carpanfan96

There's another way they could do it. Technically Joey Bosa's contract had 102m guaranteed but the fully guaranteed part was only 75m. So could see something similar where the fully guaranteed amount is 65m but the actual guaranteed amount be 90m.

My expected numbers

He's not gonna get 100m guaranteed. More like somewhere between 80-90m, maybe a little less. The deal I put out last night was 5 years 143m with 90m guaranteed

Lots are comparing to recent contracts and you can't do that anymore after Bosa. Watt, Bosa (both), Garrett, Parsons are all gonna be making 34-38m in a 1-2 years. 29.5-30m is gonna be what that second tier of pass rushers are going to make now that Bosa has reset the market for edge players. Burns is clearly in that 2nd group.

Oh no the Panthers initial offer was little over 23m aav on a 5 year deal. Think 5 years 115m with 60m guaranteed. That's what he turned down. Reason I went 29.5m is that he was turning down a contract that was 5m off of the current contracts before Bosa. He's not gonna go any lower than 5m under Bosa. He wants to be 2nd and by a margin.

Let's him and his agent say he's the 2nd highest paid edge player with the third most guaranteed of edge players. Could be off on the second part, but I think that's right.

The streak we had up here in Northern Illinois where we hit 115 heat index 3 days in a row with two days at 100 degrees was murder. No central air in the houses up here because it's not usually needed. Ong was it miserable

He doesn't anymore really. He did his first season in the league but not really anymore.

The first one of the season where he sacked Tom Brady and the Panthers won 21-3. That one.

21 - 3 vs Tampa earlier in the year. Burns had 1 sack and 2 tfl in the game.

Does burns deserve more than Payne and Simmons? 22.5 and 23.5m respectively

I said when we talked the other day that. it's because of the one year or two years depending on how you judge high level pass rushing. He also has a different job, he plays strong side and is depended on to normally set and hold the edge more than rushing. He got higher stats last year because of Watt missing time and moving over. Burns has 4 years of production and 3 years of high level pass rushing.

Joey got 102m guaranteed on a 27aav years ago. Watt got 80m guaranteed on 28m aav. Ignore Crosby and Highsmith taking less than they are worth. Ignore Garret, his contract is old at this point.

Highsmith cheated himself out of millions and we've had this discussion already. Completely different situations. Yeesh Doesn't matter if the fans don't like it, the above is how the NFL works.

An NFL agent's words and not mine. "If bosa is worth 30m than Burns should get 25-27m". Bosa was worth 34m, that means Burns is worth 29-31m. The above is how the NFL actually works.

68 on 951 snaps vs 90 on 748 snaps for last season.

Burns has played 3019 snaps vs Bosa at 2432 snaps. That equates to a sack every .012 for Burns vs .017 snaps for Bosa

.22 sacks per game or 3.7 sacks a season. Just putting the numbers out for people, so they don't have to do math.

Another thing I'd like to add that I think is being overlooked here. Is that those contracts for Joey Bosa and the others were signed a few seasons ago and a lot of the value is from cap% overall. So even if say Burns gets 29m which is more than Joey got, he will be making less % based on the overall cap numbers now. Nick actually got the same cap % as his brother did back when he signed his deal. They are essentially the same contract value wise based on cap numbers

If I was to say for sure on what Burns ends up getting, this is my best guess right now. 5 years, 142.5m with 90m guaranteed

Oh and to add no way Burns and his agent accept anything below 25m because that's what Bosa is getting on average in guaranteed money. Think 28-30m on salary and 60-70% of contract value as fully guaranteed

League has values for positions based on player performance on what would be considered ltbe and nltbe

I get what you are saying but that's not how contracts work. Burns will be the 2nd highest edge player after he signs and then in 2 years he will be 5th or 6th in pay. That's how contracts work for the most part in the NFL. Best player sets new precedent and bar, then other players get little above or close to that bar and that repeats over the length of the best players contract.

Here's a website talking about it. Link

Anything thats considered unlikely to be earned would get added as a bonus to the next year's salary. It's the incentives that are considered ltbe that need to be included in the cap for the current season.