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Speaking of going for it on fourth down...not a bad write-up

Cape Fear Cat

By Cape Fear Cat,
in Carolina Panthers

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Overfitting data makes me sad.

I'm not very knowledgeable on the subject but wouldn't there be little to no way of verifying whether the model's predictive performance is valid or not due to very little actual results (real football played by the predictions in the model) to validate the predictions with? If so does that mean this can't be determined to be overfitting?

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Thorrez Collaborator

Thorrez

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First article makes a pretty weak argument. Basically implies it only works because his offense can just overwhelm inferior teams. Most NCAA games are major talent mismatches, you don't see that in the NFL. There is definitely something to it, but the arguments in that article are weak.

That is very easy to factor in. You do not use the same static number for every game (read the advancednflstats article for details). Against a inferior team you can expect maybe 80% success of 4th and 2. Against ateam of your standard maybe 50% or against the nations best defense 25%. Just factor it in the formula and you know.

Actually, if an offensive coordinator does not show a graph like this to the head coach (based of course on the current opponent of course, and also possible revised at half time) I think they are not doing there job correctly. Hey, put it up in the locker room so that the players can see it as well (to get rid of the risk of "why did the stupid coach go for it on 4th and 2, we are busting our ass off and he is pissing it away"-thinking which is a, large, factor when not calling a game in the classic manor).

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Thorrez Collaborator

Thorrez

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Theres a big difference in gettin 1st down on 4th &2 at the 40 and gettin a TD from the same...

Yes it is. But, you are missing the point as that is acounted for. Read the advancednflstats article for a much better explaination than I can give you :).

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j2sgam Collaborator

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Yes it is. But, you are missing the point as that is acounted for. Read the advancednflstats article for a much better explaination than I can give you :).

Read the 1st article through, didnt get to that one. Posted that half drunk from my ipod, more in response to the Bears game FG posts...

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