Week 4 WIN against Tampa - Stats & Analysis

[KB_fan]

Black & Blue Review ‏@BlackBlueReview 15h15 hours ago

#Panthers lead the NFL with a +8 turnover margin.

[KB_fan]

Carolina Panthers ‏@Panthers 19h19 hours ago

#Panthers improve to 4-0 for first time sine 2003! #CARvsTB Rapid Recap: http://panth.rs/rHOd2G 

[KB_fan]

Black & Blue Review ‏@BlackBlueReview 9m9 minutes ago

Only the Vikings and 49ers are averaging fewer passing yards per game than the Panthers.

[KB_fan]

The PFF game highlights grades are posted:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/10/05/car-tb-grades-career-day-for-cb-josh-norman/

Carolina Panthers

— Cornerback Josh Norman (+4.3) set the tone for the Panthers yesterday, picking off Jameis Winston (-6.7) in the first quarter and taking it back to the house for a score. While that play highlighted his performance, he made several other big plays leading to the best grade of his career. Norman was targeted eight times and allowed only two receptions for 31 yards. That, combined with his two interceptions and two pass defenses, led to Winston having a passer rating of 3.6 when targeting Norman on Sunday.

— Carolina made two defensive end acquisitions last week, and while many expected Jared Allen (-4.5), whom the team traded for, to make the big plays and bring the pressure from the edge, it was actually Ryan Delaire (+3.6) who delivered this performance. The undrafted rookie, who was signed off of Washington’s practice squad last week, made several impressive plays in his first NFL game. He recorded two sacks, one quarterback hit, and one quarterback hurry on 28 pass rush snaps leading to a pass rush grade of +2.7, the highest on the team. He also picked up four run stops on only 12 run plays.

— Despite Carolina’s dominant win, it was not one of quarterback Cam Newton’s (-2.0) better games, especially when throwing 10+ yards downfield. Although he completed three of his five passes between the numbers for a passer rating of 104.2, only one pass was completed of his six attempts outside the numbers. This included a late throw to Greg Olsen in the red zone that should have been intercepted by Lavonte David (-0.6), but was dropped.

Top performers:

DT Kawann Short (+4.5)

CB Josh Norman (+4.3)

DE Ryan Delaire (+3.6)

WR Brenton Bersin (+2.6)

RG Trai Turner (+2.6)

[Cuttinedge]

Philly brown 91 snaps 3 targets and 1 reception.  And I was told on here when I questioned his desire last week. That phillys open all the time. Someone should tell Cam. 

I think Phillys going thru the motions. That one pass yesterday he didn't give a lot of effort against a safety. Dudes just picking up a check at this point.  Playing scared

[KB_fan]

Interesting sidebar to an article on ESPN today:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13816879/carolina-panthers-apologize-being-4-0

Metrics unfazed by Panthers start

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special-teams efficiency, the Panthers are the lowest-ranked undefeated team and behind nine teams with at least one loss.

FPI rank for unbeaten teams

Team	FPI	Rank
Patriots	7.8	1st
Packers	5.4	3rd
Bengals	4.1	5th
Falcons	3.8	7th
Broncos	3.5	8th
Panthers	0.4	15th

[KB_fan]

Those stats above intrigue me because I was just thinking about intangible / non-statistical factors that have contributed to our being 4 - 0.   Might write more on this tomorrow or Wed.

[KB_fan]

Was listening to some commentary about the game.  Apparently according to PFF, 33% of Tampa's dropbacks yesterday we got some kind of pass pressure, which I believe is a huge improvement from weeks 2 and 3.  Even though we "only" got credited with 2 sacks, the pressure was much more effective.

Does anyone have access to PFF and can post the data from last week and prior weeks?

[panthers55]

The problem with stats is lack of context. For example a 25 yard drive where we score a TD is worth a lot more than a 70 yard drive that nets no points. But total yard stats would disagree. 

The only stat that matters is points for versus points against for any given game.

Maybe turnover advantage for each game is a good predictor. 

Cumulative stats and averages don't really show matchup results which is what matters in individual contests.

[KB_fan]

Ok, I've got a bit more time & energy today to dig a bit into a few stats from Sunday's game, and the 1st quarter of the season.   Let's start with big picture / scoring totals:

I find it interesting that not only have we scored more points in every game we've played, but we've allowed more points each game as well.  Not necessarily a trend that is sustainable.  Hopefully with Luke back, and a re-invigorated pass rush with Allen & Delaire we'll see those points allowed get very stingy again.

I also find it interesting that we and our opponents have nearly identical averages in terms of % of total points scored in the 1st and second halves (though obviously the JAX & HOU games individually had quite a different pattern.)

There is a sense that we've been doing enough to win and outpace our opponents, but not necessarily dominating any.  Our most dominating performance was in the 2nd half against JAX when we not only shut them out, but kept them from crossing the 50 yard line.

As the time of game winning score stats show above, we've not had to mount a late 4th quarter comeback in any game.  Yes, we've had some cardiac cats games in week 2 and week 3 where we nearly gave away our lead and could have lost, but we've not been trailing during any game in the 4th quarter.  In fact, we've hardly trailed at any point in the 2nd half.  The ONLY game we have ever trailed at all in the 2nd half was early in the 3rd Q against New Orleans following their punt return TD.  We trailed for 3:48 in that half.  Otherwise, we have been tied or led during the 2nd half of all our games this season.

More on our offense by quarter shortly...

(oops: the W-L total in the right hand column should of course be 4 - 0.  I think the season totals / averages and the per game averages are correct, but I'll check.)

[Mr. Scot]

Kudos on these threads, KBF.

[KB_fan]

Kudos on these threads, KBF.

Thanks.  Sorry they've been a bit hit or miss depending on my time and energy.  I'd love to be able to get into a rhythm and be able to provide some consistent analysis each week.

[Mr. Scot]

Thanks.  Sorry they've been a bit hit or miss depending on my time and energy.  I'd love to be able to get into a rhythm and be able to provide some consistent analysis each week.

Don't feel obligated, dude. Your life comes first.

[KB_fan]

Here's a breakdown of Offense by Quarter for our 1st 4 games:

Note that Points do NOT include points scored by our defense (i.e. Josh Norman's two pick-6 TDs).  Also kneel down drives at the end of the half or the end of the game are not included.  Yards are NET yards (i.e. including penalties).

Our offense has scored in all but 3 of the 16 quarters we've played in.  Generally, we're scoring most of our points on offense in the 2nd and third quarters. 

Many have bemoaned our poor 1st quarter offense.  However, do keep in mind that we've won the toss in 3 of our 4 games and elected to defer, so in general, we've had fewer drives and thus fewer scoring opportunities in the 1st quarter of games.  However, even so, our point totals are still disproportionately low in the 1st quarter.  So far, it's not been a big problem as our defense has kept us from having too big of a hole to climb out of...