AU-panther

If they stay put at #1 it's probably pretty definitive at this point who they are taking, regardless of what they are saying. Now the part that might still be debatable, is what would it take to move off of that #1 pick.

but you will go with QBR which has absolutely no eye test component at all...

So what you are saying is as a fan you have no idea if a player is good or not because you don't know the play either?

Beaded in what? Exactly how is QBR better than pff grade? QB throws a terrible pass that bounces off of the defenders chest, WR catches the deflection, makes 4 defenders miss and scores a TD. QBR grades goes up for the QB. PFF grades goes down for the QB. I prefer that trash. QB throws a check down to a wide open RB that makes a spectacular 40 yard run for a TD or QB makes a perfect 40 yard pass to a WR while under pressure, which is more impressive? QBR views them the same, PFF does not. Which one sounds like trash now?

QBR is a stat based metric that doesn’t isolate the QBs play. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-draft-profile-c-j-stroud-ohio-state

Being blitzed isn’t the same being pressured. His line could have picked up the blitz. Go look up his grade under pressure and how it compares to the other top QBs. With that being said, I’m not against stroud, just when using stats you need context.

but at 39 you are probably looking for someone to contribute this year and you just spent money on two guys to contribute this year. Add in the fact a lot of people consider this WR class weak, if we draft one, I expect it to be later. Here again, nothing is set in stone, just my opinion. Also if you are going to look at who is on contract at two years you just can't look at the WRs. How many 3-4 DEs on contract in two years? How many LBs on contract in two years? Not really loaded their either.

True, and that is something they might have took into account when trying to decide where to spend money in free agency. You could counter that argument and say the TE class is really deep so why did we spend in free agency, but to be honest with a potential rookie QB, I always thought we would look for experienced skill positions.

It's impossible to predict what a front office might do during the draft, but you can look at free agency and get a pretty good idea. Of our free agents we singed 4 with decent contracts that were either TEs or WRs: Thomas ($3.325m APY), Hurst ($7.25m), Chark ($5m), and Theilen ($8.33m). To put those contracts in perspective only 20 players have higher APY than Thomas, those are get on the field contracts. 2023 NFL Free Agents and Free Agency (overthecap.com) Like I said earlier, nothing is guaranteed, maybe some WR or TE with great value falls, but If I had to guess I'm thinking DE, LB, or CB at 39. From a lot of reports this is a very strong TE class, we might decide we can get good value later. By a lot of reports the WR class is rather thin, I could see us not drafting one at all, or taking more of a project guy later.

I really don't see a TE this early. Teams usually don't spend early picks on positions that they just addressed in Free agency. Same could be said about WRs. Although this a deep TE class so I wouldn't mind one later. I'm thinking more of an edge or 3-4 DE, possibly a CB, decent draft for those. Someone like: Adetomiwa Adebawore Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com Emmanuel Forbes Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

but even then you are talking 6/11, which is only a little over 50% chance of people a homerun. Fact is finding a great QB isn't easy, no matter where you pick. Alse the chance of both Stroud and Young being great is rather slim. This is why I think it might be somewhat misguided to focus so much on Young's size. People are acting like both are automatically going to be great so just take the bigger QB. You have to do to an honest assessment of their chances of being really good. Do you want the QB that you think has the better chance of being good, but maybe a smaller chance of getting hurt occasionally or the guy you think has less of a chance of being good but maybe less of a chance of getting hurt? Now if you truly think Stroud has as good of a chance of getting a homerun then of course you take the bigger guy.

Young has some very good metrics, and he probably has the best tape of all 4 over an extended time, but one stat that does concern me a little bit is that completion percentage on the out routes. That deeper out route is one of those throws that separates NFL QBs from college QBs. At the pro level the difference between bad defenses and good defenses is a lot less than at the college level, if you can't successfully throw to a certain part of the field, you are making it a lot easier on the opposing defense. I'm not saying its going to keep him from being successful, just something to factor in, you can't just look at stats.

as opposed to those coaches who admit to wanting low character dumb players.

Thats pretty much how things ran while Rhule was here, but it just so happened those football people made bad decisions. People like to spin this narrative that he is some controlling owner who is making all of the personnel decisions but for the most part that really hasn't seem to be the case. This idea that he is like Snyder or Jones doesn't really have merit.

But arm is such a big part of it I hate even making that comparison even as a “lite” version. It would be like calling Levis Cam lite without the running ability.

agree. I can't guarantee we would have offered the same package to go to #2 as we did to go to #1 but I would guess it would have been close.

Down and distance often changes where players play. On obvious passing downs you might see Brown move to the middle and someone like YGM play end.

or you could look at it as if you if were drafting a QB to start early, for example Young or Stroud you would have gone cheaper as your backup.

He said three 1st round picks were never in play for teams within the top 5. Logic tells you that for those teams outside of the top 5 it would have took more draft capital or in our case a pretty good player.

It's a very common assessment of him. Most fans are limiting their opinion to what they saw during the game vs Georgia. Let's be honest, most people around here that is probably the only entire game they have watched of Strouds. Was the Georgia game an anomaly or a glimpse of what he can become.

Before the trade I was thinking it would take something like our 2023 1st and 2nd, 2024 1st and 2nd, and 2025 1st to move all the way to #1. Turns out we gave them 2023 1st and 2nd, 2024 1st, 2025 2nd, and D.J. Moore. Under that scenario D.J.'s value was basically a 2025 1st and giving them a 2025 2nd instead of a 2024 2nd. According to an article by Albert Breer that was recently linked by Mr. Scot they looked at D.J. as basically a replacement for the 2025 1st, which pretty close to what I was thinking. Should we have been able to get more for DJ? Would he get more on the open market than a 2025 1st? Also, when the report came out that we turned down two 1st round picks for Burns the main argument against it was that they are future year 1st and therefore valued one round lower for each year. Under that logic we got a 3rd round value for Moore. Also, that same article said there was talk that it would take 2 1st and 2 2nds to move to a pick in the top 5. From pick 5 to pick 9 is about 350 points which is a later 2nd. So that 3rd round value isn't too far off. Could we have traded Moore during the season and used that draft capital to move up to 5? 2023 NFL Trade Value Chart (drafttek.com) In regard to Moore's value you also have to look at his contract, a player's contract heavily influences their trade value. A good player on a rookie contract is worth a lot more than a player you have to sign to a mega contract. While Moore isn't on a rookie contract, he still has a very favorable contract. He signed a long-term deal with us so we have already paid the signing bonus. They are mostly just responsible for their yearly salary. Roughly $50m for 3 years which is a bargain for #1 receiver. When it comes to QBs you usually have to overpay in the draft, and if we find our franchise QB we will all be happy with the deal, but if I think Chicago did a good job in what they received. They might miss on all of the picks but that is irrelevant at this point.

All 29 times that NFL teams traded up to draft a quarterback (espn.com) in hindsight maybe but here are 29 times teams thought they were so sure they were willing to not only trade up but often overpay and as you can see they were often wrong. Even when it looks like they were right, like Houston trading up for Watson (ignoring the off-field issues) if they hadn't traded up, they would have kept their following year pick they could have drafted Allen with. I'm not saying I'm totally opposed to "going and getting your guy" but there is a risk/reward aspect you have to look at. Fact is none of these guys are sure things. Also, Cam had a lot better risk/reward profile because we didn't have to trade up for him. If we would have been wrong, we were not out any future picks. What's the maximum you would give up to go to 1, I think there is a point that we would all say, "no thank you".

or trading away Baker and having to settle for Allen the following year. Works both ways. and honestly Cam was different, we didn't have to trade up. I'm taking about the amount of risk that you have to incur when you package picks. For example, the Rams traded up for Goff. They could have stayed put and hoped Wentz or Goff fell to them, if they didn't, they could have used one of their second-round picks that they traded away for a QB like Hackenburg, who didn't work out, but then they still have their first the following year to pick Mahomes.

Which scenario would you prefer, or do you think has the best chance of producing a franchise QB for the organization? First of all, let's assume QB1(we will say Stroud) you have to trade up to #1 to get. Cost of trade up will be this year's 1st and 2nd, plus next year's 1st and 2nd and 2025 1st. Let's assume QB4(we will say Levis) has a good chance of making it to #9. So, what is more likely to produce a franchise QB? Stroud this year, or Levis and Hooker (or Tanner) this year, a 1st and 2nd round QB next year and a 1st round QB in 2025? Basically, Stroud or 5 swings at other 1st and 2nd round QBs in this year and future years. Also, if you want to make the argument you wouldn't draft QBs in back-to-back years you could draft Levis this year, then a different QB in 2025 and 2027 and you have still wasted the same number of draft picks as trading up for Stroud. Fans and organizations tend to fall in love with one guy and then convince themselves that they are 100% correct on that guy but history tells us otherwise. I've been saying for years that you have to gamble when it comes to QBs but I don't know how much. Will be very interesting to see how it plays out.

Stroud didn’t look like “Stroud vs Georgia” for most of his career either. Was that a bit of an anomaly or a glimpse of what you can expect in the future?