45catfan

Yeah, when they stopped putting COVID-19 patients in nursing homes was a good start. Still, they've come a VERY long way.

As with all deep questions, it requires a complex answer and I obviously don't have all of the insight. First and foremost we need to look at the data, sift through the garbage and politically motivated. There's enough studies being done that the picture is getting clearer now. Then it's a risk/reward scenario reopening the economy. Have guidelines that people should follow. However, lock down didn't stop the virus, but we surely don't want to revisit the early days of the pandemic either. Ultimately I think we keep awareness in the forefront and reopen the economy is the best road for going forward. The virus will either burn itself out or we will get a vaccine. In the meantime, we can't keep the country buttoned up any longer. If it gets out of control again, unfortunately another stint in lock down may be required, but it probably worth the risk than staying in lock down indefinitely. If you are high risk, TAKE PRECAUTION! That has been and still is the main focus. Infection rate and death rates are up for debate, but what data has unanimously shown is elderly people with pre-existing conditions should be the most cautious as the demographic most likely to succumb to the virus if contracting it at approximate 90% of all fatalities.

In SC, the number of cases have gone up, but the daily number of deaths have stayed fairly constant averaging about 6. That being said the mortality rate is slowly coming down. Understand, we have a large sample size here and for the measuring stick being moved in any meaningful way is significant. We are down to 4.0% mortality of positive tests from 4.6% before widespread testing started a few weeks ago. Again, when dealing with a sample this big (13,000 positive tests now) shrinking 0.6% is a big deal.

This is an interesting article that describes why the initial calculations were so dire and why they keep get revised. As I've been saying for a while, the huge 'x' factor are those not tested that have had this virus and still are contracting it. To use an analogy: it's like an iceberg...the tested are all you see above the waterline, the unknown is how large is the unseen portion? No doubt this is worse than a really bad flu season, but it isn't the Spanish flu either. Likely, this will like a more serious Hong Kong flu. Before you poo that idea, remember people weren't required to get tested and how relatively lax the response was to that pandemic. Therefore, the numbers are almost assuredly under-reported for that outbreak. An Interesting Look at COVID-19

The important thing is to see the hospitalization and deaths number over the next 7-10 days. If there's not a sizable spike in either, that means the virus is weakening. Sure nobody wants to get sick, but the mortal fear factor may subside from the levels of just a few weeks ago.

They may have to settle for a medium sized one, but I can assure you for the right amount of money, something will get bumped or rescheduled.

Major metropolitan Republican mayors have gone the way of the snow leopards, not extinct but very rare. Politics have become too predictably divided between liberal urban-ites and conservative suburbia. It's been trending that way for a long time now. If...big IF... the corona virus subsides enough to host a packed convention, will the mayors still turn the convention away? It comes down to votes versus the economy.

The RNC convention is moving from Charlotte. Politics aside, this will be a blow to the local economy already missing out on revenue from all the other cancelled events. The new city and state has yet to be determined.

Probably coded a COVID-19 death too since was somehow related. As for the furloughs, yep, heard that from nurses too. You would not believe the number of surgeries that are elective, it's a huge portion of the hospital surgeries. Once elective surgeries were cancelled or delayed until deemed "safe", hospital staff had to be cut. They have budgets to meet like any other business.

In SC we are down to 6 deaths a day from 10 at the height of pandemic statewide several weeks ago. Still too high, but at least the numbers are going down despite no vaccine being available.

Italian doctors are now say COVID-19 is losing it's punch. While still transmittable, not nearly as lethal as the early/original strain. Virus Losing Lethal Potency in Italy

OH SNAP! We got ourselves a UPS-USPS smack down! I'm taken wagers....who ya got?

About 95% of the deaths are 60+. Again, it illustrates that demographic should use the utmost caution. Granted everyone should, but especially these people.

So 11% between 40 and 60. Under 40 was 1%, therefore 12% under the age of 60.

True and why the denominator is smaller than it should be in calculating the death rate. We know there's a LOT more people out there that have/had it and never got tested. The 1.7 million confirmed cases is way off as to the number of people who contracted this. How off? Nobody knows.

Get the data form the health departments, not news agencies. That's where I get SC's COVID info. It's purely data driven with ZERO agenda.

It's not a confirmed case unless you have been tested and it comes back positive. Think of the people that have been turned away because they weren't "ill enough". There was a co-worker of mine whose daughter had a high fever and a dry cough, but since the daughter was young they turned her away saying they needed to take in older and more ill patients. This was back in early April. The daughter felt better after about a week. Sound familiar?

In SC the number of deaths by age group is 99% over the age of 40 and 88% over the age of 60. The young have fared very well at 1% of fatalities, and Gen X has only a 12% mortality rate here in SC. So nearly 9 in 10 deaths are over the age of 60.

Possibly up to 80%. That's scary part as far as contracting it, but the silver lining is the death rate is no where near 6% if asymptomatic people that have been exposed is that high. It's literally impossible. Take 80% of the confirmed deaths/positive cases and that's probably closer to the real number: 1%-2%. Still unnervingly high, but more in line with the actual contracted number (known & unknown) compared to the number of deaths. Right now the figures are strictly going of confirmed positive cases only.

Where at and has death rate spiked? SC has a great site for very detailed information like this. Right now, the main problem areas are Columbia and Greenville. The rest of the state is in relatively good shape...even Myrtle beach and Charleston. The death rate has stayed fairly consistent since the spike of late April/early May. *knocks on wood it doesn't get worse*

This pandemic is hurting countries across the globe, we are hardly the only ones. America goes through some crisis roughly every decade. Some of which are worse than others, but the still cripples the country to some extent either through war, stock market woes, certain industry bubbles busting, inflation, pandemics, etc... A global pandemic is hardly our fault though and we are not shouldering the burden alone. Hopefully we get through this sooner rather than later and have a 10 year respite for before the next shoe drops.

A survey? I wonder how accurate a survey can be? Who did they survey, the health clinics or people themselves? Either way, that's a horrible measure of people who have the antibodies because they are probably going off of submitted tests results. As mentioned previously, if people don't know they are sick, why would they take a COVID-19 test? Typically they don't. The only way we will ever get a true measure is if the government sends out saliva kit and people return it like they would a census form in the mail and hopefully get 90%+ compliance. Anything less is sticking your finger in the wind and taking an educated guess, but a guess no less.

That was well before test kits were readily available too. I've seen a clinical study saying nearly 40% of COVID-19 patients were asymptomatic, but going back to the cruise ship article where a real life setting unfolded and 80% of the positive cases were asymptomatic???? Extrapolate that out and there's a sh!t-ton of people out there that never knew they even had it! The magical variable in this is how many people in America have likely got exposed to this virus and that will get you much closer to the true number of cases. Again, the 1.7 million confirmed cases is likely no where close the actual number of infected people considering asymptomatic folks range from 40%-80%.

My biggest take away from that article is that a helluva lot more than 1.7 million people in the U.S. have or had this virus.

No point to be made here, just an interesting read. Here is an excerpt: "Meanwhile, the second study, from Australian researchers, looked at 217 people on a cruise bound for Antarctica. The ship set sail in mid-March, just after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic. The first fever on board was reported eight days into the voyage. Over the following two weeks, eight people had to be evacuated from the ship because they fell ill. All of the 217 people who remained on board were tested for COVID-19. More than half (59 percent) tested positive, but just 19 percent of those patients had symptoms. The other 81 percent were symptom-free." Article on Asymptomatic People The reason I highlighted this section is these vacationers were confined to tight quarters with COVID-19 people and probably did not take immediate measures (quarantine, hand washing, social distancing, mask wearing etc...) to mitigate it as the WHO had just recently called it a pandemic. So this is more realistic than clinical studies because it occurred outside of a controlled setting without any preconceived notions or hypothesis. The article did not say if any of the medi-vaced patients or those that did show symptoms died from the disease.