2015 Season in Review - Red Zone Scoring (new blog entry)

[KB_fan]

Over at my Panthers Analysis blog, I posted a new entry last night, (edited a bit this morning) which looks at our Red Zone scoring in 2015.

Our scoring efficiency in the Red Zone was one of the biggest areas of improvement between the 2014 and 2015 seasons.  In 2014 the Panthers ranked 26th in the NFL in Red Zone scoring.  In 2015 (including the post-season) we ranked 1st in the NFL in Red Zone scoring %.  Pretty impressive.

Stat Geeks can find the full analysis here:

Here are a few highlights:

First the data on our Red Zone scoring for 2011 - 2015

(Note: my figures for Red Zone attempts may differ slightly from various other sites.  I've used the gamebook detailed drive data to exclude kneel-down drives at the end of the half or 4th qtr when the Panthers were leading and just killing the clock, even though they were in the Red Zone.)

 

And here are game-by-game graphs providing a comparison of our performance in the 2014 and 2015 seasons:

 

In 2014, in 7 of our first 14 games we had a Red Zone Touchdown % of less than 50%.  In a horrid 5 game stretch in mid season (Seattle - Min), we only scored 2 TDs in 9 trips to the Red Zone.  Ouch.  But in general, we were struggling to even get in the red zone in that stretch, let alone score TDs.

In 2015, we only had a RZ TD % under 50% in two games (week 1 and week 4).  After our pivotal win at Seattle in week 6 (where we were 3-for-3 in Red Zone TDs) we never again dropped below 50% in red zone TD scoring.  (It's not displayed in the graphs above, but one other thing I found particularly impressive is that in all but 4 of our 72 trips into the red zone in 2015, we came away with at least a field goal.  50 TDs and 18 FGs in 72 Red Zone trips.  Pretty amazing. )

The Houston, Dallas, at Atlanta and Denver games really stick out when you look at the 2015 data, both for few red zone attempts and few red zone TDs.  Of course the Atlanta & Denver games were our only two losses.  In Dallas we didn't overwhelm on offense, but didn't need to as our defense was so dominant (two pick 6s...).  Against Houston too, our defense helped us win.  It might be interesting to review these 4 games in some detail (both game film, and stats) to identify what factors dampened our offense in these games.

 

Anyway, there you have a brief glimpse of our Red Zone scoring performance in 2015.  Exciting that we get Kelvin back for 2016.  It should only make the Panthers more dangerous and dominant in the Red Zone!

[Saca312]

Nice analysis. Your posts are just fantastic and the stats and data are neat to see. Kelvin Benjamin will just add to our red zone threat next year. I can't wait!

[KB_fan]

It's pretty incredible to see in graphic format (pun intended!) the transformation in the Panthers offense since week 14 of 2014 (vs. New Orleans).

That turn around can probably be attributed to 3 things:

1) Finding a successful Oline combination with Remmers, Norwell, Kalil, Turner.  Obviously we didn't yet have Oher in 2014, but finding solid starters in Remmers, Norwell was huge in allowing our offense to move the ball.  After 2015 and our big decrease in turnovers & sacks, it was pretty shocking & depressing to go back and look at the early 2014 gamebooks and all the sacks and turnovers due to the pressure on Cam.

2) Cam & our WRs getting comfortable with one another.  Our fantastic late-season record under Ron & Cam speaks to the importance of our offense "jelling" - especially given all the turnover we've had at WR in recent years...

3) Tolbert being back in the lineup after injury (he returned for the game against Minnesota).  His stats aren't flashy, but he adds a lot to our offense (Super Bowl fumbles aside, sigh...)

[ctrcat]

^Good point about Tolbert.  The weather and two blocked punts make that Minnesota game an anomaly to say the least. His fumble in SB50 is the saddest, most maddening thing about the game.  

[KB_fan]

June 15th update: 

I normally never read Fantasy Football articles as I've not delved into Fantasy.  (I know, you think I would being a stat geek, but I much prefer following the real deal...)

but I just happened upon an interesting article at NFL.com which talks about red-zone scoring for each team in 2015

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000668857/article/red-zone-fantasy-scoring-efficiency-analysis-nfc

Carolina Panthers

 

Quote

Cam Newton was an absolute monster in the red zone in 2015, throwing 24 touchdowns with no interceptions and converting over 30 percent of his rushing attempts into 10 touchdowns on the ground. Jonathan Stewart got better after a slow start to the season, and led the team in red zone rush attempts with 46. Greg Olsen was Newton's most targeted receiver with 18 looks, four of which he turned into touchdowns. Kelvin Benjamin is likely to command a fair share of targets in 2015, but he was horribly inefficient in 2014, catching just four of his 14 red zone looks for three touchdowns. Carolina could see a dip in red zone plays, though, as the team's impressive 180 from 2015 (most in the league) was the fifth-highest of any team over the last four years. Newton will likely have the lowest chance for regression of the skill position players.

I hadn't realized (or had forgotten) that KB was so inefficient in the Red Zone in 2014.  I really only began my in-depth attention to Panthers stats in 2015, however.  Assuming KB is solid in the Red Zone, and given Funch's seemingly dramatic improvement... we could be looking at another amazing season on offense.

[Snake]

People talk crap about Shula but he has had a lot to do with that as well as all of our staff. Shula should be able to bring even more formations and personal this year with WRs like Hill, Byrd, and Funchess progressing. Baring injuries we just might have one of the best offenses in the NFL next year.