Week 3 - Panthers Loss to Minnesota - misc stats & analysis

[ShutDwn]

17 minutes ago, Navy_football said:

If that's not an "Oh yeah" moment, then I've never seen one. 

when other teams are killing you with the solution to your own problems

[Navy_football]

4 minutes ago, ShutDwn said:

when other teams are killing you with the solution to your own problems

So RR is essentially telling us he knows how to counter pass rush pressure. He just doesn't know how to apply it to his team?

[CarolinaReaper864]

I would like to know the yardage/success rate when we run the spread, including the read option play. Also the percentage of plays we run out of this formation. Also would like to know how many sacks were attributed to this package.

[KB_fan]

8 minutes ago, CarolinaReaper864 said:

I would like to know the yardage/success rate when we run the spread, including the read option play. Also the percentage of plays we run out of this formation. Also would like to know how many sacks were attributed to this package.

Great question, but I'm not sure i know where to find this info.  If someone can direct me to where I can find the raw data, I'll glady give a go at analyzing it...  I am not good at film review or identifying plays & schemes, and don't have time for film review.  

Is there a site anyone knows of which breaks down play type and yards?

If anyone else can help, please chime in!!

[CarolinaReaper864]

Just now, KB_fan said:

Great question, but I'm not sure i know where to find this info.  If someone can direct me to where I can find the raw data, I'll glady give a go at analyzing it...  I am not good at film review or identifying plays & schemes, and don't have time for film review.  

Is there a site anyone knows of which breaks down play type and yards?

If anyone else can help, please chime in!!

I've just subscribed to the NFL replay so I can track the play calling. BUT, I'm a new student to the play theory so it will take me some time to be able to make a complete game chart with pre-snap personnel packages. Just taking baby steps right now.

[KB_fan]

Here's a quick comparison of penalty stats from weeks 1 - 3 last year, versus weeks 1 - 3 this year.   Last year's penalty totals were pretty abysmal too, though this year's totals are slightly worse.   We did start bringing penalty totals down significantly in week 4 last season....

 

I've included the data on opponent 1st downs, and the # and % of opponent 1st downs due to Panthers' penalties because I think it interesting that our penalties are different last year and this year.  Early last season we were giving up quite a few DEFENSIVE penalties that gave our opponent 1st downs.  This year our penalties seem to be more on offense, hurting our own scoring, rather than directly helping our opponents' scoring.  In 2016 we've only allowed our opponents 1 first down due to a penalty, whereas last season, we had allowed 9 in the first 3 weeks.

From Weeks 1 - 3, Panthers have received 26 penalties - 3 more than at this point last season, while our opponents have been called for 5 FEWER penalties than last season - only 16, versus 21 last season.

From weeks 4 - 17 last season the Panthers lowered their penalties to an average of 6 penalties per game (vs. an average of 8 per game in weeks 1 - 3), for 52 yards (vs 67 yards in weeks 1 - 3); and our opponents had nearly identical averages as the Panthers over the final 13 games of the season.

 

Here's the full regular season penalty data from 2015:

You can see that week 2 and week 3 were the season high in terms of penalties against the Panthers.  Hopefully the same will be true in 2016

[The_Rainmaker]

1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

By the way, please feel free to post stats questions here.  I'll try to answer if I can.  (It may be the weekend)

I already have two pending questions re:

1) 2016 Penalties - putting them in context of other seasons / the NFL more broadly

2) 3rd downs:  Number of 3rd & longs... , also decrease in number of 1st downs gained on 1st or 2nd down.

 

But knowing what folks are interested in will help me make sure I'm posting stuff the Huddle wants to see, not just stuff that catches my eye.

I think you should do statistics about formation we line up and success we have with it on 3rd downs and red zone. Specifically 2 TE set and power/zone runs with J-Stew 

[KB_fan]

MMQB has an interesting write up on Mike Zimmer's coaching success in Minnesota and how it contributed to Sunday's win against the Panthers:

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/09/27/nfl-minnesota-vikings-mike-zimmer-kyle-rudolph-sam-bradford

[KB_fan]

Panthers Wire:  Pass Rush not the main problem right now:

http://pantherswire.usatoday.com/2016/09/27/lack-of-pass-rush-not-the-main-problem-for-panthers-in-2016/

Excerpt:

Quote

 

Carolina’s defense hasn’t been that dominant, but they haven’t been bad either.

Entering Week 4, the Panthers have six sacks, which ranks them No. 15 in the NFL. Not a great output, but they have faced three offenses that are designed to get the ball out quickly to avoid the pass rush. Looking back to 2015, where most fans point as being the guideline they’d like to see this season, isn’t really any better.

QB Hits:

	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Total
2016	3	5	3	11
2015	7	5	1	13

Sacks:

	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Total
2016	2	2	2	6
2015	5	1	1	7

 

[KB_fan]

Here you go Panther Nation & fellow Huddlers.  You want to assign blame, here is the most obvious difference that I've found so far between 2015 and 2016 in terms of week 1 - 3 stats. 

Ball Security. 

8 Panthers turnovers in 2016 vs. 2 turnovers in 2015. 

30 points allowed on turnovers in 2016 vs. 0 in 2015.  

 

Here are the gruesome details:

We've scored 76 points in 2016, vs. 71 in 2015

But we've allowed 70 points in 2016 vs. 48 points in 2015.   Subtract 30 points following turnovers, and we only SHOULD have allowed 18 points.

Obviously now you have to look at REASONS for the quadrupled turnovers.  Playing good defenses.  Lots of pressure. Making poor decisions & throws.  I'm not saying it's as "simple" as "hold on to ball"  but... hold on to the ball.

Here's more detail.

• In 2015 we had 0 fumbles in weeks 1 - 3.  Not just 0 fumbles LOST, but 0 fumbles period.
• In 2016 we've had 3 total fumbles, resulting in 3 lost fumbles - all in the San Francisco game.
• In 2015 Cam threw 2 interceptions in weeks 1 - 3.  In 2016 that figure is 5 interceptions.
• Interestingly, we've forced and recovered identical totals of fumbles in 2015 and 2016 to date; and also forced as many interceptions.  So the discrepancy is all on our OFFENSE, 0 on our DEFENSE.

Here's the table:

 

 

[KB_fan]

Andy Benoit of MMQB tweeted out a series of notes re: Panthers vs Vikings today. 

(Focus on Vikings O vs Panthers D)

Here's his twitter

https://twitter.com/Andy_Benoit

Here are a few of the notable tweets:

 

============================================================

And a few Panthers O and Vikings D notes:

This last tweet was in response to a reader question about why KB had no catches...

 

[cardiackat88.]

5 hours ago, Adb6368 said:

Although we only allowed 3 points on those 3 turnovers, it was more of them being able to flip the field-position in their favor each of those times which, in the end, cost us that game. I have a feeling the punt return TD was due to Lee being back up in our own territory and wanting to boom it to get some of the yardage back. Instead, he out-kicked his coverage and the rest is history. Without those 3 turnovers, this would have been a win for us. 

Also, it doesn't help that Gano missed another field goal that would have put us up 2 scores and, again, flipped field-position in their favor.

Don't forget the screen touchdown called back for a hold.

[KB_fan]

James Bradberry Stats vs Stefon Diggs:

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/James-Bradberry-playing-prominent-role/e3f812b5-ab0c-418a-851d-e4b2f0ba9c8d

Quote

The rookie was effective against Diggs, limiting him to four receptions on seven targets for 40 yards. In the Vikings' previous games, Diggs totaled 103 and 182 yards.

 

Here's a bit more detail on Diggs' season stats:

 

I LIKE IT. 

 

[KB_fan]

Good game analysis article at Panthers.com  talks a bit about several of the key moments in field position in the first half that kept the Vikings in the game:

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/What-We-Learned-Panthers-vs-Vikings/

Quote

The Panthers were in control but never in command against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, a fact that head coach Ron Rivera said eventually cost his team.

"We missed opportunities early in the game that would have allowed us to dictate," Rivera said. "We've got to put points on the board when we have the opportunity to."

The Panthers pounced early with 10 points on their first two drives, and they continued to control the game for a while but not on the scoreboard. A holding penalty on a Minnesota punt following by another hold on a nice run backed Carolina up to its own 2-yard line and set up the Vikings for a safety, but the Panthers still had a chance to extend their lead.

Starting from their own 10-yard line after the defense came up big following a free kick, the Panthers advanced close to midfield and appeared to take a 17-2 only to have a flag negate a touchdown. They flipped field position though and had a 54-yard field goal attempt on their next drive for a 13-2 lead, but when it missed the mark the Vikings were back in control of field position. That allowed them to soon after return a punt for a touchdown, and that allowed them to head to halftime trailing only 10-8 and therefore stick to their game plan.

Eventually, the Vikings' pass rush got going, their offense pieced together a couple of drives, and the opportunities for Carolina dried up.

I'll be working on my "game at a glance" drive chart tables tonight... it's very striking how Panthers lost momentum in spite of some long drives, and how some Penalties forced us back against our own end zone... 

I'm going to try and chart Panthers drive outcomes by starting field position all season.