Billy Goat

I'm not saying he's a dud, I'm saying the data points to him being a dud. If they've carried out 100s of tests and all the low scoring players haven't been a success then everything I said is true, he'll either be an outlier or a failure like the rest of the low scoring players. Nothing controversial about that.

Well that seems wrong. It's not an IQ test and everyone who has scored low hasn't succeeded in the NFL. If Stroud really got a low score (which seems accurate at this point given his answer) then he'll be an outlier. The data they've collected thus far points to Stroud being a dud.

Reddit managed to screw over Wall Street with the GameStop shorting. These odds moving is small potatoes in comparison. Really nothing to see here.

The person who started this rumour has probably cashed out and is laughing counting his money.

I thought we'd try and trade down from 39 as well but after hearing Fitterer say the sweet spot of the draft is between 20 and 45 I'm not so sure anymore. I suppose it depends on how the board looks and how many of their 20-45 prospects are left.

Scheme is a big part. If I remember correctly PJ Walker had the quickest release time of all QBs during his run of starts last year. Is that because he's a great QB with poise and calmness in the pocket or because they set it up for him to get the ball out quickly?

Yeah it's not like it's a left field pick. We're picking the general consensus best prospect and QB in the draft. I think it would be more worrying if they decided to go in another direction out of fear of the unknown and settled for potentially good (Stroud) instead of potentially great (Young).

I suppose they've got client confidentiality to adhere to so can't say much apart from generic statements like "every did well".

That seems like nonsense considering the owner/creator of the test said they all scored well this year. Not to mention you'd probably have to be close to brain-dead to only get 18%.

If I was the Texans and had all those picks this year and next I'd be looking to trade out of two for another 1st next year. Fill out the roster this year and draft a QB next year. They'll probably suck enough this year for another top 10 pick in 2024 and they will have 3 first rounders. More than enough ammo to move around and get a QB next year.

A trade is never happening with those picks on offer in that scenario. I don't think they see Stroud and Young as equals so the incentive to trade down would have to be something too good to refuse, like an extra 2nd/3rd rounder this year and a 1st next year. The Texans won't do that.

In the early mocks Levis was 2nd QB off the board in a number of them. A few had Stroud dropping to us at 9. A good combine coupled with us hiring Reich and moving up to 1 (along with the Reich prototype theory) propelled him to first pick status. Maybe it's just a case of the hype falling away.

A team open to trading down from 2 aren't going to be trading up to 1. The only way Young ends up in Houston is if we pass on him, which at this point seems very unlikely.

Working link. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/17/commanders-snyder-nfl-draft-rumors-peter-king-fmia/?cid=fmiatw

He has a 41% completion rate under pressure, which is why this statistic seems a bit vague. If it's their completion percentage when a blitz is called it's not really telling you anything if you don't know if a defender(s) actually reached the QB or if the pocket collapsed.

What does "when he got blitzed" even mean? What if a blitz was called but nobody got home and the OLine held up? We know his completion percentage under pressure is in the low 40s. Seems a bit of a useless statistic if accuracy in a collapsing pocket is a lot worse.

Is it enough though? We know McCown is one judging by the scouting video he did but he'll have little say. It's assumed Reich is one based on the fact he's the correct size and weight. Most reports seem to suggest Fitterer, Tepper and Brown are in the Young camp. Ultimately I think there's more big hitters in the Young camp than the Stroud camp and that's what has/will swing the decision.

Different test. Fields scored high in the AIQ test, not the S2.

By the same token his college playing weight most likely isn't going to be his playing weight in the NFL. If you look at Wilson and Murray they've both gained at least 10lbs since entering the league. Wilson has at times been 20lb heavier than his combine weight.

I saw a clip of Breer on The Herd yesterday. He said at this point it's "highly unlikely" Bryce Young falls to the Texans.

The two 2024 1st rounders is a good point. They might like Young this year, but they have the flexibility to be able trade up and pick the best QB next year if they want to.

Pretty much this. Give up your star receiver to get to 1 just to trade back and take a player you could've got at a spot where you wouldn't need to include your receiver in any trade. That's not happening.

There was some interesting info in The Athletic piece on it back in February. This for example The company recently looked at 27 starting quarterbacks. (Some of the older veterans like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers had entered the league before S2 began testing in 2015 and there are no scores for them; Brees took the test while already playing in the NFL.) Of that group, 13 had a career passer rating above 90. The average S2 score of those players was the 91st percentile. Those with passer ratings below 90 had much lower test results. “Those 14 guys, the average score was in the low 60s,” Ally said.

That statistic about no low scoring prospect from the last 7 years making it is quite damning. If Stroud did perform badly in the test than I can imagine that all but rules him out of being our pick.

There was some speculation from Peter King yesterday that if they missed out on Young they could skip drafting a QB at 2 and use their other 1st rounder and 2nd rounder to move up and pick a QB.