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Draft Availability / POLL - Round 1

KB_fan

By KB_fan,
in Carolina Panthers

Round 1 Draft Pick Poll:  

125 members have voted

  1. 1. If these players are on the board in Round 1, who do you pick?

    • CB  ARTIE BURNS - MIAMI
      1
    • CB  KENDALL FULLER - VIRGINIA TECH
      4
    • CB  WILLIAM JACKSON - HOUSTON
      5
    • DE  EMMANUEL OGBAH - OKLAHOMA ST
      30
    • DE  JONATHAN BULLARD - FLORIDA
      1
    • DE  KEVIN DODD - CLEMSON
      35
    • DT  CHRIS JONES - MISS. ST.
      2
    • DT  VERNON BUTLER - LOUISIANA TECH
      7
    • OT  GERMAIN IFEDI - TEXAS A&M
      0
    • QB  PAXTON LYNCH - MEMPHIS
      2
    • S  KARL JOSEPH - WEST VIRGINIA
      4
    • S  KEANU NEAL - FLORIDA
      0
    • TE  HUNTER HENRY - ARKANSAS
      16
    • WR  JOSH DOCSTON - TCU
      6
    • WR  MICHAEL THOMAS - OHIO STATE
      0
    • WR  STERLING SHEPARD - OKLAHOMA
      10
    • WR  WILL FULLER - NOTRE DAME
      1

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KB_fan Proficient

KB_fan

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4 hours ago, Riverboat Ron said:

BPA would be Doctson and William Jackson. Surprised Derrick Henry wasn't a choice.

Derrick Henry just missed the cut.  He showed up in the top 20 players on the board at #30 in 12 of the 28 drafts (43%).  I drew the line at players who were in the top 20 still remaining at our pick in 50% of the drafts or better.

A number of boards have him ranked between 45 and 55 which is why he wasn't more often in the top 20 when we picked at #30.  I believe he almost always would have been available to us in round 1, but he was not in the consensus of the best players available.

Does that make sense? 

Surprisingly Ezekiel Elliott fell to us at #30 in 3 of the 28 mock drafts I did.  I hadn't seen that happen for many weeks.  I think the Eagles trade, and perhaps even Josh's move to Redskins have shaken up the board a bit.  With more QBs going off the board early, I'm seeing a few players like Elliott, Treadwell, Coleman falling down to us at #30 more often....

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KB_fan

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4 hours ago, Growl said:

Sterling Shepherd, Williams Jackson III, Karl Joseph, Kevin Dodd..

 

Some of those guys you can pretty safely say won't be there, so I didn't choose them. Doctson for example.

I noticed some of the offensive players falling further in this set of drafts.  Ezekiel Elliott whom I hadn't been able to pick in a mock in at least 3 weeks fell to us 3 of the 28 drafts.  WRs like Treadwell, Coleman and Doctson were also falling farther than normal.  These were generally the most recently-updated boards, so my suspicion is that the trades to shake up #1 and #2 at the top of the draft have shifted some things aroud.  If 4 or 5 QBs are taken in round 1, some offensive players might fall to us.

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KB_fan

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4 hours ago, tiger7_88 said:

I voted for Vernon Butler but only because you didn't give me the ability to vote for Bama center Ryan Kelly.

Sorry, I like Kelly, and apparently so does G'man.  But Kelly didn't quite make the cut.  He was available to us at #30 in 10 of the 28 mock drafts (36%).  I only included players who were among the top 20 left on the board at #30 at least 50% of the time.

He's definitely moved up in the mock drafts.  He's getting picked in the 1st round much more frequently.

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1 minute ago, KB_fan said:

Sorry, I like Kelly, and apparently so does G'man.  But Kelly didn't quite make the cut.  He was available to us at #30 in 10 of the 28 mock drafts (36%).  I only included players who were among the top 20 left on the board at #30 at least 50% of the time.

I still hope we draft Kelly.

And if we do, I'm coming back to see you. :P

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4 hours ago, Nick_81 said:

If Kelly is there... we'll be on the clock for all of 3 seconds, before the pick is in.

I could really see this.  G'man obviously has a crush on him, and his versatility in playing multiple positions on the line is huge for us.

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12 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

I could really see this.  G'man obviously has a crush on him, and his versatility in playing multiple positions on the line is huge for us.

Yeah, I don't understand these guys who say he's a "one position" player... he could easily play back-up at OG.

Dude is a talent and probably the best player on the Bama team last year.  It ain't no coincidence that Derrick Henry got the majority of his yards straight up the gut last year..

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KB_fan

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Using the Composite Board at Fanspeak -- which is the most recently updated (4/22) -- this is the type of list of players showing up as being on the board at our pick #30.  TOUGH CHOICE!   Seriously, with this list, it's incredibly hard to imagine G'man not trading up in the 2nd to grab another of these players before our #62.   Perhaps even a trade up to #50 or #55 could help snag us someone like Sterling Shepard or Derrick Henry.   That would be very cool.   

Or go for someone like Ryan Kelly and hope you can still get Dodd, Ogbah or Bullard 10 picks later - though that would cost us most of our remaining picks!

7 RB  EZEKIEL ELLIOTT - OHIO STATE
22 CB  WILLIAM JACKSON III - HOUSTON
23 WR  JOSH DOCTSON - TCU
24 DE  KEVIN DODD - CLEMSON
25 DT  ANDREW BILLINGS - BAYLOR
27 C  RYAN KELLY - ALABAMA
30 TE  HUNTER HENRY - ARKANSAS
32 DT  CHRIS JONES - MISSISSIPPI STATE
34 OT  GERMAIN IFEDI - TEXAS A&M
37 DT  ROBERT NKEMDICHE - OLE MISS
38 WR  WILL FULLER - NOTRE DAME
39 DT  KENNY CLARK - UCLA
40 DE  JONATHAN BULLARD - FLORIDA
41 DE  EMMANUEL OGBAH - OKLAHOMA STATE
43 S  KEANU NEAL - FLORIDA
44 S  KARL JOSEPH - WEST VIRGINIA
45 CB  KENDALL FULLER - VIRGINIA TECH
46 DE  SHILIQUE CALHOUN - MICHIGAN STATE
47 CB  ARTIE BURNS - MIAMI (FLA.)
49 OT  JERALD HAWKINS - LSU
50 WR  STERLING SHEPARD - OKLAHOMA
51 WR  TYLER BOYD - PITTSBURGH
52 S  DARIAN THOMPSON - BOISE STATE
53 CB  XAVIEN HOWARD - BAYLOR
54 OT  SHON COLEMAN - AUBURN
55 RB  DERRICK HENRY - ALABAMA
 
Vonn Bell shows up at #61,  Cravens at #65 in case folks are interested in knowing how they fit into this list.
 
Here's how picks #1 - 29 shake out in this mock, so you can judge whether it's realistic.  I'm using the free version of fanspeak, however, which has no trades...  So if there are trades into the 1st to snag a QB things could become even more favorable for us. 
1: R1P1
QB CARSON WENTZ
LA RAMS
2: R1P2
QB JARED GOFF
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
3: R1P3
S JALEN RAMSEY
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
4: R1P4
DE JOEY BOSA
DALLAS COWBOYS
5: R1P5
OT LAREMY TUNSIL
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
6: R1P6
OT RONNIE STANLEY
BALTIMORE RAVENS
7: R1P7
DE DEFOREST BUCKNER
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
8: R1P8
OLB MYLES JACK
CLEVELAND BROWNS
9: R1P9
CB ELI APPLE
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
10: R1P10
WR LAQUON TREADWELL
NEW YORK GIANTS
11: R1P11
OT TAYLOR DECKER
CHICAGO BEARS
12: R1P12
DT A'SHAWN ROBINSON
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
13: R1P13
DT SHELDON RANKINS
MIAMI DOLPHINS
14: R1P14
OLB DARRON LEE
OAKLAND RAIDERS
15: R1P15
CB VERNON HARGREAVES III
TENNESSEE TITANS
16: R1P16
DT JARRAN REED
DETROIT LIONS
17: R1P17
OLB NOAH SPENCE
ATLANTA FALCONS
18: R1P18
DE SHAQ LAWSON
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
19: R1P19
WR COREY COLEMAN
BUFFALO BILLS
20: R1P20
QB PAXTON LYNCH
NEW YORK JETS
21: R1P21
ILB REGGIE RAGLAND
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
22: R1P22
G CODY WHITEHAIR
HOUSTON TEXANS
23: R1P23
OT JASON SPRIGGS
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
24: R1P24
CB MACKENSIE ALEXANDER
CINCINNATI BENGALS
25: R1P25
DT VERNON BUTLER
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
26: R1P26
OT JACK CONKLIN
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
27: R1P27
DT AUSTIN JOHNSON
GREEN BAY PACKERS
28: R1P28
WR MICHAEL THOMAS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
29: R1P29
OLB LEONARD FLOYD
ARIZONA CARDINALS
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20 minutes ago, iamhubby1 said:

I refuse to vote in a poll with the absence of Michigan State players. Maybe next time you could do me a solid and throw one in there. I don't care if it is a pity listing. Just give me one. Sheesh. Is that really too much to ask? 

3 Michigan State players showed up from time to time as being among the top 20 players on the board when we picked at #30:  Jack Conklin, Shalique Calhoun and Connor Cook.  But Conklin was usually gone too soon; and Cook and Calhoun usually just missed out on that group of top 20 players. 

I'd be happy if Conklin fell to us and we picked him!  It could have a better chance of happening if there's a run on QBs...

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21 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

3 Michigan State players showed up from time to time as being among the top 20 players on the board when we picked at #30:  Jack Conklin, Shalique Calhoun and Connor Cook.  But Conklin was usually gone too soon; and Cook and Calhoun usually just missed out on that group of top 20 players. 

I'd be happy if Conklin fell to us and we picked him!  It could have a better chance of happening if there's a run on QBs...

 

Take Conklin in the 1st, then trade back up and take Calhoun. Hubby be happy. Isn't that what we all want?

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5 hours ago, Growl said:

Gettleman has spoken openly a number of times about not critiquing players over what they were never asked to do. If this was a case where a player had a skill set that simply didn't fit what we do it would be one thing, but it isn't. You don't draft players over what you project they will be this year.  That Observer article gives the impression Ogbah may be the pick so I don't think it really matters either way.

He also stresses "Fit" he says it a lot like, we draft BPA, based on fit in our scheme. Jackson III, played a little bit of off/zone coverage, so that's not the case here. Some players just aren't cut out for zone.

 

One of Dodd, Ogbah or Spence is highly likely to be available at 30. Pretty sure they are high on out board.

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