NextGen Stats: With one of the lower expected completion percentage, Cam has exceeded such this year thus far

[Saca312]

A fun new stat that’s come up from NextGen stats is expected completion percentage. Essentially, this accounts for a whole host of variables to create a predicted completion percentage. Not many QBs are usually able to exceed their expected completion percentage, nor are many continually having some of the lowest expected completion percentages in the league.

Cam is an exception. And this year, he’s doing exceptional.

Here’s Matt Harmon’s take on this:

Here’s the twitter thread in text form:

“Cam Newton's #NextGenStats expected completion % is 62.8% which is up from prior seasons but still 8th lowest in the NFL this year. 

However, unlike previous years he's outperforming it by 3.1% (6th best among QBs). Carolina has skeleton of a good pass game but needs big plays.

This is the company Cam keeps among the top-10 best completion % above expectation, per #NextGenStats. His expected completion rate (xCOMP%) is 3rd lowest. 

Still asked to hit a ton of high-degree of difficulty throws with few over the middle passes. He's been hitting them though.

A finer point, Cam Newton's #NextGenStats expected completion % by season and ranks among QBs:

2016: 54.6% - lowest

2017: 62.1% - 11th lowest

2018: 62.8% - 8th lowest

Metric perfectly shows how few QBs have been tasked with making more high-degree of difficulty throws than Cam.

All of this is available for free on the NGS public site, by the way. Cam was one of the players I was most interested in studying when completion probability was in development while I was at NFL. Now I'm working with the same data as you all.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2017/all”

 

[billionairemonk]

excellent post. Cam had a great pass efficiency rating during his Heisman season at Auburn, so he has the ability.

http://www.heisman.com/articles/passing-efficiency-and-the-heisman/

i'm glad he's on the Panthers, but imagine if he had been drafted by an Andy Reid team or worked with Sean McVay or had receivers that could actually gain separation; he would dominate the league to the point where it wouldn't be fair.  i feel like the Panthers have been given a Ferarri, but they don't take it on the highway for fear of getting bugs and road grime on it.

[iamhubby1]

1 hour ago, billionairemonk said:

excellent post. Cam had a great pass efficiency rating during his Heisman season at Auburn, so he has the ability.

http://www.heisman.com/articles/passing-efficiency-and-the-heisman/

i'm glad he's on the Panthers, but imagine if he had been drafted by an Andy Reid team or worked with Sean McVay or had receivers that could actually gain separation; he would dominate the league to the point where it wouldn't be fair.  i feel like the Panthers have been given a Ferarri, but they don't take it on the highway for fear of getting bugs and road grime on it.

 

    First; Thanks for the find. Cool info there. One of the reason we all come here. To get information we are too lazy to find on our own. You sir, are the tops.

 

    So, does this mean someone out there thinks Cam is pretty good? Now we just have to convince the rest of his own fan base. Still have to wonder why Panther OCs have to make it so hard on the kid. Just imagine what Cam could do with a competent OC? 

[JakeDel5674]

If Cam can continue to progress like this we should be fine on offense. But, again, as it's been said numerous times, that's the side of the ball we're not worried about. 

[billionairemonk]

8 hours ago, iamhubby1 said:

So, does this mean someone out there thinks Cam is pretty good?

i'm as big of a cam supporter as anyone.  i feel for the guy because he's a generational talent who was drafted by a coach whose philosophy is incongruous with his spectacular abilities.

[mc52beast]

It’s amazing that there are “fans” comparing him to Blake Bortles. 

With the right coach and competent receivers Cam would be a top 3 qb