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2021 NFL mock draft 2.0: Analytics-based picks to maximize wins

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And remember, my analytics-based mock is based solely on a contextual, data-driven model that aims to do one thing: maximize each team's potential to win as many games as possible in 2021, and only trades that have actually occurred are included. So, before you read any further, take note:

I am NOT attempting to predict or divine what teams will ACTUALLY DO on draft day.




Carolina Panthers
Trey Lance
Trey Lance
North Dakota State · QB · Sophomore (RS)
Christian McCaffrey's skill set has a big impact on helping shorten Lance's learning curve.

That said, I love a good hypothetical moment, so let's play with the model in a world with trades. The Panthers could shake things up league-wide. Let's say a QB like Jimmy Garoppolo or even Sam Darnold were to come available at a reasonable enough (or even favorable) cost, and the Panthers were to go that route. If they don't end up needing a QB on draft day, they'd match up with a corner here -- and they could also leverage another team's desire to snag a QB prospect in the first round into a nice gain. In other words, Carolina doesn't have to acquire an elite-level QB to drive a big change in their potential.



Edited by ladypanther
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Wish super intelligent woman were the role models for them, nothing sexier imo. She has always brought a different angle/view on the topic discussion and one of the few I will give attention too. I just said Kwity Paye should be a dark horse top 7 pick and big brain agrees..

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I'm a fan of numbers, as an IT analyst you kinda gotta be.  Not sure that in the case of the Carolina Panthers it needed much analysis or data to see that our most glaring need, in a world of wins and losses, was a QB.

I do find it interesting that moneyball says the Jets can win with Darnold and the most important thing they can do with the #2 pick in the draft is take a tackle.  Following that up, the 49'ers take . . . a QB?  They have a QB who went 13-3 in 2019.  In that system.

Computer modeling is never perfect . . . fortunately for us humans.

What I would find interesting is to see the data on how previous draft prospects fared in relation to their pre-draft computed "value". 

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