). In advanced stats, he's above the league average in intended air yards/attempt (8.1 v 7.7) and on target % (76.8 vs 74.6), while barely below is in bad throw % (16.1 vs 16.0). This jives with what I've seen - decent young player, playing at a level that looks like a veteran starter, on a bad team. I've always said (and this is true of Bryce too, I even mentioned it this year) that I am less concerned with 30+ yard bombs than consistency at 15+ yards, because you need to be able to threaten past the sticks. Shough is doing that. Vs us in week 15 he had ~one third of his passes 15ish or more yards and he was money on them, and that wasn't really an exception, he has had some nice throws outside of that.  All that said, dude is just super new to the league, and once film gets out, if he does have limitations they will be exploited. No way he can get OROTY. And thanks for the kind words - I am prone to hyperbole at times, but I'm also just impressed by Shough. We'll see if he can keep it up (I hope not, unless the Saints randomly trade him lol)
    • To be fair, going from 2 wins, to 5 wins, to 8 wins at least is a pretty big positive no matter how insufferably miserable a select handful in this group want to make everything.
    • Yeah Moore is definitely going to be a problem.  I remember he was the favorite for our job at one point in time.  
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