Reviewing Season Openers: 2011 - 2015. The Keys to a Panthers WIN

[KB_fan]

The Carolina Panthers are 2-3 in Week 1 games since 2011.

What can the stats from the Panthers previous Season Openers during the Cam / Rivera era (2011 - 2015) show us in terms of reasons for success or failure?  Some points are obvious... others were a surprise:

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As regular Huddlers will have noticed, while the Panthers have been in training camp gearing up for the start of the season, I've been slacking off, taking a holiday from stat geekery of both the work variety and the fun Panthers variety.  I didn't do any number crunching and didn't open Excel for about 4 weeks, and didn't miss it.  Haven't done any football stats analysis for even longer, maybe about 8 weeks...

So, I was feeling rusty last night, and needing to get on my game in preparation for tonight's season opener...  So, I pulled up all my gamebook data and got to work last night (fueled by jetlag which had me wide awake and unable to sleep at 1 a.m., 2 a.m. or 3 a.m. local time since my body still was thinking it was 5 hours earlier...)

I decided to review all the stats from the Panthers first 5 season openers under Cam and Ron, since 2011, to see if I could spot any patterns and come up with a short list of keys to ensure a WIN tonight.

Here's some of what I found  (I'll be posting multiple entries in this thread to avoid having one massively long entry...., so check back throughout the morning...)

 

1.  An overview of the results and scoring

Here's a look back at the Panthers record in week 1 games from 2011 - 2015. 

 

As I'm sure most Huddlers recall, under Ron Rivera, until last year, the Panthers and Cam had a reputation for starting slow, and Cam had never won a season opener until 2015.  (Derek Anderson was the QB against Tampa in 2014, since Cam was injured).

Hopefully the Panthers (and especially Cam) have gotten the "they always lose the opening game" monkey off their backs and will build on the momentum from 2014 and 2015, getting a third Win.

A few comments:

1) Panthers have shown they can win an Away opener.  [Hmmmm NFL, how come we have only gotten to start the season at home in 1 of 6 games?!?!  I understand now why Ron is so miffed to start the season at Denver even though we're the NFC champs.  Gnashing teeth....]   Granted, playing Denver at Mile High on the night they're celebrating their Super Bowl victory is VERY different than playing the lowly Bucs or Jags down in Florida...  but, still, it's good for confidence that our last 2 seasons have started with away game wins.

 

2) Even if the opponent weren't Denver, which favors a defense-dominated game, we should expect a low scoring, close game:

• 4 of our past 5 season openers have been decided by a touchdown or less.  
• In all 5 previous season openers in the Ron & Cam era, Panthers have scored a total of 78 points, and allowed 79 points - an average of 15-16 points per game scored and allowed.

              Our losses have been by an average score of 13 - 19

              Our wins have been by an average score of  20 - 12

• In every season opener, Panthers have scored considerably less than their season per game scoring average.  Opponents have generally scored less as well (the only exception being 2011) than our season average in points allowed.

• Getting an early lead and holding it has been the pattern in the 2014 and 2015 wins, when the Panthers never trailed.  

 

 

 

Ok, enough about the scores of those games.   In the following posts I'll dig in more to the factors that shaped our wins and losses.   The 2013 game against Seattle is of particular interest since our team that season was excellent and Seattle an incredibly tough opponent - perhaps the closest scenario to this season's opener against Denver.   That game was close and winnable for the Panthers.... read on to see what led to the L, and what led to our Wins (albeit against lesser opponents) in 2014 and 2015.

[2jakefansinva]

Key to winning this game will be in game adjustments by our defense....

from the first series on.

[KB_fan]

2.  Don't despise Field Goals, they may be keys to the win:

In such low-scoring games, field goals and field position taken on added importance.   (I'll address field position separately below.  Let me just say here, I'm REALLY REALLY thrilled DG signed Andy Lee, he and Graham Gano could be the difference makers in tonight's game)

Yes, we all want to see the Panthers score touchdowns, especially in the Red Zone, but field goals have been the difference maker in most of the season openers the past 5 years.

 

Let's make it a little easier to compare the data side by side per year:

First for TOUCHDOWNS:

Panthers and their opponents have each scored 9 TDs in the week 1 games the past 5 seasons.   In 2011 a Special Teams return TD won the game for Arizona.  For the Panthers, a Pick 6 against the Jaguars was key in the 2015 win.  Offensive touchdowns did not provide the margin of difference for any season opener the past 5 years!

 

Now let's look at Field Goals:

In our 2012 loss to the Bucs, and our 2013 excruciatingly close loss to Seattle, the difference was field goals.  They also made the difference in our 2014 win against the Bucs.

And how do you get field goals (other than having a good kicker?), you need good field position.... hold that thought, it will show up below.

First however, I'm going to detour and talk about the importance of RUSHING, RUSHING, RUSHING.... KEEP POUNDING.  It's been a key feature of the Panthers 2014 and 2015 wins, and was a big part of our very close game against Seattle in 2013 too.... but not so much in 2011 or 2012!

[KB_fan]

Just to prove my point that offensive touchdowns and red zone TDs may not make the difference, here's a look at Red Zone scoring in the season openers the past 5 seasons...,

As will be obvious, generally red zone touchdowns were not the difference-makers in either wins or losses.   Seattle was 0 for 3 in 2013 in the Red Zone and still beat the Panthers.   Panthers were only 1 for 3 in the Red Zone in both 2014 and 2015 and still won those games.

Obviously with Denver's defense, we NEED to capitalize on opportunities.  Red Zone TDs will help, but Field Goals could win the game tonight if history repeats itself...

[KB_fan]

3.  RUSHING is the name of the game...:  Keep pounding that Rock!

Jeremy's already alluded to this in his post about ways the Panthers could win.  Our Run game will be a huge key to success against Denver.

It's interesting to look at our past season openers, though, and dig a bit more deeply:

In our week 1 losses we averaged 22 rushing attempts per game for 69 yards per game;  In our week 1 wins, we averaged 34 rushing attempts per game for 109 yards per game.

What's most interesting to me, however, is the difference in percentages of rushing plays as a percent of all offensive plays.  Generally we need a balanced game with about 50% of rushing plays to be successful.  (We were close to beating Seattle... that game came down to turnovers and field position...  Our run game was sizzling and successful.)

(rushing effectiveness ratio is rushing yards % of total yards / rushing plays % of total plays)

Even with fairly modest average gains per carry of 3.4 and 3.0 yards in 2014 and 2015 we won. 

Keep running the ball tonight Panthers!

[KB_fan]

4.  THIEVES AVENUE:  We're counting on you!

Turnovers.  We saw throughout the 2015 season just how beneficial and critical an opportunistic defense and offense were to the Panthers success.

Limit giveaways;  Force takeaways - i.e. have a postive turnover differential

And SCORE after forcing a turnover.

A no brainer, right?  Easier said than done...  Turnovers were obviously a huge NEGATIVE factor for the Panthers against Denver in SuperBowl 50.  We're all still having nightmares of those strip sacks and fumbles.  UGH.

This pattern of Panthers winning when they had a positive turnover differential showed up clearly in a review of the past 5 sreasons' week 1 games:

You can't get much clearer than that.

Positive turnover differentials in 2014 and 2015 = Wins. 

In a nail-bitingly tight loss to Seattle in 2013, the negative turnover differential made a big difference in the game.  Seattle did NOT actually SCORE due to the Panthers turnovers, but the Panthers LOST a good opportunity to score by a turnover at a critical moment.

 

 

[KB_fan]

Here's a closer look at scoring off of turnovers:

Panthers forced few turnovers in 2011 - 2013.  Worse, they couldn't capitalize (score) on the turnovers they forced.

In our wins in 2014 and 2015 the Panthers did better (especially in 2014) on scoring following takeaways.

As noted above, turnovers (give aways) hurt even when the opponents don't capitalize, as in the case of the Seattle game in 2013.

The Panthers fumbled a punt return and lost the ball, giving Seattle another possession at midfield.  No, Seattle didn't score, but if the Panthers had started a drive at midfield, we MIGHT have scored.   A lost scoring opportunity.

The Panthers also fumbled late in the 4th quarter deep in Seattle territory (the Seattle 24).  Seattle was able to run out the clock.  A Panthers TD would have won the game....

Hold on to the ball Panthers!  Use that stick-em liberally tonight!

[KB_fan]

5.  SPECIAL TEAMS - Be Special, You could be the Heroes!  Andy Lee could become everyone's favorite player....

Field Position matters.  Especially in typically low-scoring week 1 games when offenses may not be fully in sync, especially against a very stingy defense when scoring opportunities may be very limited and 1 or 2 field goals could win the game.

• A punt return TD won the game for Arizona in 2011...
• A blocked punt by the Bucs led to a field goal, contributing to their win in 2012...
• A fumble on a punt return cost the Panthers a possession with good starting field position (midfield) against Seattle in 2013...

The Panthers NEED to avoid Special Teams mistakes.  They've cost us a bunch of season openers....

On the other hand, in games where field goals mattered, the Panthers had a positive field position differential in their wins in 2014 and 2015 (helped by turnovers forced by the defense, as well as by special teams).

Panthers starting field position in their losses in 2011, 2012, 2013 averaged at their own 21 yard line.

Panthers starting field position in their wins:  their own 33 yard line.   Those 12 yards make a difference, especially when a FG could win the game....

 

[Randolph Panther]

2013 still sickens me thinking of Williams laying the ball down on the ground as we are getting ready for the go ahead score.

[KB_fan]

6.  DEFENSE.... DEFENSE!

Obviously, we've already touched on the importance of Defense in talking about Thieves Ave and the key role of take aways (forced turnovers), and good field position...

But it's interesting to look at the difference in our defensive stats (sacks, TFLs, QB hurries, Passes defense, etc.) in our season openers from 2011 - 2015:

 

It's pretty self-explanatory really....  Positive differential in pressures and turnovers led to wins against Tampa and the Jags in 2014 and 2015, and the Seattle game in 2013 was almost a toss-up it was so close...

It's an incredibly tough challenge to beat Denver on defense, but I think our front 7 is up to it...  Our defense kept us in the Super Bowl.  We were getting pressure against Manning, and hopefully we can REALLY rattle newbie QB Trevor Siemian.

[Cat]

Very good information here. My optimistic guess is 20-9 Panthers. 

 

[KB_fan]

There are few more interesting points I noticed in reviewing 5 years of week 1 games, a few additional factors that showed up in our wins:

40% or better 3^rd down conversion rate

(Again... the Seattle game COULD have been a win.)

Note too the "Riverboat factor" in 2014 and 2015, with the success on 4th down attempts...

 

Control the clock  (the role of several 10 play  / 5 minute drives)

Clock control was made easier in 2014 and 2015 by the fact that we got early leads and never looked back.

In Arizona we led in time of possession.  Ultimately that game was decided by a punt return TD by Arizona....

 

Ok, that's all from me for now.   Got to get some other stuff done and maybe try to get a nap before the game tonight.

Hopefully the Panthers can succeed in some of these areas I've identified as keys to winning week 1 games in the Cam & Ron era!

[Jimmy]

Need to hold onto a halftime lead and put our foots on their throats in the 4th quarter. 

[mc52beast]

Everyone talks about the usual people we expect to dominate, but don't forget Andy Lee. If he can pin the Denver offense inside the 20 on his punts, I don't see them being able to go the entire field. I think the score will be close;

Panthers 17

Broncos  10