Training Camp Roster Battles / Competitiveness by Position

[KB_fan]

appreciate the OP's work for this post, but I did chuckle when he had to leave for a meeting..we're not posting on the Huddle on company time, are we??   

 

looking forward to the offensive side.

LOL.  I'm basically my own boss, running a non-profit charity, with a team of colleagues. So it was not so much a case of posting on "company time," but yeah, I do have a report I need to finish tonight, and I'm going to be working late because of the time I took to post here.  My own stupidity, but the Huddle is such fun!

Good news, I have got the offense analysis posted... About to copy excerpts here.

[KB_fan]

I'm back.  I've got the analysis for the Offense's Training Camp battles posted in my blog.  I broke it into 2 parts as the software seems to get funky with too many tables.

Part 1 is here: http://www.carolinahuddle.com/boards/blogs/entry/26-training-camp-2015-roster-battles-offense-part-1/

It covers QBs; FBs; RBs; TEs;

QBs and FBs are a bit non-competitive, so I won't post those thoughts in full here.  In brief, I don't see how Webb can make the roster.  I think we'll only have 2 QBs; and I assume Tolbert is a lock, though I too am excited by Ward and would love to find a way to keep him.

RUNNING BACK:  (4)  This competition decreased a bit yesterday with the news that Darrin Reaves has been waived.  I know there’s been some suggestion that Fozzy is not a lock this year, but I am pretty confident he is.  J. Stew, Fozzy and CAP seem certain to make the roster.  I assume we’ll carry 4 backs, and so that opens a spot for Todman or Wegher.  I’ve given the edge to Todman as a veteran.  There’s a lot of excitement about Wegher.  I assume he’s a strong candidate for the Practice Squad.  However depending on injury concerns, and CAP’s progress, I think there remains a slim chance we might carry 5 RBs to start the season.

Name	Position	BBR – Voth	D Newton 53	My opinon
Stewart, Jonathan	RB	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Whittaker, Fozzy	RB	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Artis-Payne, Cameron	RB	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Todman, Jordan	RB	Facing a Fight	Yes	V. Possible
Wegher, Brandon	RB	Facing a Fight	Cut	Possible
Reaves, Darrin (Waived)	RB	Facing a Fight	Cut	Possible

 

TIGHT ENDS (3):   Assuming we carry 3 TEs, this looks to be a battle between Richie Brockel & Brandon Williams for the 3^rd spot.  I’ve given the nod to Brockel thanks to his higher PFF grade from last year.  I think B. Williams will be one of the most obvious casualties of our roster depth this year and predict he won’t make the team.  I don’t know a lot about Childers or Simonson, but my guess is they’re going to find it hard even to get on the PS given how much depth we have at several other positions – even PS places are going to be at a premium.

Name	Position	BBR – Voth	D Newton 53	My opinon
Olsen, Greg	TE	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Dickson, Ed	TE	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Brockel, Richie	TE	Facing a Fight	Yes	Probable
Williams, Brandon	TE	Facing a Fight	Yes	possible
Childers, Jamie	TE	Longshot	Cut	Longshot
Simonson, Scott	TE	Longshot	Cut	Longshot

 

Continued in part 2 (below) for analysis of Offensive Line, Wide Receivers and summary thoughts on the offense roster overall.

 

[KB_fan]

Now the OLINE:

OFFENSIVE LINE (10) [Centers 2; Guards 4; Tackles 4]: 

This will quite possibly be THE most closely watched position group at training camp, for three reasons: 1) to assess quality of our players (especially LT); 2) to see who makes the roster and 3) to determine the starting order & depth chart. 

The July 27^th retirement of Jonathan Martin and the signing yesterday of two unknown OTs (Tony Hills and Davonte Wallace) have shaken up some of these predictions. 

For now, I’m pretty confident there are 6 LOCKS:  Kalil (starting center); Norwell & Turner (starting guards);  Oher (Starting LT), Remmers (Starting RT) and Daryl Williams (backup RT).  

That means there are likely 4 backup spots being fought for, most likely 1 center, 2 guards, 1 tackle, though some players may be able to play multiple roles on the O Line, meaning the center / guard / tackle designation is a bit fluid.  I believe Folkerts is a pretty sure bet as backup center unless it’s obvious one of the other OLine candidates can also play center, leaving 9 players battling for 3 remaining slots.  With Martin’s departure, I’d now have to say that the chance of making the team has significantly improved for returning Panthers vets Silatolu, Chandler & Scott.  (I know this will elicit groans.)  Previously (with Martin on the 90 man roster) I had thought at least one of them was surely on the bubble.  However, although I've pegged these 3 to make the team, given the weakness and inconsistencies / injury history of these three players, there is quite a wide open door for one of the unknowns to shine, just as Remmers & Norwell did last season.  So here is where the “longshots” truly have the most realistic chance to breakthrough, I believe. 

Name	Position	BBR – Voth	D Newton 53	My opinon
Kalil, Ryan	C	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Folkerts, Brian	C	Facing a Fight	Cut	Probable
Name	Position	BBR – Voth	D Newton 53	My opinon
Norwell, Andrew	OG	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Turner, Trai	OG	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Silatolu, Amini	OG	Facing a Fight	Yes	likely
Scott, Chris	OG	Facing a Fight	Cut	likely
Henry, Ricky	OG	Longshot	Cut	Longshot
McCray, Jordan	OG	Longshot	Cut	Longshot
Name	Position	BBR – Voth	D Newton 53	My opinon
Oher, Michael	OT	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Remmers, Mike	OT	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Williams, Daryl	OT	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Chandler, Nate	OT	Facing a Fight	Yes	likely
Foucault, David	OT	Facing a Fight	Cut	possible
Wallace, Martin	OT	Longshot	Cut	longshot
Wallace, Davonte	OT	N/A (new signing)	N/A (new signing)	longshot
Hills, Tony	OT	N/A (new signing)	N/A (new signing)	longshot
Martin, Jonathan (retired July 27)	OT	Facing a Fight	Yes	Probable

[KB_fan]

And finally, the Wideouts: (Note this was written BEFORE today's news of Hill & marijuana.)

WIDE RECEIVERS (6):  This is the other position group for the offense that really has people buzzing.  12 receivers, competing for a likely 6 slots, with some strong reasons to like and root for at least 7 or 8 of these players.  Do you go for veterans or youth?  Speed?  Sure hands?  Trust and confidence of the staff & QB?  Who can play on special teams?  It makes for an intriguing battle.  All the evidence points to 4 LOCKS:  Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess, Ted Ginn (especially for his ST return role), and Corey Brown (speed, routes).

Among the remaining 8 guys, I have to give the nod to Cotchery & Bersin - Cotchery as a vet the coaches love as a mentor for the younger players, and Bersin given his good hands, clutch catches last year and his rapport with Cam.  But these two are NOT locks, and if Hill or Byrd shine once the pads are on, there could be a surprise here… I think it likely that 1 or 2 WRs will make the practice squad, especially since I’m pretty sure that, if he makes it, this would be Cotchery’s last year on the team and we’d want to develop new talent.

Name	Position	BBR - Voth	D Newton 53	My opinon
Benjamin, Kelvin	WR	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Funchess, Devin	WR	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Brown, Corey	WR	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Ginn, Jr., Ted	WR	Lock	Yes	LOCK
Cotchery, Jerricho	WR	Lock	Yes	V. Likely
Bersin, Brenton	WR	Facing a Fight	Cut	V. Likely
Hill, Stephen	WR	Facing a Fight	Yes	Possible
Boykin, Jarrett	WR	Facing a Fight	Cut	Possible
Byrd, Damiere	WR	Longshot	Cut	Possible
Brown, Mike	WR	Longshot	Cut	Longshot
Lucas, Marcus	WR	Longshot	Cut	Longshot
Presley, De'Andre	WR	Longshot	Cut	Longshot

 So there you have the analysis of the offense.  If my predictions are correct, the numbers on the roster for the offense would breakdown as follows

QB = 2;  TE = 3; FB = 1; RB = 4; C = 2; OG = 4; OT = 4; WR = 6.  Total Offense = 26

Of these 26 players, I have 18 classed as “locks”; and 2 as “probable” (near locks).  6 others who I think likely to make the team are classified as “very likely” or “likely” and some of the longshots could still have a real chance if they shine at camp.  Below these 26 are 8 other players who were on the roster last year or who in many other years might have a strong chance to make the team.  Some good players such as Joe Webb and Brandon Williams may well be cut, and competition for the practice squad looks to be pretty intense with some exciting candidates like Lee Ward, Brandon Wegher, and Damiere Byrd all vying for space.

It should all make for a very exciting training camp!

 

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

Good Chance for Jason Trusnik, Kurt Coleman, and possibly even Pat Tillman all to miss the 53 if the team wants to make sure they get that third round comp pick for Greg Hardy.

I am 100% certain Pat TIllman does not make our final 53. 

[KB_fan]

For those who can't get enough roster analysis and pre-camp speculation (LOL - I'm guilty as charged!);

Joe Person actually has a very readable and good article at the Observer on 5 veterans who are on the bubble.  He gives very succinct and clear reasons pro & con as to why they may / may not make the team.  Worth a read:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article29361121.html

Also, on the team's site, there's a nice training camp preview with highlights about a couple of key position battles:

Seven training camp story lines

[Daddy_Uncle]

Good Chance for Jason Trusnik, Kurt Coleman, and possibly even Pat Tillman all to miss the 53 if the team wants to make sure they get that third round comp pick for Greg Hardy.

I don't like Pat Tillman's chances of making the team

[KB_fan]

By the way, I wanted to note here my apologies for not including Jeremy's 53 man roster projection in the tablesabove which include BBR (Bill Voth's) & David Newton's projections.  Believe it or not, even though Jeremy's roster projection is pinned on the home page, I couldn't find it when I searched the other day.  (I'd forgotten it was on the home page, so I tried a search, but was thinking it was posted in early July and didn't look back far enough in my search results.)  His projection still looks really solid on the eve of training camp.

Igo's 53 man roster projection June 2015

[pantherphan96]

I agree on most, but I would say Colin Jones is a lock while Coleman is still an unknown. Also not sure about White and Houston at CB, could see Williams replacing one of them with his usefulness at ST. LB will definitely be the position battle to watch on the defensive side.

I think there will be more open position battles on the offensive side: WR, RB, OL.

[AU-panther]

The RB, FB, and TE groups are interesting because a few of those players, namely Tolbert and Brockel, are kind of hybrids.  Tolbert is a RB/FB mix and Brockel is a TE that is often used in a FB type role.  If I'm not mistaken Brockel and Ward are similar size.

Last year we had 8 players on the roster in those 3 positions at the start of the year.

3 traditional RBs:  Williams, Stewart, and Fozzy

FB/RB: Tolbert

TE/FB: Brockel

3 traditional TEs:  Olsen, Dickson, Williams

I could see the competition being as such:

RB: Stewart

RB: CAP

RB:  Fozzy or Todman

RB/FB : Tolbert

FB/TE:  Brockel or Ward

TE:  Olsen

TE:  Dickson

TE:  Williams

I could easily be wrong, but I'm not convinced we are going to keep 4 running backs plus Tolbert.  That would probably only leave 3 spots for TEs.  I would think we would want at least 3 pass catching TEs.  In that case Brockel would be out.  I'm not saying Brockel is a lock by any stretch but the role he plays (FB, H-back, blocking TE, ST) is something the coaches might be looking for from someone or a combination of players.

If anything 4 traditional running backs might be redundant and in reality a 4th running back isn't going to see the field too much anyway.  You can always keep a 4th running back on the practice squad incase someone gets hurt during the season.

With all of that being said the coaches might decide to only keep 9 OL or 5 WRs and in that case we could carry an extra at the RB position.

[KB_fan]

Nice write up AU-Panther.  You have some good points, and you're right, those hybrid type of roles makes these players interesting to consider.

Ron R and the other coaches are big fans of Brockel based on these comments from an Aug 2014 article.    Somehow that stuck in my mind, and it was one of the reasons I gave Brockel the edge over B. Williams

“Richie is a jack of all trades. He does things that we need. He does the dirty work,” Rivera said. “There’s a toughness about Richie, too, that I like, that helps transfer over to his teammates. That’s important as well.

“I think the thing about guys like him is you get enough good, tough, physical football players and it spreads to the other guys that need it.”  ...

His teammates and coaches appreciate the total package.

“He’s one of the best role players I’ve ever coached,” said tight ends coach Pete Hoener, who has coached in college and the NFL for 40 years. Tight end “Greg (Olsen) is very intelligent when it comes to football. Richie’s the same way. He understands the total game, can play any position related to what he does, and do it well.”

 

 

[KB_fan]

I was really surprised today in scrolling the web to come across an excellent & comprehensive Panthers' Training Camp Preview / Analysis by Brian Knowles at one of those inferior sites (br).  I found it really worth reading.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2534772-complete-carolina-panthers-training-camp-preview

Here are a few sections that I found particularly interesting / well-written:

First, a good introduction to set the stage, reminding us that this is still a team whose promise & identity is a bit uncertain:

The Panthers are in a bit of an odd place, historically. They finished 7-8-1 last season and will be trying to return to the winning ways they showed in 2013, when they were 12-4. That 2013 season remains their only winning record in the past six seasons, so there’s a sense of trying to figure out whatever made that season successful and recapturing it.

On the other hand, they’re the defending NFC South champions and look to be in a solid place to at least have a good shot at repeating. The New Orleans Saints lost a bunch of talent this offseason, the Atlanta Falcons are trying to work in a new coach bringing with him a new defensive philosophy and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a rookie starting at quarterback. When you’re the defending division champion as well as being the most stable of any of the franchises in the division, that bodes well for the future of your team.

We’ll find out which superficial label—losing record or division champion—best fits the franchise during this training camp

Analyzing the defense:

By the end of the season, the Panthers defense was elite—they finished as the third-best in weighted DVOA when you include the playoff run, according to Football Outsiders.  That about matches what they were able to do in 2013, but they started last season more poorly.  Before the bye week, they allowed the eighth-most yards in football.  After it, they allowed the third-fewest.

What was the difference?  It was gradual, certainly, and effected by the quality of opponent, but it also had to do with young players entering the lineup and playing well.  Bene’ Benwikere returned to the starting lineup after injuries to provide very solid cornerback play, especially for a rookie.  Tre Boston took over at free safety for good in Week 14.  Kony Ealy, after significantly struggling early on, found a pass rush that had been sorely lacking in Greg Hardy’s absence.  All three were 2014 draft picks, and while they took a while to get into the lineup and/or play well, they turned it on down the stretch.

Will Ealy continue his late-season form?  Pro Football Focus had him as the worst member of the Panthers defense last season with a -14.9 grade overall, but his grade was a much more palatable -0.9 over the last five weeks of the season—most of the damage was done earlier on.  He also graded out positively in terms of the pass-rush, with 10 quarterback pressures post-bye compared to just eight before it.

On "Filling the Void" for certain key players who have left:

RB DeAngelo Williams (now in Pittsburgh) / Darrin Reaves (Unsigned)
Darrin Reaves was cut on July 28^th; he received more running back snaps than anyone other than Jonathan Stewart last season.  Williams suffered with injuries, and missed significant chunks of last season.  That leaves the primary backup running back position open for a battle between free-agent acquisition Jordan Todman, rookie Cameron Artis-Payne and the returning Fozzy Whittaker.  I’d have Artis-Payne in the lead for carries and Todman in the lead for pass protection.  We’ll see how that breaks down in terms of snaps.

On "Veterans with something to prove"

DT Colin Cole (2015 cap hit: $1,050,000)
The Panthers brought Cole back on a one-year deal this offseason to provide interior defensive line depth, but only $80,000 of his contract is guaranteed, so that deal shouldn’t be considered as guaranteeing he’ll be around.  Cole is also 35 years old, which is getting up there for a defensive lineman.  I’m not overly thrilled with Cole’s quality, though there’s something to be said for veteran presence.  Still, if signs of age hit him during camp, I wouldn’t be stunned to see someone like Micanor Regis, who received some praise during OTAs, per Black and Blue Review, push him out of a role.

DE Mario Addison (2015 cap hit: $1,020,000)
Addison’s under contract for two more seasons thanks to a 2014 extension, but he finds himself in what should be a very competitive competition for snaps at Greg Hardy’s old position.  Addison has the highest cap hit of the bunch, which includes Kony Ealy, Frank Alexander as Wes Horton.  If this becomes a situation where the players are at roughly the same level of performance, Addison’s larger cap number might make him the odd man out.  There’s probably enough room on the depth chart to keep everyone around, but Addison is going to have to prove that he’s worth the larger salary-cap impact he brings with him.

There's much more - this is a 7 page article.  Lots of interesting stories to watch play out in the next 3 - 5 weeks.

[KendrickPanther]

The problem with Klein is he doesn't have the speed to cover  in our system. That makes him a run stuffer and special teamer. I like him, but it's becoming clear he won't fit our scheme as a starter. I think he makes the team because he's a good football player. But I could see him getting cut. 

[KendrickPanther]

Also some of these long schots will make it via injury to locks. Some will get brought back in during the season. Glanton was cut in September, starter in December.