LinvilleGorge

Sigh... this is so very reminiscent of last year. Just substitute "Sam Darnold" for "Teddy Bridgewater".

The defenses they faced weren't similar though. Back in those days, DBs could pretty much maul receivers.

The first couple chapters have been. We're hoping for a serious plot twist.

The majority of the QBs you listed played in an entirely different era of football that was far different than today's pass happy league. Yes, successful bust reclamation projects do happen. They're just rate. No, it's not unfair to call Darnold a bust. He absolutely was in NY. We're hoping he won't be in Carolina.

We did. Like it or not, we came back with Cam Erving.

It's not about just what I think. It's a reality that 1st round bust reclamation projects are rare. We're keenly aware of the success rate of 1st round QBs but we seem to be heavily downplaying the success rate of former busts (Darnold) and second rate vets (Teddy). We're trying to hit the jackpot on long shot bets.

We'll see. Fields may turn out to be a JAG but that's the beauty of the rookie wage scale. It lets you take chances on elite talent without crippling your cap. I was all about taking Cam #1 overall in large part due to the new at the time rookie wage scale. Had we been facing paying him like Sam Bradford was paid as a rookie I would've been a LOT more hesitant.

Yeah, their draft ammo is pretty gutted from past trades. I don't see how they would've had any real shot at coming up with an offer that would've gotten us to drop that far back.

We took a flyer last year too. We chose to once again go with a medium sized QB investment hoping to cash in big on long odds. Even as bad as the Panthers have been historically, top 10 picks are still a relative rarity. When you forego the opportunity to add a QB with one when you need a QB, you're mortgaging your future on that opportunity cost. We're doubtful to have one next year. Even if Darnold is bad, an improving young D and healthy CMC will likely be enough to keep us out of the top 10. In a couple of years, if Fields is a legit QB and we're still floundering at QB, we'll look back on this decision as the one that ultimately derailed the Rhule Era.

I think he has a decent shot but I certainly wouldn't be shocked if he isn't on the final roster.

Yep. Rhule has essentially admitted that himself.

If Darnold resurrects his career here then it's a GREAT move. It's just that we've bet heavily against the odds relying on that. Now we'll see whether or not that bet pays off.

Good reasonable response. I'd disagree on the draft capitol though. Trade values at the top of the draft have skewed big time over the years since the rookie wage scale was implemented. Those picks have become a lot more valuable now that they also don't come with massive contract that pays a rookie like an automatic future HOFer. Those picks allow you to make a bet on elite talent without the contract that type of elite talent normally requires.

Yep. If Fields pans out and Darnold doesn't while we continue to struggle on the fields, seats are probably gonna be red hot next year. This current regime will probably be down to their last swing at QB. They've been hesitant to bet big on a QB, but if this latest bet doesn't go their way they're hand is going to probably get very forced.

You've badly misrepresented my posts.

You're hilariously emotional about this. This isn't difficult to grasp. If Darnold continues to be bad (historically likely) while Fields or Jones ends up being legit then how exactly did we not mortgage the future on Darnold? The opportunity was there to add a franchise QB prospect and we passed due to Darnold. Darnold was available for "basically a 2nd round pick" because NFL teams know that he "basically sucks" and the success rate of former 1st rounds busts bouncing back elsewhere is very slim.

I get it, man. The concept of opportunity cost (and sunk cost for that matter) is lost on most people. Hell, most successful businesses don't even grasp it. The reality is that successful 1st round bust reclamation projects are pretty rare and we chose to forego the opportunity to add a franchise QB prospect based on one of those long shots. We may consider 1st round QB prospects risky (and to be honest, they are) but history says they're significantly less risky than the option we chose. We'll see how it plays out but we're betting against the odds.

It does. Rhule is keenly aware of the bust rate of 1st round QB while seemingly oblivious to the reality that historically 1st round bust reclamation projects fare considerably worse. I get it, he's hesitant to bet big on a QB because he doesn't want to lose big but ultimately, if he doesn't find a franchise QB he'll lose his job. They're a requirement in today's NFL and Tepper knows it, hence why he preaches coach, GM, QB. Everything else is a want. Those are the three must have pieces.

I don't think it's a matter of "if" with JJ. As soon as we drafted a LS in the 6th round, JJ was basically gone unless this kid forgets how to snap a football between now and TC.

Opportunity cost is very real. If Darnold continues to suck (honestly fairly likely based on NFL history) and Fields and/or Jones is legit (unknown, but probably pretty decent at least one of them works out based on NFL history of top 15 QB picks) then this decision is not gonna look good in the rearview unless Darnold turns out to be Clausen level bad netting us a top pick who becomes an NFL MVP (definitely the slimmest of odds discussed in this post).

Why is the concept of "opportunity cost" so difficult for some to grasp?

By forgoing the opportunity to draft a franchise QB we did mortgage the future on Darnold. Ultimately, this draft will be judged by A) whether Darnold pans out and B) whether Fields and/or Jones become legit franchise QBs. If Darnold continues to be bad while one or both of them prove legit then oh wee mayne. Not a good look and not good news for the future of the franchise.

Yep. Pro Day times are often much better than Combine times. Sometimes suspiciously so. Remember when Funchess ran 4.7 at the Combine then magically ran sub-4.5 at his Pro Day? Sure...

People lost their minds when I said the Panthers have mortgaged their future on Sam Darnold, then Gantt of Panthers.com writes... The Panthers did a lot of things over the weekend to make Darnold's life more secure. That's good news, but it also puts the bright light back on their quarterback. By not drafting one, and picking up Darnold's fifth-year option, they've cast their lot with the former Jets first-rounder, and done their best to insulate him. Now it's on him to prove that he can grow into the job and earn that trust. It may not be New York, but there's still plenty of pressure. That's NFL political talk for "mortgaging the future".

He'll have to show up and ball out to have a chance at the final roster. I think this staff is pretty much done with him.