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2021 NFL mock draft 2.0: Analytics-based picks to maximize wins
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Sure it does, maybe not every position and not every draft. You have to admit the hit rate goes down the further in the draft you get. Would you more readily find a generational talent at the #2 pick or #19 pick? High picks are considered "busts" if they doesn't pan out, whereas guys drafted later don't have that level of scrutiny upon them. Different expectation levels. If Styles does indeed go #2, I already listed the rarefied air that he would be in. Maybe he doesn't set the League on fire, but my gut feeling is he does. Again, you don't take an off-ball LB #2 if he is just a 'really good' player. -
To illustrate my point, I watched (and commented on the Huddle) that Rozeboom would often wait a full second (or close to it) before taking his first step. I assume that he probably had issues with false steps, a faulty practice that can take an ILB out of the gap completely. Watch Luke and you see a step with the snap, and rarely was it a false step. Rozeboom may have had 100 tackles (speculating) but initial contact was 2-3 yards on the defensive side of the ball. Luke's 100 tackles were made 1-2 yards from the LOS. Over the course of a year, Luke was much more productive (more fumbles, fewer long gainers, more OL penalties, fewer first downs, etc) that Rozeboom, but on the stat sheet, they both had 100 tackles. In fact, Rozeboom's inefficiency kept him on the field more (more first downs, fewer OL penalties, turnovers, and punts) so he should have MORE tackles. I would like to see stats that break down those things. For example again, Josh Norman was slow--4.68 or so at CB. However, his anticipation speed was incredible. He made as many plays as a 4.4 CB. I had one coach (college--later became the head coach at WCU) tell me that slower players have to use their brains more to still be around. Elite athletes can just get by on their physical superiority. He added, "Rarely does a football player run full speed. Most of the time, they are not, so the 40 time is misleading stat. Smart players overcome shortcomings--when the elite athlete becomes average (slows with age, advances in level of competition) they struggle against smarter (football IQ) competition. -
Obviously tongue in cheek hyperbole. But we do not need a first round RB to compete for a championship. We need intelligent roster building. That to me is the complete opposite of intelligent roster building because it is a prime resource at a devalued plug and play position when we have needs across the defense.
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