Washington Post: The Perfect Game Plan

[KB_fan]

A great article from the Washington Post outlining the "perfect game plan" - how Carolina can win:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/02/03/here-is-the-perfect-super-bowl-50-game-plan-for-the-carolina-panthers/

 

They also have a perfect game plan for Denver:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/02/03/here-is-the-perfect-super-bowl-50-game-plan-for-the-denver-broncos/

 

Here are some excerpts of the game plan for the Panthers:
 

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If the Panthers can get that ground game going, and keep the distance manageable on third and fourth down, it could be a huge help. The Panthers’ offensive line produced the second highest percentage (76 percent) of first downs or touchdowns on runs on third or fourth down with two yards or fewer to go. Denver’s defense, on the other hand, was second to last (83 percent allowed) in this regard.

One other reason the Panthers should be optimistic they can succeed against the Broncos’ rushing defense: Carolina guards Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner, along with center Ryan Kalil, were among the highest-rated run-blocking offensive linemen in the NFL per the game charters at Pro Football Focus. The team was at their best rushing behind Norwell, the left guard, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Rushes everywhere else produced 4.1.

 

 

 

[KB_fan]

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Luke Kuechly is the best cover linebacker in the game. He had four interceptions during the regular season and held opposing quarterbacks to a 57.8 passer rating when in primary coverage. In the postseason, that has dropped to 38.0. In other words, quarterbacks are better off throwing the ball in the dirt (which produces a 39.5 passer rating) than they are trying to test Kuechly. Carolina also has cornerback Josh Norman, who held passers to a 54.0 rating in the regular season when they threw into his coverage area. But even the best coverage will break down over time, so Carolina will still need to get pressure on Peyton Manning. That brings us to the final key: Kawann Short.

The defensive tackle has a chance to be the most disruptive player in the Carolina defense in Super Bowl 50. Short registered 12 sacks, 10 hits and 46 hurries this season, and was the sixth best pass-rusher among interior lineman per Pro Football Focus. Denver’s Louis Vasquez and Evan Mathis ranked 14th and 32nd, respectively, in pass-blocking among 66 guards that played at least half of their team’s snaps. Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson explains why that could be a problem for Denver.

For Short’s part up front, Denver’s offensive line has been vastly improved throughout the course of the season, but the Broncos don’t have anybody that can contain him in pass-protection (based on current evidence). The interior trio, over the season for Denver, has surrendered an average of 5.5 pressures per game, while Short has more total pressures this season than all but three other defensive tackles.

Putting pressure on Manning makes the quarterback go from bad to worse. His passer rating drops from 73.4 to 63.0 while his touchdown-to-interception ratio crashes from 8-to-9 to 3-to-8.

 

 

[KB_fan]

For Denver, keys include pressuring Cam (but not blitzing)
 

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But like any quarterback, Newton falters in the pocket when facing the pass rush. Under those circumstances, his passer rating drops from 112.6 to 71.1, the equivalent of going from Russell Wilson to Nick Foles. However, that doesn’t mean Denver should blitz Newton: his passer rating jumped to 118.7 on those plays.

 

 

And the Broncos need to avoid a one-dimensional offense.  They need to run.

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According to Vincent Verhei of Football Outsiders, it was this propensity to be a one-dimensional offense that was a key factor in some of the worst games turned in by Denver this season:

Yet even as the passing game floundered, Denver didn’t make much of an effort to run the ball. In these four bad games, they ran the ball only 32 percent of the time; in their other 12 games, that number climbed to 40 percent. This would make sense if we were talking about the Manning of 10 or five or even two years ago, but given his obvious drawbacks now, passing on two-thirds of all plays seems ludicrous. But if that’s how they want to play it, the Panthers won’t need to be shy about stuffing the box and daring Manning to beat them. The Broncos have shown a tendency to kill themselves with a pass-wacky attack this year.

The Broncos have two options in the backfield: C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman.

Anderson ran the ball 152 times for 720 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 2.9 yards per carry after contact. Ten of those runs went over 15 yards. Hillman chipped in 863 yards and seven touchdowns on 207 carries. Manning also plays a role, especially through the play-action pass.

Pro Football Focus @PFF

When using play action Peyton Manning's passer rating jumps 25 points (62.8 to 87.8) + YPA soars from 6.1 to 9.4. #Broncos need the run game

10:21 PM - 1 Feb 2016

 

 

Where the Broncos can take advantage the most is in the power running game. The Panthers’ defensive front stopped just 13 percent of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, from achieving a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate in the NFL.

 

 

I hadn't realized we were so poor in stopping the run on 3rd & 4th down.  I wish I had time to dig more deeply into those stats and see which teams ran the most against us in these circumstances...

[KB_fan]

What's really funny is in the article on Denver, the stats gurus focus on Denver's need to avoid giveaways..... The team with the best turnover differential almost always wins the super bowl.  You'd think they MIGHT have mentioned this stat as a positive in the article about the Panthers given that we led the league by a BIG margin in takeaways and points off of takeaways:

Denver's propensity to turn over the ball is a big POSTIVE for us, and one of the reasons we are favored...

 

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Win the turnover battle

Taking care of the ball is paramount — three of Denver’s four losses were with a negative turnover differential — but in the Super Bowl, it’s critical. Teams with a positive differential have won 36 of 41 championship games.

Overall, the Broncos had 31 giveaways — only the Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans had more. The Panthers, on the other hand, led the league in takeaways (39).

 

 

[Daeavorn]

7 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

For Denver, keys include pressuring Cam (but not blitzing)
 

And the Broncos need to avoid a one-dimensional offense.  They need to run.

 

I hadn't realized we were so poor in stopping the run on 3rd & 4th down.  I wish I had time to dig more deeply into those stats and see which teams ran the most against us in these circumstances...

To me this says we need better DEs. If its 3rd down we probably have mario out there and hes known to be weak vs the run. HOpefully as Ealy progresses this changes.

[KB_fan]

Another interesting article is at Sports Illustrated.  An All-22 analysis of four key matchups. 

a few excerpts:

http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/02/03/super-bowl-50-preview-matchups-broncos-panthers

 

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Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson vs. Trai Turner and Andrew Norwell

We know that the Panthers have the most effective and complex run game in the NFL this season and, in fact, one of the best ground games of the past few years. But Carolina’s offensive line had better be ready for a heavy dose of interior pressure from Wolfe and Jackson, who rank among the best duos of 3–4 defensive ends in the game. Wolfe got a well-earned four-year, $36.7 million contract extension on Jan. 15 as a show of Denver’s appreciation, and Jackson, who is set to enter free agency, might be even more coveted than Wolfe would have been. Jackson has five sacks this season, but that total doesn’t come close to telling the whole story of how great he is. Per Pro Football Focus, only Philly’s Fletcher Cox had more quarterback hurries than Jackson’s 45, and only J.J. Watt had more batted passes than Jackson’s seven.

[there's then an analysis with clips from the AFC CG and the pressure Denver got on Brady....]

The Panthers’ guards will present a tougher challenge than New England’s. Right guard Turner is one of the best at his position, and underrated left guard Norwell holds up very well in pass protection. In fact, Norwell is working on a shutout this postseason: not a single sack, hit or hurry allowed in 121 total snaps. Turner has allowed just one hurry so far. Add in center Ryan Kalil, who has also given up no pressures in the playoffs, and this battle of strengths between Carolina’s interior offensive line and Denver’s defensive line could decide how often Cam Newton throws under pressure, one of the few things Newton doesn't consistently do well.

[... clips..]

Daniels doesn’t have the size/speed advantage that Graham brings to the table, but he does have a complete understanding of Gary Kubiak’s offense. Kubiak has coached Daniels in Houston, Baltimore and Denver, and the first touchdown against the Patriots was a great case study in Daniels’s route awareness. Daniels was the inside man in Denver’s three-man formation, Collins got caught up underneath, Daniels threw him a sick inside fake before heading back outside, and that was all she wrote. From a formation perspective, it was much like the play Graham used to shred Carolina’s intermediate zone. 

 

 

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Owen Daniels vs. Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis

According to Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics, the NFL’s two best defenses are facing off in Super Bowl 50: Denver is ranked first, Carolina second. However, no team was better at guarding tight ends than Carolina, and the Panthers get it done with their top-shelf personnel at linebacker. Kuechly and Davis are both absolutely fantastic against the pass, and safety Kurt Coleman has excelled coming down to help with intermediate coverage—that’s one reason he has seven picks, two of which came on throws aimed at tight ends.

One other reason for that high coverage grade, though: The Panthers haven’t faced a lot of teams with dominant tight ends. The most physically gifted tight end Carolina went up against this season is Seattle’s Jimmy Graham. In a 27–23 Panthers win, Graham torched the league’s top defense for eight catches and 140 yards by exploiting the voids in Carolina's zone coverage over and over, sitting down in the areas where Kuechly and Davis hand off receivers to the safeties. This 27-yard seam route with 12:21 left in the third quarter of that game captures Carolina’s zone weaknesses perfectly. Daniels, who beat Patriots linebacker Jamie Collins for two touchdowns in the AFC title game, will certainly take notice. 

 

 

[KB_fan]

Finally in that SI article is a discussion of the matchup between KK and Peyton:
 

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The Panthers have a wealth of ancillary pass rushers who are effective in situational roles, but Short is the epicenter of the pressure, and he’s going to be one of Peyton Manning’s biggest problems in the Super Bowl. This has unquestionably been Manning’s least impressive season from a statistical perspective since his rookie season of 1998, when he led the league with 28 interceptions. And Manning is especially vulnerable to pressure these days. In the 2015 season, he’s had 141 dropbacks under pressure (out of 420 total), throwing three touchdowns and eight picks when his pocket has been disrupted. Sure, he hasn’t thrown any picks under pressure in the postseason, but he hasn’t thrown any touchdowns under pressure, either.

Denver’s game plan at this point is for Manning to get rid of the ball at the first sign of trouble, and Short brings all kinds of trouble. Let’s look at this sack of Atlanta’s Matt Ryan in Week 14. The Panthers are playing an over front with Thomas Davis at the line. Short takes Atlanta left guard Andy Levitre one-on-one, and this just isn't fair. Short gets in his area, puts a speed-to-power hump move on the poor guard, à la Reggie White, and blows right by Levitre, causing a Ryan fumble that is recovered eight yards behind the line of scrimmage by receiver Julio Jones.

[....]

If this happens to Manning too often, the Broncos are going to be in a lot of trouble. 

 

 

[KB_fan]

In another thread, an article at ESPN about the Denver defense is linked.  It's really excellent about the complexity of the Panthers' run game and how Denver has not faced our style of offense much.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14705931/denver-best-defense-football-facing-attack-yet-face-nfl

Here's an excerpt I found very telling:

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Instead, the Broncos have edge rushers and depth at cornerback. That would have been a great matchup against the Cardinals, but Wade Phillips has to make this combination work against the Panthers. How does he do it? It's hard to say, because the sample size of Phillips defenses against zone-read teams over the past several years is remarkably slim. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Phillips' defenses in Houston faced just 26 zone-read attempts in his three combined seasons as defensive coordinator from 2011 to 2013. The Broncos followed up by facing just 14 zone-read attempts this season, most of which came against the Chiefs. Forty attempts over four seasons isn't a meaningful amount of information. By comparison, the Panthers used the read-option a league-high 119 times on the ground this season alone.

So yeah, a lot of Denver's (rightly) vaunted defense isn't designed for or experienced in playing an offense like ours  That gives me SO MUCH encouragement that a BIG PANTHERS WIN is really possible!

[KB_fan]

Here's another really interesting section from that ESPN article:
 

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Pushing seven men into the box and trusting his defensive backs to hold up in man coverage (or some variant of man coverage) is a lot for Phillips to ask, but his defensive backs might be up to the task. Carolina often uses all that run confusion and those powerful, two-tight end formations to max protect and throw downfield. If you're wondering how Ted Ginn managed to get five yards open downfield more this season than he has during the entirety of his career up to 2015, here's how.

The Panthers protected Newton with seven men or more -- meaning that there were no more than three receivers running routes -- on 17.1 percent of their dropbacks this season. That was the most in the league by a comfortable margin; second-placed Indianapolis was at 13.7 percent, and the league average was 8.1 percent, less than half of Carolina's frequency. The Panthers posted a 110.8 passer rating on their 89 pass attempts when they went max protect. That was the sixth-best figure in the league.

The good news for Broncos fans -- and I realize this hasn't been a very fun section to read if you are a Denver supporter -- is that they've been great against teams who max protect. They've allowed a QBR of just 26.2 against teams keeping seven men or more in to block, the third-best figure in the league behind Cleveland (14.7) and, um, Carolina (24.4). And while you might expect the Panthers to be great on play-action given the success of their running game, Newton & Co. are actually 30th in the league in QBR when they go with a play fake. The Panthers are great on offense, which isn't surprising in that they had the league's top-ranked attack this year, but they have a few holes.

 

 

[Bronn]

I came here for "Contain Cam, bracket Olsen."

 

I left after reading a good article... Thanks!

[KB_fan]

And still more from the comprehensive ESPN article.  Our awesome red-zone offense against Denver's so-so red zone defense:

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The offense also has held up its end of the bargain, as it has been unstoppable in the red zone. Carolina's seven possessions inside the 20 have ended with six touchdowns and one field goal, good for a ridiculous 6.42 points per red zone trip. And there's not a ton of evidence that the Broncos, for all their defensive dominance, are an especially stout team inside their own 20. They allowed 4.81 points per red zone possession on defense this season, which was 15th in the league. They're down to 3.42 points per red zone trip this postseason, but that's also in a much smaller sample (and includes New England's adventures in extra points from the AFC Championship Game).

 

[Darth Biscuit]

5 hours ago, KB_fan said:

I hadn't realized we were so poor in stopping the run on 3rd & 4th down.  I wish I had time to dig more deeply into those stats and see which teams ran the most against us in these circumstances...

This has GOT to have something to do with the "prevent" type mindset we seem to have on D.  Conservative "don't give up a big play" mentality.  It's served us well over the season but it's frustrating as hell to watch.