Last 5 seasons

[panther4life]

2 minutes ago, stan786 said:

Oh I agree, I dont think there is a perfect way to find a guy to get you to the Super Bowl, if we feel we need to trade up to get a guy our Front Office believes in I say do it. Reich and Rhule did the whole be patient and develop late round guys/free agents in Indy/Carolina thing and got canned because it didnt work, plenty of coaches have swung at first round QBs and gotten fired because of it. Everything is going to be a toss up.

My one stance is you should always be taking swings on QBs until you find one that can get you a Super Bowl, I commend the Eagles for taking Hurts in the second and eating the criticism while they had Wentz on his rookie deal. You keep looking no matter the situation until you know you have one for a fact.

I just think people are over valuing picks that don’t land you a QB.

Even if you landed the 3 best non QB’s in the draft the last 3 seasons, those players still don’t equate to the Value of a  Patrick Mahomes,Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, etc.

I could see why people would think the idea is outlandish if I were suggesting this to move up for a Kenny Pickett type prospect but these guys are much closer to the aforementioned names than him imo.

[stan786]

I just wanted to look at some more historical data on Super Bowl Wins and QBs just because its scratching an itch today.

Used 1994 as the cutoff as that was when the Salary Cap was implemented

There have been 344 QBs drafted since 1994 and 78 of them have been First Round Picks.

(78/344) = 22.67%

Of QBs drafted or signed as udfas since 1994 there have been 26 QBs to appear in the Super Bowl and 13 different QBs that have won one.

Of the 26 QBs that appeared in a Super Bowl 16 of them were first round picks.

(16/26) = 61.54%

Of the 13 QBs that won a super Bowl 8 of them were first round picks.

(8/13) = 61.54%

for 23% of QBs to contribute to 62% of both winners and appearances is pretty insane.

Edited February 24, 2023 by stan786

[stan786]

8 minutes ago, stbugs said:

It’s also bad to only look at SB winners. Just look recent history and it’s Mahomes/Brady and a couple one time winners.

When you only pick winners, it’s like saying Allen, Herbert, Burrow and Lawrence were bad picks because they haven’t won but real life wise those are the guys (along with Mahomes) that almost every other team would love to have for the future or maybe Hurts.

This is very true it does ignore a number of very good QBs who may not have made a Super Bowl but consistently won. Having to define bust and success would be pretty subjective but i'm sure there are stats out there. Just interesting stuff.

[SCO96]

None of us have a problems with drafting a QB in round 1. We just have issues on how it's done. No team has ever traded up into the top 5 to get a QB and won a Super Bowl with him. I'm sure it may happen one day. You may have a team that is a QB away and they get a guy to put them over the top. What you haven't seen, and will not see, is a bad team with weaknesses on both sides of the ball given away multiple picks in multiple years for a QB and win a SB. Those missing picks will prevent the team from fill the other holes and putting enough talent around him to win.

If we gave up a #1 pick in 2025, the next time we get a #1 pick (2026), the rookie we drafted in 2023 would be eligible for a contract negotiation after the end of his 3rd season, 2025. This will have a major impact on the salary cap should the team opt to extend him at that time.

 

[stan786]

6 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

None of us have a problems with drafting a QB in round 1. We just have issues on how it's done. No team has ever traded up into the top 5 to get a QB and won a Super Bowl with him. I'm sure it may happen one day. You may have a team that is a QB away and they get a guy to put them over the top. What you haven't seen, and will not see, is a bad team with weaknesses on both sides of the ball given away multiple picks in multiple years for a QB and win a SB. Those missing picks will prevent the team from fill the other holes and putting enough talent around him to win.

If we gave up a #1 pick in 2025, the next time we get a #1 pick (2026), the rookie we drafted in 2023 would be eligible for a contract negotiation after the end of his 3rd season, 2025. This will have a major impact on the salary cap should the team opt to extend him at that time.

 

Giants technically traded from 4 to 1 for Eli giving a future first to do it. But that's not from outside the top 5 specifically I understand, but its in the spirit of what it would cost us to get up to 3 or maybe 5 (5 would probably be cheaper).

Edited February 24, 2023 by stan786

[Sgt Schultz]

30 minutes ago, stan786 said:

Giants technically traded from 4 to 1 for Eli giving a future first to do it. But that's not from outside the top 5 specifically I understand, but its in the spirit of what it would cost us to get up to 3 or maybe 5 (5 would probably be cheaper).

That was actually a trade of players, not a trade of draft picks.  San Diego drafted Eli and the Giants drafted Rivers, with the pre-arranged deal to swap the players.  A rather unique situation. 

[stan786]

Just now, Sgt Schultz said:

That was actually a trade of players, not a trade of draft picks.  San Diego drafted Eli and the Giants drafted Rivers, with the pre-arranged deal to swap the players.  A rather unique situation. 

Yeah thats why i threw in the technically hahaha. Would feel weird to toss it out to me though as it was done on draft day and at the end of the day the value was much like every other draft day trade.

[Sgt Schultz]

8 minutes ago, stan786 said:

Yeah thats why i threw in the technically hahaha. Would feel weird to toss it out to me though as it was done on draft day and at the end of the day the value was much like every other draft day trade.

It may have happened before in the history of the NFL, but I haven't seen it.  There are certainly backroom deals, but because Manning said trees would tap dance before he played for the Chargers, this one was out in the open.

In the end, everybody landed on their feet, which is a minor miracle.  The Chargers didn't win a championship with Rivers, or even get to one, but they got closer than they would have without him and probably got closer than they would have with Manning the way things evolved.

[stan786]

Just now, Sgt Schultz said:

It may have happened before in the history of the NFL, but I haven't seen it.  There are certainly backroom deals, but because Manning said trees would tap dance before he played for the Chargers, this one was out in the open.

In the end, everybody landed on their feet, which is a minor miracle.  The Chargers didn't win a championship with Rivers, or even get to one, but they got closer than they would have without him and probably got closer than they would have with Manning the way things evolved.

Yeah I remember there was talk of Manning sitting out the year and then re-entering the draft the following season, it was pretty wild watching that play out live. I'll never forget Eli's face when they originally called his bluff, he was FURIOUS. Such a funny Draft thinking back on it.

[Sgt Schultz]

3 minutes ago, stan786 said:

Yeah I remember there was talk of Manning sitting out the year and then re-entering the draft the following season, it was pretty wild watching that play out live. I'll never forget Eli's face when they originally called his bluff, he was FURIOUS. Such a funny Draft thinking back on it.

It was one of those story lines that no fiction writer could make up. 

[Mr. Scot]

Reminds me: I remember for a couple of years there Mike Florio kept writing columns trying to get the expected top player in the draft to sit out their last season. Pretty clear case of a guy who's supposed to be covering the news trying to be in the news.

Nobody took the bait.

Florio is, of course, still an ass.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Mr. Scot

[stan786]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Reminds me: I remember for a couple of years there Mike Florio kept writing columns trying to get the expected top player in the draft to sit out their last season. Pretty clear case of a guy who's supposed to be covering the news trying to be in the news.

Florio is, of course, an ass.

Yeah I was going to say I remember this being like a yearly discussion for the first overall pick during that time period and its faded away a bit these recent years. Maybe it has something to do with the simplified Rookie Contracts now as well?

[Mr. Scot]

3 minutes ago, stan786 said:

Yeah I was going to say I remember this being like a yearly discussion for the first overall pick during that time period and its faded away a bit these recent years. Maybe it has something to do with the simplified Rookie Contracts now as well?

Boy, was that a no-brainer idea.

Can't believe the NFL took so long to institute it. You'd think guys who are as furiously protective of their money as NFL owners are would have had that particular light bulb come on a long time ago.